Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
Analysis from us
Man Utd sit 17th in the Premier League after taking 7 points from 9 games. Aston Villa sit 10th with 12 points from 9, 5 points ahead.
Across their last 6 games, Man Utd recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 5 scored and 11 conceded. Aston Villa's last 6 matches brought 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 9 goals scored and 9 conceded.
During the season, both teams scored in 56% of Man Utd matches, and 33% went over 2.5 goals. Aston Villa's figures are 56% and 56%. Man Utd's expected goals per game are 1.53 created and 1.66 allowed. Aston Villa's figures are 1.20 created and 1.68 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results list 4 meetings between these sides. Man Utd took 2 wins, Aston Villa took 1 and 1 ended level. The most recent meeting, on Sunday 15 March 2026, ended with Man United 3-1 Aston Villa.
Martinez and Shaw are both regular starters this season, and Man Utd are expected to be without them.
Cash and Wan-Bissaka are both regular starters this season, and Aston Villa are expected to be without them.
Expected goals stand at 1.76 for Man Utd and 1.40 for Aston Villa, with the model making a Man Utd win likeliest at 45%, the draw 24%, Aston Villa 30%.
We predict Manchester United 2-1 Aston Villa. At 11.1%, 1-1 has the highest chance of any exact score. Within the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest.
Man Utd vs Aston Villa stats
| Per game |  Man Utd |  Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.4 / 4.2 | 4.5 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.15 / 1.96 | 1.57 / 1.46 |
| Per game | Man Utd | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.67 | 1.44 |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.1 / 4.1 | 3.7 / 4.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.53 / 1.66 | 1.20 / 1.68 |
| Per game | Man Utd | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 4.8 | 3.0 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.88 / 1.72 | 1.24 / 1.72 |
| Per game | Man Utd | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.5 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 1.8 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Man Utd win | 45% | 6/5 |
| Draw | 24% | 3/1 | |
| Aston Villa win | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Double chance | Man Utd or draw | 70% | 4/9 |
| Aston Villa or draw | 55% | 5/6 | |
| Draw no bet | Man Utd | 60% | 4/6 |
| Aston Villa | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 4/7 |
| No | 37% | 7/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | 1/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 8/13 | |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 13/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 13/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Man Utd and yes | 26% | 3/1 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Aston Villa and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Result and goals | Man Utd and over 2.5 | 32% | 9/4 |
| Aston Villa and over 2.5 | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Man Utd and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Aston Villa and under 2.5 | 9% | 10/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Man Utd / Man Utd | 28% | 5/2 |
| Aston Villa / Aston Villa | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Man Utd | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51% | 10/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 61% | 4/6 |
| Over 4.5 | 44% | 5/4 |
Our fair price is 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't yet have UK bookmaker prices for this match. They usually appear on football-data.co.uk two or three days before kick-off.
Chances for goalscorers and cards
| Man Utd | Mbeumo MID | 4 | 4.2 | 40% | 6/4 | 20% |
| Man Utd | B.Fernandes MID | 3 | 3.0 | 33% | 2/1 | 22% |
| Man Utd | Rashford MID | 0 | 0.8 | 19% | 4/1 | 0% |
| Man Utd | Cunha MID | 1 | 1.4 | 19% | 4/1 | 0% |
| Aston Villa | Manzambi MID | 2 | 1.6 | 31% | 9/4 | 18% |
| Aston Villa | McGinn MID | 1 | 2.4 | 30% | 5/2 | 22% |
| Aston Villa | N.Jackson FWD | 5 | 2.2 | 27% | 11/4 | 22% |
| Aston Villa | Buendía MID | 1 | 1.6 | 23% | 10/3 | 25% |
The Fantasy Premier League feed provides player goals, xG, minutes and bookings. Each chance also combines these with our team goal expectation. We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.
Expected starting XIs
Man Utd 4-2-3-1 formation.
- Senne LammensGK
- Yoro, Leny.DEF
- Dalot, Diogo.DEF
- Santos, Andrey.MID
- Maguire, Harry.DEF
- Martínez, Lisandro.DEF
- Diallo, Amad.MID
- Baleba, Carlos.MID
- Mbeumo, Bryan.FWD
- Fernandes, Bruno.MID
- Cunha, Matheus.MID
They began the game at Chelsea on Sat 31 Oct.
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
- SuzukiGK · 8 starts
- LindelöfDEF · 9 starts
- MaatsenDEF · 6 starts
- PauDEF · 5 starts
- MingsDEF · 4 starts
- KamaraMID · 9 starts
- McGinnMID · 8 starts
- BuendíaMID · 7 starts
- GomesMID · 5 starts
- ManzambiMID · 5 starts
- N.JacksonFWD · 8 starts
Cash (Suspended until 21 Nov) and Wan-Bissaka (Hamstring injury) are out or doubtful.
For Premier League clubs, the Fantasy Premier League availability flags sit alongside each player's starts this season. For other clubs, ESPN supplies the eleven who started their latest match. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, they replace these about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
Aston Villa, 11 games; Man Utd, 10 games. This season's ESPN match events show goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 9.9, with Man Utd 5.6 and Aston Villa 4.3 (league 9.9).
- Yellow cards expected 4.4(league 3.8)
Latest form
Manchester United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Chelsea | 0-2 | L |
| Sun 25 Oct | v Bournemouth | 0-3 | L |
| Sun 18 Oct | at Leeds | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Tottenham | 1-1 | D |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Fulham | 1-1 | D |
| Wed 16 Sep | v Brighton | 2-3 | L |
Read the scores with Man Utd first.
Aston Villa
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Fulham | 1-1 | D |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Bournemouth | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Man City | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Newcastle | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Brentford | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Tottenham | 3-2 | W |
Read the scores with Aston Villa first.
Head to head
| Sun 15 Mar 2026 | Premier League | Man United 3-1 Aston Villa | 0-0 | 12 |
| Sun 21 Dec 2025 | Premier League | Aston Villa 2-1 Man United | 1-1 | 10 |
| Sun 25 May 2025 | Premier League | Man United 2-0 Aston Villa | 0-0 | 7 |
| Sun 6 Oct 2024 | Premier League | Aston Villa 0-0 Man United | 0-0 | 9 |
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds United | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry City | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
The table comes from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.