Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction
Our breakdown
Nottm Forest sit 19th in the Premier League, earning 6 points over 9 games. Man City hold 2nd place on 21 points from 9 games, 15 points clear.
Across their last 6 games, Nottm Forest recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 4 scored and 9 conceded. From their last 6 matches, Man City took 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 14 and allowing 10.
This season, 44% of Nottm Forest games featured both teams scoring and 33% had over 2.5 goals; Man City’s figures are 56% and 67%. In expected goals, Nottm Forest generate 1.63 each game and concede 1.03. Man City generate 2.07 and concede 1.27.
Since August 2024, our results show 4 meetings, with 1 win for Nottm Forest, 2 for Man City and 1 draw. Wednesday 4 March 2026 saw the latest meeting end Man City 2-2 Nott'm Forest.
Semenyo, a regular starter this season, is expected to be missing for Man City.
The model gives a Man City win the highest chance, 48%, based on expected goals of 1.12 (Nottm Forest) and 1.62 (Man City). The other chances are Nottm Forest 26% and the draw 26%.
Our prediction is Forest 0-1 Manchester City. A 1-1 exact score has the highest single chance at 12.4%. Of the result we favor, 0-1 is the most likely score.
Stats for Nottm Forest v Man City
| Per game |  Nottm Forest |  Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 3.2 | 5.8 / 3.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.70 / 1.03 | 2.01 / 1.05 |
| Per game | Nottm Forest | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.67 | 2.22 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.7 / 4.1 | 6.0 / 3.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.63 / 1.03 | 2.07 / 1.27 |
| Per game | Nottm Forest | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.0 | 6.5 / 4.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 0.90 / 0.84 | 1.54 / 0.80 |
| Per game | Nottm Forest | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 2.8 / 5.2 | 5.2 / 2.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 1.5 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Nottm Forest win | 26% | 3/1 |
| Draw | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Man City win | 48% | 21/20 | |
| Double chance | Nottm Forest or draw | 52% | 10/11 |
| Man City or draw | 74% | 1/3 | |
| Draw no bet | Nottm Forest | 35% | 15/8 |
| Man City | 65% | 8/15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 5/6 |
| No | 45% | 6/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 3/10 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 11/10 | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Nottm Forest and yes | 13% | 13/2 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Man City and yes | 23% | 10/3 | |
| Result and goals | Nottm Forest and over 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 |
| Man City and over 2.5 | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Nottm Forest and under 2.5 | 11% | 17/2 | |
| Man City and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Man City / Man City | 30% | 9/4 |
| Draw / Man City | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Nottm Forest / Nottm Forest | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 55% | 4/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 47% | 11/10 |
| Over 4.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed has no UK bookmaker prices for this match yet. football-data.co.uk usually adds them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Chances for goalscorers and cards
| Nottm Forest | Delap FWD | 1 | 2.7 | 23% | 10/3 | 25% |
| Nottm Forest | Gibbs-White MID | 1 | 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | 0% |
| Nottm Forest | Ndoye MID | 2 | 2.3 | 16% | 5/1 | 11% |
| Nottm Forest | Muñoz DEF | 0 | 1.1 | 11% | 8/1 | 15% |
| Man City | Haaland FWD | 9 | 6.6 | 44% | 5/4 | 0% |
| Man City | Foden MID | 1 | 2.3 | 36% | 7/4 | 22% |
| Man City | O'Reilly DEF | 0 | 1.2 | 21% | 7/2 | 22% |
| Man City | Cherki MID | 4 | 1.8 | 21% | 4/1 | 28% |
The Fantasy Premier League feed provides player goals, xG, minutes and bookings; our chances combine them with each team’s expected goals. We list only players who’re at least 75% likely to play.
Line-up predictions
Nottm Forest 4-2-3-1
- SelsGK · 9 starts
- MurilloDEF · 9 starts
- Williams, N.DEF · 9 starts
- Cunha, Jair.DEF · 7 starts
- MuñozDEF · 6 starts
- McAteeMID · 9 starts
- NdoyeMID · 9 starts
- Gibbs-WhiteMID · 8 starts
- SchlagerMID · 8 starts
- Sangaré, I.MID · 1 starts
- DelapFWD · 7 starts
Out or doubtful: Jesus, Igor (Calf injury)
City 4-2-3-1.
- DonnarummaGK · 9 starts
- RúbenDEF · 9 starts
- GuéhiDEF · 8 starts
- GvardiolDEF · 7 starts
- Matheus N.DEF · 5 starts
- AndersonMID · 8 starts
- NdiayeMID · 8 starts
- EnzoMID · 6 starts
- CherkiMID · 6 starts
- FodenMID · 4 starts
- HaalandFWD · 9 starts
Semenyo (Knee injury) is out or doubtful.
For Premier League teams, each player's starts this season come with Fantasy Premier League availability flags. Once ESPN's confirmed teams are named, they replace these about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
You're looking at Nottm Forest, 10 games and Man City, 11 games. This season's goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- The corner total expected is 10.2 (league 9.9; Nottm Forest 4.1 and Man City 6.2).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6 (league 3.8).
Form in recent matches
Nottingham Forest
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Brentford | 0-2 | L |
| Fri 23 Oct | at Ipswich | 1-1 | D |
| Sun 18 Oct | v Arsenal | 0-1 | L |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Crystal Palace | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Coventry | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 12 Sep | at Aston Villa | 2-1 | W |
Nottm Forest is listed first in the scores.
Manchester City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Brighton | 0-1 | L |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Brighton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Aston Villa | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Ipswich | 3-2 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Liverpool | 3-0 | W |
| Sun 20 Sep | v Sunderland | 5-3 | W |
Man City is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Wed 4 Mar 2026 | Premier League | Man City 2-2 Nott'm Forest | 1-0 | 7 |
| Sat 27 Dec 2025 | Premier League | Nott'm Forest 1-2 Man City | 0-0 | 10 |
| Sat 8 Mar 2025 | Premier League | Nott'm Forest 1-0 Man City | 0-0 | 5 |
| Wed 4 Dec 2024 | Premier League | Man City 3-0 Nott'm Forest | 2-0 | 10 |
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
ESPN provided these standings, dated Wednesday 4 November.