Closing line value
Understand closing line value, why beating the closing price shows the strongest sign of a good bet, and where our own tips stand.
What this is
The price just before kick-off is the closing line, once team news is out and most of the money has come in. Closing line value measures how much better the price you got was. When a team you backed at 2.2 closes at 2.0, you took 10% CLV.
Why it's important
For hundreds of bets, results swing on luck. CLV doesn't: if you continue to beat the closing price, your odds are better than the market's own best guess, and that is what wins over time.
How we make use of it
We keep the posted price on every tip we publish, then note the closing price alongside it. Month by month, the record lists CLV alongside points and strike rate.
Of the 1,440 tips we've graded so far, the posted price came out ahead of the closing price 47% of the time, giving an average CLV of +0.9%. Source: our record of back-test plus live tips.