Football tips record
From 4 November 2026 on, each tip we post stays at the price we posted, then gets graded: points at level stakes, plus strike rate and closing line value, across the last 7, 30 and 365 days. Any row dated before 4 November 2026 comes from a walk-forward back-test: each week the model is refitted using earlier games only, and tips use early odds from football-data.co.uk before being compared with closing odds.
- Points: -2.0pts.Since 4 Nov it has been live: 2 tips posted, 2 settled, 0% won.
- Points figure: -9.1.For the last 7 days, back-test and live results include 16 tips, 25% won, and CLV +0.7%.
- Points: -0.0pts.For the last 30 days, back-test and live results include 72 tips, 54% won, and CLV +1.6%.
- Points: -30.2pts.Last 365 days, back-test and live: 1024 tips, 54% won, CLV +0.8%.
Split by market and window
| Market | 7 days: pts | tips | won | 30 days: pts | tips | won | 365 days: pts | tips | won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All tips | -9.1 | 16 | 25% | -0.0 | 72 | 54% | -30.2 | 1024 | 54% |
| Match result | -1.2 | 3 | 33% | +0.2 | 7 | 57% | +4.3 | 109 | 59% |
| Over/under 2.5 | -7.9 | 13 | 23% | -0.2 | 65 | 54% | -34.6 | 915 | 54% |
Each month
| November 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0% | -2.0 | -100.0% | +0.0% |
| October 2026 | 75 | 42 | 56% | +2.1 | +2.9% | +1.7% |
| September 2026 | 85 | 43 | 51% | -8.6 | -10.2% | +1.9% |
| August 2026 | 88 | 49 | 56% | +0.4 | +0.5% | +1.6% |
| May 2026 | 30 | 19 | 63% | +5.6 | +18.7% | +1.0% |
| April 2026 | 120 | 59 | 49% | -16.5 | -13.7% | -0.9% |
| March 2026 | 115 | 69 | 60% | +8.7 | +7.6% | +0.2% |
| February 2026 | 124 | 67 | 54% | -5.4 | -4.4% | +1.5% |
| January 2026 | 131 | 69 | 53% | -6.4 | -4.9% | +1.4% |
| December 2025 | 147 | 78 | 53% | -7.1 | -4.9% | +0.4% |
| November 2025 | 125 | 69 | 55% | -0.6 | -0.5% | +0.7% |
| October 2025 | 117 | 62 | 53% | -5.8 | -5.0% | +1.0% |
| September 2025 | 134 | 69 | 51% | -9.0 | -6.7% | +0.7% |
| August 2025 | 149 | 76 | 51% | -11.5 | -7.7% | +1.5% |
Rows dated before 4 November 2026 form a walk-forward back-test rather than posted tips. Each row starting 4 November 2026 is a live tip from the ledger. Get all graded tips (CSV).
Split by competition
| National League | 313 | 60% | +15.5 | +5.0% |
| Scottish Premiership | 106 | 56% | +1.2 | +1.1% |
| Premier League | 163 | 51% | -9.6 | -5.9% |
| League One | 274 | 54% | -12.3 | -4.5% |
| League Two | 331 | 51% | -21.6 | -6.5% |
| Championship | 255 | 49% | -29.3 | -11.5% |
Does 60% really mean 60%?
| We said | It happened | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|
| 8% | 10% | 59 |
| 17% | 16% | 682 |
| 26% | 26% | 4749 |
| 34% | 34% | 2537 |
| 45% | 44% | 1639 |
| 54% | 55% | 771 |
| 64% | 66% | 254 |
| 74% | 80% | 66 |
For 3,590 matches back-tested since August 2025, the home, away and draw chances are grouped in 10-point bands.
Tips that are live
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Posted price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Bristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers | Under 2.5 | 10/11 bet365 | lost 1-2 |
| 2026-11-04 | Cardiff City v West Ham United | West Ham United | evens Sky Bet | lost 3-3 |
How tips get settled
One point is staked on each tip at the price we posted. If a match is postponed, it's void and drops out of the record. An abandoned match is settled under the bookmaker's rule. In an acca, a void leg drops out, and the remaining legs stand at the posted prices.