Cardiff City vs West Ham United prediction
With the margin removed, the market's average of 6 UK bookmakers puts West Ham 48%, Cardiff 28% and the draw 23%.
We tipped a West Ham win at evens, and it lost.
What the model predicted
In the Championship, Cardiff sit 18th on 14 points from 13 games. West Ham, 8th in the table, have 22 points from 13 and lead by 8.
Across their last 6 matches, Cardiff took 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 9. West Ham's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, 13 goals scored and 9 conceded.
So far this season, 69% of Cardiff's matches saw both teams score, and 62% went past 2.5 goals; West Ham's numbers are 69% and 77%. Cardiff's expected goals stand at 1.85 a game, with 1.66 allowed; West Ham's are 2.02 created and 1.27 allowed.
Our model rates a West Ham win as the likeliest outcome at 57%, with Cardiff 22% and the draw 20%. That call comes from expected goals: Cardiff 1.42, West Ham 2.34. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers price it at 48%, so our rating sits above the market.
Score we predict: Cardiff City 1-2 West Ham United.
Stats: Cardiff v West Ham
| Per game |  Cardiff |  West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.8 | 7.4 / 4.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.89 / 1.85 | 1.67 / 1.25 |
| Per game | Cardiff | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.46 | 2.54 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 77% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 31% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.7 / 4.8 | 6.9 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.85 / 1.66 | 2.02 / 1.27 |
| Per game | Cardiff | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.17 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.3 / 3.5 | 7.3 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 2.60 / 1.32 | 1.78 / 1.59 |
Fair prices and top UK odds
| Match result | Cardiff win | 22% | 7/2 | 11/4 Betway | -18.1% |
| Draw | 20% | 4/1 | 10/3 Betway | -11.8% | |
| West Ham win | 57% | 8/11 | evens Sky Bet | +15.0% | |
| Double chance | Cardiff or draw | 43% | 11/8 | ||
| West Ham or draw | 78% | 2/7 | |||
| Draw no bet | Cardiff | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| West Ham | 72% | 2/5 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 4/9 | ||
| No | 31% | 9/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 89% | 2/17 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 4/11 | 2/5 bet365 | +1.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 11/4 | 2/1 bet365 | -17.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 10/11 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Cardiff and yes | 15% | 11/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| West Ham and yes | 36% | 7/4 | |||
| Result and goals | Cardiff and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | ||
| West Ham and over 2.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |||
| Cardiff and under 2.5 | 5% | 18/1 | |||
| West Ham and under 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | West Ham / West Ham | 38% | 13/8 | ||
| Draw / West Ham | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Cardiff / Cardiff | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 65% | 8/15 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 55% | 5/6 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 43% | 11/8 |
A fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which lists only match odds plus over/under 2.5. Edge shows where we have both numbers.
The starting XIs
Cardiff 4-1-4-1
- Trott, Nathan.GK
- Ng, Perry.DEF
- Scanlon, Calum.DEF
- Robertson, Alex.MID
- Fish, William.DEF
- Bagan, Joel.DEF
- Tanner, Ollie.MID
- Moylan, Jack.MID
- Salech, Yousef.FWD
- Colwill, Rubin.MID
- Willock, Chris.MID
West Ham 4-4-1-1
- Hermansen, Mads.GK
- Veltman, Joël.DEF
- MoratoDEF
- Engels, Arne.MID
- Mavropanos, Konstantinos.DEF
- Kilman, Max.DEF
- Bowen, Jarrod.MID
- Magassa, Soungoutou.MID
- Castellanos, Valentín.FWD
- Mukasa, Divine.FWD
- Solomon, Manor.MID
ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Thursday 5 November, 04:57.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
When each team scores
Games: West Ham, 17; Cardiff, 16. This season's ESPN match events show the minutes in which goals were scored.
Cards and corners
- 11.2corners expected, with Cardiff 5.8, West Ham 5.4, and 10.5 for the league
- Yellow cards expected: 4.4, adjusted for the referee (league 3.7).
Form in recent matches
Cardiff City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Wolves | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Birmingham | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Watford | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Blackburn | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Charlton | 3-1 | W |
The score lines list Cardiff first, then the opponent.
West Ham United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v West Brom | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Southampton | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Swansea | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 14 Oct | at Lincoln | 6-0 | W |
| Fri 9 Oct | v QPR | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Millwall | 2-2 | D |
The score lines list West Ham first, then the opponent.
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 7 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 |
| 8 | West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 16 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
ESPN provides the standings as of Wednesday 4 November, current on that date.