Portsmouth vs Stoke City prediction
Our breakdown
With 22 points from 14 games, Portsmouth sit 10th in the Championship. Stoke sit 3rd on 26 points from 14 games, 4 points clear.
Portsmouth won 4 of their last 6, drew 2 and lost 0. They scored 10 and conceded 5. In their last 6, Stoke recorded 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 5.
For Portsmouth this season, both teams scored in 57% of games, and 50% of matches finished with over 2.5 goals; the Stoke figures are 64% and 64%. Portsmouth generate 1.24 expected goals a game and allow 1.27; Stoke generate 1.03 and allow 1.52
Our results include 4 meetings since August 2024: Portsmouth took 2 wins, Stoke took 2 and 0 were drawn. The most recent meeting, played on Saturday 25 April 2026, ended Stoke 1-3 Portsmouth.
The model puts a Portsmouth win first at 43%, ahead of a draw at 29% and Stoke 28%. It uses 1.37 expected goals for Portsmouth, while Stoke's figure is 1.06.
Our predicted score is Portsmouth 1-0 Stoke City At 13.6%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. Inside the result we lean to, 1-0 ranks as the likeliest score.
Stats for the Portsmouth v Stoke game
| Per game |  Portsmouth |  Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.0 / 4.4 | 5.4 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 0.85 / 1.23 | 1.15 / 1.25 |
| Per game | Portsmouth | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.36 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.14 | 1.21 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 36% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 4.8 | 4.8 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| xG for / against | 1.24 / 1.27 | 1.03 / 1.52 |
| Per game | Portsmouth | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.86 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.3 / 5.0 | 4.1 / 6.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 2.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.57 / 1.38 | 1.00 / 2.13 |
| Per game | Portsmouth | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.25 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 3.5 | 3.5 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.5 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Portsmouth win | 43% | 11/8 |
| Draw | 29% | 5/2 | |
| Stoke win | 28% | 5/2 | |
| Double chance | Portsmouth or draw | 72% | 2/5 |
| Stoke or draw | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Portsmouth | 60% | 4/6 |
| Stoke | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | evens |
| No | 50% | evens | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 71% | 2/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 4/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 10/3 | |
| Result and BTTS | Portsmouth and yes | 18% | 9/2 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Stoke and yes | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Result and goals | Portsmouth and over 2.5 | 23% | 10/3 |
| Stoke and over 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Portsmouth and under 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Stoke and under 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Portsmouth / Portsmouth | 26% | 3/1 |
| Draw / Draw | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Stoke / Stoke | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Portsmouth | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 56% | 4/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 45% | 5/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 50% | evens |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
Take 1 and divide it by our chance to get a fair price. Prices from UK bookmakers aren't in our feed for this match yet. football-data.co.uk usually adds them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Line-ups we predict
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
- Schmid, Nicolas.GK
- Devlin, Terry.DEF
- Meghoma, Jayden.DEF
- Mohamed, Iyad.MID
- Poole, Regan.DEF
- Dia, Madiodio.DEF
- Segecic, Adrian.MID
- Adams, Ebrima.MID
- Milovanovic, Marko.FWD
- Bailey, Odin.MID
- Shade, Tyrese.MID
They started Tue 3 Nov against Swansea.
Stoke 3-4-3
- Johansson, Viktor.GK
- Johnson, Ben.MID
- Bombino, Luca.MID
- Graham, Luke.DEF
- Taloverov, Maksym.DEF
- Wilmot, Ben.DEF
- McGlynn, Jack.MID
- Soumaré, Djibril.MID
- Bozeník, Róbert.FWD
- Manhoef, Million.FWD
- Devenny, Justin.FWD
Began the match at Blackburn on Tue 3 Nov
For the other clubs, we list the eleven who started their latest match, as reported by ESPN. Once ESPN confirms the teams, these lineups are replaced, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
The figures are Portsmouth, 15 games, and Stoke, 16 games. The goals scored by minute, taken from ESPN match events this season.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected, 10.3 in total, with Portsmouth 4.6 and Stoke 5.7; the league average is 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.8(league 3.7)
Form guide
Portsmouth
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Swansea | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Burnley | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Millwall | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Wolves | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Norwich | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 14 Oct | v Sheffield United | 3-2 | W |
In the scores, Portsmouth is listed first.
Stoke City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Blackburn | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Preston | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Bristol City | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Derby | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Bolton | 2-1 | W |
In the scores, Stoke is listed first.
Head to head
| Sat 25 Apr 2026 | Championship | Stoke 1-3 Portsmouth | 0-1 | 9 |
| Sat 25 Oct 2025 | Championship | Portsmouth 0-1 Stoke | 0-0 | 8 |
| Wed 22 Jan 2025 | Championship | Portsmouth 3-1 Stoke | 2-1 | 8 |
| Wed 2 Oct 2024 | Championship | Stoke 6-1 Portsmouth | 3-1 | 8 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 7 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.