Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers prediction
Our own analysis
With 7 points from 14 games, Derby sit 23rd in the Championship. Bolton occupy 16th place on 17 points from 14 games, 10 points ahead.
Across their last 6 games, Derby recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 15. From their last 6 games, Bolton have 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 11.
So far this season, 57% of Derby games featured both teams scoring and 57% had over 2.5 goals. For Bolton, the rates are 57% and 64%. Expected goals per game: Derby 0.98 created, 1.95 allowed; Bolton 1.32 created, 1.93 allowed.
The model expects 1.76 goals for Derby and 1.24 for Bolton. It puts a Derby win first at 49%, with the draw 25% and Bolton 26%.
Score prediction: Derby County 2-1 Bolton Wanderers. Among exact scores, 1-1 leads at 11.5%; within the result we favor, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats: Derby v Bolton
| Per game |  Derby |  Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 4.2 | 4.4 / 6.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 0.99 / 2.25 | 1.24 / 2.54 |
| Per game | Derby | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.79 | 1.36 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.07 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 5.3 | 5.4 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 0.98 / 1.95 | 1.32 / 1.93 |
| Per game | Derby | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.57 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 43% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.3 / 5.3 | 3.9 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.00 / 1.85 | 1.18 / 1.79 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Derby win | 49% | 21/20 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Bolton win | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Double chance | Derby or draw | 74% | 4/11 |
| Bolton or draw | 51% | evens | |
| Draw no bet | Derby | 65% | 8/15 |
| Bolton | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 4/6 |
| No | 41% | 6/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 8/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Derby and yes | 26% | 3/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Bolton and yes | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Result and goals | Derby and over 2.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
| Bolton and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Derby and under 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Bolton and under 2.5 | 9% | 10/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Derby / Derby | 30% | 9/4 |
| Draw / Derby | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Bolton / Bolton | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 60% | 4/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 49% | 21/20 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 48% | 21/20 |
| Over 4.5 | 32% | 9/4 |
Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't have UK bookmaker prices for this match yet. football-data.co.uk normally publishes them before kick-off, two or three days ahead.
Line-ups we predict
Derby 4-4-2
- Widell Zetterström, Jacob.GK
- Gordon, Isaac.DEF
- Johnston, Max.DEF
- Mowatt, Alex.MID
- Nyambe, Ryan.DEF
- Sanderson, Dion.DEF
- Szmodics, Sammie.MID
- Fraulo, Oscar.MID
- Morris, Carlton.FWD
- Meister, Henrik.FWD
- Clark, Bobby.MID
The start came on Tue 3 Nov v Norwich City.
Bolton 4-2-3-1
- Bonham, Jack.GK
- Stephenson, Luca.DEF
- Conway, Max.DEF
- Sheehan, Josh.MID
- Forino Joseph, Christian.DEF
- Famewo, Akin.DEF
- Iling-Junior, Samuel.MID
- Simons, Xavier.MID
- Dalby, Sam.FWD
- Ito, Atsuki.MID
- Lott, Max.MID
They began the match at Charlton on Tue 3 Nov.
Other clubs: ESPN lists the eleven who started their most recent match. ESPN's confirmed teams take over from these once they're named, roughly an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring by minute
Games shown: Derby, 15; Bolton, 15 games. ESPN match events this season show goals scored by minute.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 10.7Derby 5.3, Bolton 5.4, and 10.4 for the league
- Yellow cards expected: 3.7(league 3.7)
Latest form
Derby County
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Norwich | 0-4 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Millwall | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Sheffield United | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Stoke | 0-1 | L |
| Wed 14 Oct | at QPR | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wrexham | 1-1 | D |
In the scores, Derby comes first.
Bolton Wanderers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Charlton | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Bristol City | 2-3 | L |
| Fri 23 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 1-5 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Southampton | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Wolves | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Stoke | 1-2 | L |
In the scores, Bolton comes first.
The Championship table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston North End | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 |
ESPN supplies the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.