Cardiff City vs Burnley prediction
Our breakdown
In the Championship, Cardiff sit 18th, earning 14 points from 13 games. Burnley occupy 22nd spot on 10 points from 14 games, trailing by 4 points.
Cardiff's last 6 matches brought 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. They scored 12 and conceded 11. Burnley's last 6 games brought 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 9 scored and 9 against.
So far this season, both teams have scored in 71% of Cardiff games, while 64% had more than 2.5 goals. Burnley's figures are 86% and 64%. Cardiff's expected goals sit at 1.80 a game, with 1.73 allowed. Burnley sit at 1.25 created and 1.54 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results show 2 meetings: 0 wins for Cardiff, 2 for Burnley and 0 draws. Their most recent meeting, Tuesday 4 March 2025, finished Cardiff 1-2 Burnley.
A Burnley win comes out likeliest in the model at 38%. Cardiff 37% and the draw 25% follow, with expected goals of Cardiff 1.53 and Burnley 1.57.
We predict a Cardiff City 1-2 Burnley scoreline. At 11.5%, 1-1 is the likeliest single exact score. Within our favored result, 1-2 is the likeliest score.
Stats: Cardiff v Burnley
| Per game |  Cardiff |  Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 4.8 | 4.2 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.91 / 1.89 | 1.32 / 1.62 |
| Per game | Cardiff | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.64 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.5 / 4.9 | 4.4 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.80 / 1.73 | 1.25 / 1.54 |
| Per game | Cardiff | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.29 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.9 / 3.9 | 4.0 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 2.39 / 1.51 | 1.41 / 1.72 |
| Per game | Cardiff | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.50 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 4.0 | 4.0 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 0.5 | 2.5 |
Each market's fair prices
| Match result | Cardiff win | 37% | 7/4 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Burnley win | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Double chance | Cardiff or draw | 62% | 8/13 |
| Burnley or draw | 63% | 4/7 | |
| Draw no bet | Cardiff | 49% | 21/20 |
| Burnley | 51% | evens | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 8/13 |
| No | 37% | 13/8 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | 2/9 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 4/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Cardiff and yes | 21% | 4/1 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Burnley and yes | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Result and goals | Cardiff and over 2.5 | 25% | 3/1 |
| Burnley and over 2.5 | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Cardiff and under 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Burnley and under 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Burnley / Burnley | 23% | 10/3 |
| Cardiff / Cardiff | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Draw / Burnley | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 56% | 4/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 45% | 5/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 30% | 9/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't have UK bookmaker prices for this game yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
The line-ups we expect
Cardiff 4-1-4-1
- Trott, Nathan.GK
- Ng, Perry.DEF
- Scanlon, Calum.DEF
- Robertson, Alex.MID
- Fish, William.DEF
- Bagan, Joel.DEF
- Tanner, Ollie.MID
- Moylan, Jack.MID
- Salech, Yousef.FWD
- Colwill, Rubin.MID
- Willock, Chris.MID
These players started against West Ham on Wed 4 Nov.
Burnley 4-2-3-1
- Coudert, Grégoire.GK
- Walker, Kyle.DEF
- Pires, Lucas.DEF
- Hatate, Reo.MID
- Ekdal, Hjalmar.DEF
- Julio, Igor.DEF
- Hountondji, Andreas.MID
- Laurent, Josh.MID
- Vardy, Jamie.FWD
- Edwards, Marcus.MID
- Ramazani, Largie.MID
These players started at QPR on Tue 3 Nov.
For other clubs, ESPN gives the eleven who started their latest match. Once ESPN names its confirmed teams, they replace these about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Cardiff: 16 games. For Burnley, 16 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- 10.3corners expected, with Cardiff 5.9, Burnley 4.4 and the league on 10.4
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6(league 3.7)
Form guide
Cardiff City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | v West Ham | 3-3 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Wolves | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Birmingham | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Watford | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Blackburn | 1-2 | L |
Read the scores with Cardiff first.
Burnley
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at QPR | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Portsmouth | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Lincoln | 1-4 | L |
| Fri 16 Oct | v Wolves | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Charlton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Watford | 4-0 | W |
Read the scores with Burnley first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 4 Mar 2025 | Championship | Cardiff 1-2 Burnley | 1-2 | 11 |
| Sat 17 Aug 2024 | Championship | Burnley 5-0 Cardiff | 2-0 | 7 |
The Championship table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston North End | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 |
The standings come from ESPN and are as of Wednesday 4 November.