Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers prediction
With no market margin, the average from 6 UK bookmakers is Bristol City 28%, draw 27% and Wolves 45%.
We tipped Under 2.5 goals at 10/11, and it lost.
The model's view of the match
In the Championship, Bristol City are 15th on 18 points from 13 games Wolves, 7th in the table, have 24 from 13 and lead by 6 points
Across their last 6 games, Bristol City recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 5 scored and 5 conceded. Of their last 6 matches, Wolves took 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. They scored 8 and conceded 6.
This season, 54% of Bristol City matches had goals from both sides, and 46% finished above 2.5 goals. Wolves' figures are 62% and 62%. Expected goals per game: Bristol City 1.46 created, 1.34 allowed; Wolves 1.73 created, 0.93 allowed.
The likeliest result in the model is a Wolves win at 43% (Bristol City 28%, draw 28%). It puts Bristol City at 1.07 expected goals and Wolves at 1.39. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers put it at 45%, which is close to our number.
We predict Bristol City 0-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers. At 13.5%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. Within the result we lean to, 0-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats: Bristol City v Wolves
| Per game |  Bristol City |  Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 6.2 | 7.6 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.63 / 1.15 | 1.69 / 0.88 |
| Per game | Bristol City | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.15 | 1.77 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.31 | 1.23 |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 31% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 5.8 | 6.8 / 3.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.46 / 1.34 | 1.73 / 0.93 |
| Per game | Bristol City | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 5.8 | 6.0 / 4.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| xG for / against | 1.13 / 1.23 | 1.55 / 1.10 |
Fair prices alongside the best UK odds
| Match result | Bristol City win | 28% | 5/2 | 5/2 BetVictor | -1.3% |
| Draw | 28% | 5/2 | 5/2 Betway | +2.1% | |
| Wolves win | 43% | 5/4 | 6/5 Betway | -4.5% | |
| Double chance | Bristol City or draw | 57% | 4/5 | ||
| Wolves or draw | 72% | 2/5 | |||
| Draw no bet | Bristol City | 39% | 6/4 | ||
| Wolves | 61% | 4/6 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | evens | ||
| No | 50% | evens | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 71% | 2/5 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 5/4 | 10/11 bet365 | -15.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 4/5 | 10/11 bet365 | +8.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 10/3 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Bristol City and yes | 13% | 7/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Wolves and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Bristol City and over 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | ||
| Wolves and over 2.5 | 24% | 3/1 | |||
| Bristol City and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Wolves and under 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Wolves / Wolves | 26% | 11/4 | ||
| Draw / Draw | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Bristol City / Bristol City | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Wolves | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 49% | 21/20 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 50% | evens | ||
| Over 4.5 | 34% | 2/1 |
Our fair price comes from 1 divided by our chance. Odds come from football-data.co.uk, which has match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. Our edge marks where both numbers are available.
Line-ups for the start of the match
Bristol City 4-2-3-1
- Collins, Bradley.GK
- Tanner, George.DEF
- Pring, Cameron.DEF
- Williams, Joe.MID
- McNally, Luke.DEF
- Eissat, Lisav.DEF
- Cardines, Rio.MID
- Knight, Jason.MID
- Tolaj, Lorent.FWD
- Name: Sam BellMID
- Name: Scott TwineMID
Wolves 4-2-3-1
- Sá, José.GK
- Trippier, Kieran.DEF
- Bueno, Hugo.DEF
- Name: Marshall MunetsiMID
- Name: Yerson MosqueraDEF
- Name: Ladislav KrejcíDEF
- Name: Fernando LópezMID
- Name: AndréMID
- Name: Adam ArmstrongFWD
- Name: Jean-Ricner BellegardeMID
- Name: Rafiki SaidMID
The starting elevens were taken from ESPN on Thursday 5 November, 04:57.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
For Bristol City there are 15 games; Wolves, 17 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Corners and card counts
- Corners expected: 10.7League 10.5, Bristol City 4.5, Wolves 6.2
- Yellow cards expected: 3.8 (league 3.7, with the referee taken into account).
Form in recent matches
Bristol City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Bolton | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Stoke | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Sheffield United | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Blackburn | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Charlton | 1-1 | D |
| Fri 18 Sep | v Watford | 1-0 | W |
In the scorelines, Bristol City comes first.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Cardiff | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Watford | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Portsmouth | 1-1 | D |
| Fri 16 Oct | at Burnley | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Bolton | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 0-1 | L |
In the scorelines, Wolves comes first.
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 7 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
The table comes from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.