Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction
Our breakdown
Leeds have 11 points from 9 games, which puts them 12th in the Premier League. On 12 points from 9 games, Spurs are 9th and 1 point clear.
In their last 6 matches Leeds took 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded. In their last 6, Spurs won 3 games, drew 1 and lost 2, scoring 11 and conceding 8.
In 56% of Leeds games this season both teams scored, while 22% of them went over 2.5 goals; Spurs' figures are 33% and 33%. Leeds produce 1.24 expected goals a game and allow 1.30; for Spurs the numbers are 1.29 created and 1.12 allowed.
Our results show 2 meetings since August 2024: Leeds won 0 of them, Spurs won 1, and 1 was level. Tottenham 1-1 Leeds was the score on Monday 11 May 2026, the most recent meeting.
Sávio, a regular starter this season, is expected to be missing for Spurs.
Expected goals stand at 1.68 for Leeds and 1.20 for Spurs. Based on these figures, the model rates a Leeds win at 48%, the draw at 25% and Spurs 27%.
Score prediction: Leeds United 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur. One exact score stands out as likeliest: 1-1 at 12.0%. Within the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Leeds against Spurs
| Per game |  Leeds |  Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.8 / 3.2 | 8.8 / 2.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 0.96 / 1.29 | 1.65 / 0.68 |
| Per game | Leeds | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 44% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.1 / 4.1 | 7.9 / 3.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.24 / 1.30 | 1.29 / 1.12 |
| Per game | Leeds | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 4.2 | 5.8 / 4.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.52 / 1.10 | 1.00 / 1.52 |
| Per game | Leeds | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.0 / 7.5 | 7.5 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 3.0 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Leeds win | 48% | 11/10 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Spurs win | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Double chance | Leeds or draw | 73% | 4/11 |
| Spurs or draw | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Leeds | 64% | 4/7 |
| Spurs | 36% | 7/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 8/11 |
| No | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 5/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 6/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 2/1 | |
| Result and BTTS | Leeds and yes | 24% | 10/3 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Spurs and yes | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Result and goals | Leeds and over 2.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
| Spurs and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Leeds and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Spurs and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Leeds / Leeds | 30% | 5/2 |
| Draw / Leeds | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Spurs / Spurs | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 58% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 56% | 4/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 39% | 6/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't yet include prices from UK bookmakers for this match. football-data.co.uk normally posts them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Scorer and card chances
| Leeds | Calvert-Lewin FWD | 3 | 3.9 | 44% | 5/4 | 28% |
| Leeds | Stach MID | 1 | 1.5 | 23% | 10/3 | 0% |
| Leeds | Bogle DEF | 2 | 1.6 | 21% | 7/2 | 28% |
| Leeds | Tanaka MID | 0 | 0.9 | 16% | 5/1 | 25% |
| Spurs | Gallagher MID | 1 | 1.4 | 32% | 2/1 | 60% |
| Spurs | Solanke FWD | 1 | 1.9 | 30% | 5/2 | 18% |
| Spurs | Kudus MID | 0 | 1.2 | 20% | 4/1 | 0% |
| Spurs | Van Hecke DEF | 2 | 1.6 | 15% | 11/2 | 20% |
Goals, xG, minutes and bookings for players come out of the Fantasy Premier League feed. The chances then mix those figures with our team goal expectation. Listing covers only players with a chance of at least 75% to play.
Who we expect to start
Leeds 4-2-3-1
- TraffordGK · 9 starts
- MuharemovićDEF · 9 starts
- JustinDEF · 9 starts
- BogleDEF · 9 starts
- GudmundssonDEF · 7 starts
- AmpaduMID · 9 starts
- StachMID · 7 starts
- TanakaMID · 7 starts
- OkaforMID · 6 starts, 75% to play
- WilsonMID · 3 starts
- Calvert-LewinFWD · 9 starts
Spurs 3-5-2
- KinskyGK · 9 starts
- Van HeckeDEF · 9 starts
- Name: Van de Ven.DEF · 7 starts
- RobertsonDEF · 7 starts
- TonaliMID · 9 starts
- GrayMID · 7 starts
- FernandesMID · 5 starts
- TelMID · 5 starts
- KudusMID · 4 starts
- MarmoushFWD · 7 starts
- SolankeFWD · 5 starts
Sávio is out or doubtful because of a Muscular injury.
For these Premier League sides, Fantasy Premier League availability flags appear beside each player's starts this season. These line-ups are replaced by ESPN's confirmed teams about an hour before kick-off, after the teams are named.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Leeds have 11 games; Spurs, 11 games. Goal times this season come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.5 in total (league 9.9; Leeds 4.0, Spurs 6.5).
- Expected yellow cards: 4.2 (league 3.8).
Form guide
Leeds United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Bournemouth | 0-2 | L |
| Sun 25 Oct | at Sunderland | 0-0 | D |
| Sun 18 Oct | v Man United | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Arsenal | 1-2 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | v Crystal Palace | 0-0 | D |
| Mon 14 Sep | v Newcastle | 4-1 | W |
Leeds scores come first.
Tottenham Hotspur
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Crystal Palace | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Chelsea | 2-0 | W |
| Mon 19 Oct | v Coventry | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Man United | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Aston Villa | 2-3 | L |
| Tue 15 Sep | at Liverpool | 1-3 | L |
Spurs scores come first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 11 May 2026 | Premier League | Tottenham 1-1 Leeds | 0-0 | 16 |
| Sat 4 Oct 2025 | Premier League | Leeds 1-2 Tottenham | 1-1 | 5 |
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +0 | 13 |
| 8 |  AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Leeds United | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
ESPN standings as of Wednesday 4 November.