Fulham vs Newcastle United prediction
The analysis we give
Fulham hold 15th place in the Premier League, taking 9 points from 9 games. Newcastle sit 13th, with 11 points from 9 games, 2 points ahead.
Fulham's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 5 scored and 5 conceded. Newcastle lost 4, won 2 and drew 0 in their last 6, scoring 6 and conceding 10.
This season, 56% of Fulham matches saw both teams score, and 33% had over 2.5 goals. For Newcastle, the two figures are 56% and 56%. Expected goals show Fulham creating 1.52 per game and allowing 1.36. Newcastle's numbers are 1.17 created and 1.74 allowed.
Our results list 4 meetings since August 2024, with Fulham taking 3 wins, Newcastle 1 and 0 draws. On Sunday 24 May 2026, the latest game ended Fulham 2-0 Newcastle.
Expected goals stand at 1.57 for Fulham and 1.27 for Newcastle. From those figures, the model finds a Fulham win most likely at 44%, with the draw on 26% and Newcastle 30%.
Our prediction: Fulham 2-1 Newcastle United. At 12.3%, 1-1 stands as the likeliest single exact score. Of the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats: Fulham v Newcastle
| Per game |  Fulham |  Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.0 / 3.8 | 4.5 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 3.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.50 / 0.91 | 1.31 / 1.69 |
| Per game | Fulham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.22 | 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 4.6 | 4.4 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.52 / 1.36 | 1.17 / 1.74 |
| Per game | Fulham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.5 / 5.0 | 5.5 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.87 / 1.36 | 1.10 / 1.49 |
| Per game | Fulham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 3.5 | 3.5 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.5 | 1.5 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Fulham win | 44% | 5/4 |
| Draw | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Newcastle win | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Double chance | Fulham or draw | 70% | 4/9 |
| Newcastle or draw | 56% | 4/5 | |
| Draw no bet | Fulham | 59% | 4/6 |
| Newcastle | 41% | 6/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 8/11 |
| No | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 5/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Fulham and yes | 22% | 7/2 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Newcastle and yes | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Result and goals | Fulham and over 2.5 | 28% | 5/2 |
| Newcastle and over 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Fulham and under 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Newcastle and under 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Fulham / Fulham | 27% | 11/4 |
| Newcastle / Newcastle | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Fulham | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53% | 10/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 54% | 5/6 |
| Over 4.5 | 37% | 13/8 |
Fair price means 1 divided by the chance we give it. Our feed has no UK bookmaker prices for this match yet. football-data.co.uk usually lists them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Chances for goalscorers and cards
| Fulham | Gonzalo FWD | 1 | 4.0 | 36% | 7/4 | 0% |
| Fulham | King MID | 2 | 1.9 | 19% | 9/2 | 28% |
| Fulham | Bobb MID | 1 | 1.7 | 18% | 9/2 | 0% |
| Fulham | Iwobi MID | 1 | 1.4 | 14% | 6/1 | 0% |
| Newcastle | Wissa FWD | 1 | 3.4 | 40% | 6/4 | 34% |
| Newcastle | Elanga MID | 2 | 0.8 | 19% | 4/1 | 22% |
| Newcastle | Willock MID | 2 | 1.3 | 18% | 9/2 | 0% |
| Newcastle | Barnes MID | 2 | 1.5 | 17% | 5/1 | 0% |
Goals, xG, minutes and bookings for players come from the Fantasy Premier League feed. The chances data combines these with our team goal expectation. We list only players with at least a 75% chance of playing.
Line-ups we predict
Fulham 4-2-3-1
- LenoGK · 9 starts
- BasseyDEF · 9 starts
- RobinsonDEF · 8 starts
- CastagneDEF · 8 starts
- AffengruberDEF · 6 starts
- KingMID · 9 starts
- IwobiMID · 9 starts
- BobbMID · 9 starts
- BergeMID · 7 starts
- CharlesMID · 7 starts
- GonzaloFWD · 9 starts
Newcastle 4-4-2
- HorníčekGK · 9 starts
- HallDEF · 9 starts
- ThiawDEF · 7 starts
- BotmanDEF · 7 starts
- DedićDEF · 6 starts
- BarnesMID · 9 starts
- L.MileyMID · 7 starts, 75% to play
- WillockMID · 7 starts
- N.GonzalezMID · 7 starts
- WissaFWD · 7 starts
- Fernandez-PardoFWD · 4 starts, 75% to play
For Premier League sides, the Fantasy Premier League availability flags sit alongside each player's starts this season. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, they replace these about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
For Fulham, 12 games; for Newcastle, 12 games. Goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events this season.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 10.1Team figures are Fulham 5.5 and Newcastle 4.6, while the league average is 9.9
- Yellow cards expected: 4.0(league 3.8)
Latest form
Fulham
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Aston Villa | 1-1 | D |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Crystal Palace | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Coventry | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Hull | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Ipswich | 1-2 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | v Man United | 1-1 | D |
Fulham is listed first in the scores.
Newcastle United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | v Everton | 0-1 | L |
| Thu 29 Oct | at Everton | 1-3 | L |
| Sun 25 Oct | at Crystal Palace | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Aston Villa | 0-1 | L |
| Mon 12 Oct | at Coventry | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Hull | 2-1 | W |
Newcastle is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Sun 24 May 2026 | Premier League | Fulham 2-0 Newcastle | 1-0 | 12 |
| Sat 25 Oct 2025 | Premier League | Newcastle 2-1 Fulham | 1-0 | 7 |
| Sat 1 Feb 2025 | Premier League | Newcastle 1-2 Fulham | 1-0 | 11 |
| Sat 21 Sep 2024 | Premier League | Fulham 3-1 Newcastle | 2-0 | 6 |
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds United | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry City | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
ESPN provides the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.