Everton vs Coventry City prediction
Our breakdown
With 13 points from 9 games, Everton are 7th in the Premier League. Coventry sit 16th on 9 from 9, and they're 4 points behind.
Across their last 6 games, Everton took 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. They scored 7 and conceded 7. Across the last 6, Coventry recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 10 scored and 9 against.
Both teams scored in 33% of Everton's matches this season, and 22% of those games finished with over 2.5 goals. Coventry's numbers read 33% and 56%. In expected goals terms, Everton produce 1.36 per game and give up 1.46. Coventry's numbers are 0.92 created and 1.52 allowed.
The model picks an Everton win as the likeliest outcome, at 55%, based on 1.81 expected goals for Everton and 1.03 for Coventry. A draw comes at 24%, with Coventry 21%.
Our predicted score is Everton 1-0 Coventry City. Our favored result contains 1-0 as its likeliest score, and the single likeliest exact score overall is 1-1 at 11.6%.
Everton v Coventry numbers
| Per game |  Everton |  Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 7.5 | 3.2 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.22 / 1.56 | 0.82 / 1.24 |
| Per game | Everton | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.78 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 11% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.9 / 5.8 | 3.8 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.36 / 1.46 | 0.92 / 1.52 |
| Per game | Everton | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 3.5 | 3.2 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.20 / 1.39 | 0.77 / 1.49 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Everton win | 55% | 5/6 |
| Draw | 24% | 3/1 | |
| Coventry win | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Double chance | Everton or draw | 79% | 1/4 |
| Coventry or draw | 45% | 6/5 | |
| Draw no bet | Everton | 73% | 4/11 |
| Coventry | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 5/6 |
| No | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 5/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Everton and yes | 26% | 3/1 |
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Coventry and yes | 11% | 17/2 | |
| Result and goals | Everton and over 2.5 | 35% | 15/8 |
| Coventry and over 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Everton and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Coventry and under 2.5 | 8% | 11/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Everton / Everton | 35% | 15/8 |
| Draw / Everton | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Coventry / Coventry | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 43% | 11/8 |
| Over 10.5 | 33% | 2/1 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 40% | 6/4 |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 3/1 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. UK prices from bookmakers for this match aren't in our feed yet. They usually appear on football-data.co.uk two or three days ahead of kick-off.
The line-ups we predict
Everton 4-2-3-1
- Name: Pickford.GK · 9 starts
- Name: Tarkowski.DEF · 9 starts
- Name: Branthwaite.DEF · 8 starts
- Name: Mykolenko.DEF · 8 starts
- Name: Maitland-Niles.DEF · 4 starts
- Name: Dewsbury-Hall.MID · 9 starts
- Name: Armstrong.MID · 9 starts
- Name: Garner.MID · 8 starts
- Name: George.MID · 6 starts
- Name: Röhl.MID · 6 starts
- Name: Barry.FWD · 9 starts
Coventry 4-2-3-1
- Name: Carl Rushworth.GK
- Name: Milan van Ewijk.DEF
- Name: Jay Da Silva.DEF
- Name: Victor Torp.MID
- Name: Stephen Mfuni.DEF
- Name: Ethan Pinnock.DEF
- Name: Tatsuhiro Sakamoto.MID
- Name: Caleb Yirenkyi.MID
- Awoniyi, Taiwo.FWD
- Rudoni, Jack.MID
- Gboho, Yann.MID
Started against Sunderland on Sat 31 Oct.
Each player's starts this season and the Fantasy Premier League availability flags cover Premier League sides. For other clubs, ESPN provides the eleven who started their latest match. ESPN's confirmed teams take the place of these once named, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
The match data covers Everton, 12 games, and Coventry, 11 games. This season's ESPN match events show goals scored by minute.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 9.2, with league 9.9 (Everton 4.0, Coventry 5.1).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.2 (league 3.8).
Form in recent matches
Everton
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Newcastle | 1-0 | W |
| Thu 29 Oct | v Newcastle | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Arsenal | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Chelsea | 0-2 | L |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Hull | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Ipswich | 1-0 | W |
Everton's score comes first.
Coventry City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Sunderland | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Fulham | 0-1 | L |
| Mon 19 Oct | at Tottenham | 1-3 | L |
| Mon 12 Oct | v Newcastle | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Nott'm Forest | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 16 Sep | v Aston Villa | 1-3 | L |
Coventry's score comes first.
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 | Everton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +0 | 13 |
| 8 |  AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 12 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
Positions come from ESPN and are dated Wednesday 4 November.