Crystal Palace vs Liverpool prediction
Analysis from our team
Palace rank 18th in the Premier League, earning 7 points in 9 games Liverpool rank 5th with 15 points from 9 games, holding an 8-point advantage
Palace's last 6 matches produced 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 4 scored and 10 conceded Across their last 6 matches, Liverpool took 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6.
So far this season, both teams scored in 44% of Palace matches, while 56% of them went past 2.5 goals; Liverpool's shares are 33% and 44%. Palace generate 1.24 expected goals each game and concede 2.14; Liverpool generate 1.46 and concede 1.17.
Since August 2024, our results show 4 meetings, with Palace winning 1, Liverpool winning 2 and 1 draw The most recent meeting ended with Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace on Saturday 25 April 2026
Our model puts a Liverpool victory at 46% as the most likely outcome (Palace 29%, the draw 25%), on expected goals showing 1.27 for Palace and 1.67 for Liverpool.
Score prediction: Palace 1-2 Liverpool At 11.9%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score, while 1-2 leads within our preferred result
Stats for Palace v Liverpool
| Per game |  Palace |  Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 9.8 | 6.2 / 3.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.23 / 2.44 | 1.21 / 1.11 |
| Per game | Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 44% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.2 / 7.0 | 5.0 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.24 / 2.14 | 1.46 / 1.17 |
| Per game | Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.50 | 0.75 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 5.2 | 5.2 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 2.04 | 1.74 / 1.00 |
| Per game | Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.2 / 7.5 | 7.5 / 3.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Palace win | 29% | 5/2 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Liverpool win | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Double chance | Palace or draw | 54% | 5/6 |
| Liverpool or draw | 71% | 2/5 | |
| Draw no bet | Palace | 38% | 13/8 |
| Liverpool | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 4/6 |
| No | 41% | 6/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 4/5 | |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 2/1 | |
| Result and BTTS | Palace and yes | 16% | 11/2 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Liverpool and yes | 24% | 10/3 | |
| Result and goals | Palace and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 |
| Liverpool and over 2.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Palace and under 2.5 | 10% | 17/2 | |
| Liverpool and under 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Liverpool / Liverpool | 28% | 5/2 |
| Palace / Palace | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Liverpool | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 55% | 4/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 48% | 21/20 |
| Over 4.5 | 32% | 9/4 |
Divide 1 by our chance to get the fair price Our feed doesn't yet include UK bookmaker prices for this match, which football-data.co.uk usually posts two or three days before kick-off
Scorer and card probabilities
| Palace | Strand Larsen FWD | 1 | 1.4 | 25% | 3/1 | 0% |
| Palace | Khalaili DEF | 1 | 1.2 | 16% | 11/2 | 23% |
| Palace | Yeremy MID | 1 | 1.0 | 12% | 15/2 | 31% |
| Palace | Kamada MID | 1 | 0.9 | 10% | 9/1 | 20% |
| Liverpool | Isak FWD | 6 | 4.3 | 46% | 6/5 | 12% |
| Liverpool | Szoboszlai MID | 1 | 1.5 | 25% | 3/1 | 15% |
| Liverpool | Gakpo MID | 1 | 1.2 | 21% | 4/1 | 0% |
| Liverpool | Wirtz MID | 0 | 1.5 | 17% | 5/1 | 11% |
Chances come from combining our team goal expectation with player goals, xG, minutes and bookings in the Fantasy Premier League feed. We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.
Expected starting line-ups
Palace 4-4-2
- BenitezGK · 5 starts
- RichardsDEF · 9 starts
- MitchellDEF · 9 starts
- CanvotDEF · 8 starts
- KhalailiDEF · 7 starts
- WhartonMID · 9 starts
- KamadaMID · 9 starts
- YeremyMID · 8 starts
- TimberMID · 5 starts, 75% to play
- Strand LarsenFWD · 5 starts, 75% to play
- NketiahFWD · 3 starts
Tomiyasu is out or doubtful with a Calf injury
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
- A.BeckerGK · 9 starts
- VirgilDEF · 9 starts
- JacquetDEF · 9 starts
- KerkezDEF · 8 starts
- AraujoDEF · 7 starts
- WirtzMID · 9 starts
- Mac AllisterMID · 7 starts
- GakpoMID · 6 starts
- BarcolaMID · 6 starts
- SzoboszlaiMID · 6 starts
- IsakFWD · 8 starts
Frimpong is out or doubtful (Hamstring injury).
Fantasy Premier League availability flags accompany each player's season starts for Premier League teams Once the teams are named, ESPN's confirmed line-ups replace these about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Liverpool, 11 games. Palace, 11 games. This season's ESPN match events give the goals scored by minute.
Corners and card counts
- Corners expected: 10.2, including Palace 3.8 and Liverpool 6.4 against a league average of 9.9
- Yellow cards expected: 3.7(league 3.8)
Latest form
Crystal Palace
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Tottenham | 0-2 | L |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Fulham | 1-0 | W |
| Sun 25 Oct | v Newcastle | 0-2 | L |
| Sun 18 Oct | at Brighton | 0-5 | L |
| Sun 11 Oct | v Nott'm Forest | 3-1 | W |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Leeds | 0-0 | D |
Palace scores come first.
Liverpool
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov | v Arsenal | 0-1 | L |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Chelsea | 1-1 | D |
| Sun 25 Oct | v Brighton | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Brentford | 2-1 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | v Man City | 0-3 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Bournemouth | 1-0 | W |
Liverpool scores come first.
Head to head
| Sat 25 Apr 2026 | Premier League | Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace | 2-0 | 13 |
| Sat 27 Sep 2025 | Premier League | Crystal Palace 2-1 Liverpool | 1-0 | 8 |
| Sun 25 May 2025 | Premier League | Liverpool 1-1 Crystal Palace | 0-1 | 11 |
| Sat 5 Oct 2024 | Premier League | Crystal Palace 0-1 Liverpool | 0-1 | 11 |
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +0 | 13 |
| 16 |  Coventry City | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.