Arsenal vs Hull City prediction
What we make of it
Arsenal sit 1st in the Premier League, on 24 points from 9 games. Hull sit 11th with 11 points from 9, 13 points behind.
Arsenal's last 6 brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 7 scored and 5 conceded. Across their last 6 games Hull recorded 0 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 10 conceded.
This season, both teams scored in 22% of Arsenal games and 44% went over 2.5 goals; Hull's figures are 56% and 44%. Expected goals put Arsenal at 1.65 a game created and 0.80 allowed, while Hull sit on 1.01 and 1.47.
Saka, a regular starter this season, is expected to be unavailable for Arsenal.
An Arsenal win is what the model expects most often, at 79%, while the draw is 15% and Hull 6%. The expected goals behind that are 2.44 for Arsenal and 0.53 for Hull.
Our predicted score is Arsenal 2-0 Hull City.
Stats: Arsenal v Hull
| Per game |  Arsenal |  Hull |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 5.5 | 5.4 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.60 / 0.80 | 1.09 / 1.46 |
| Per game | Arsenal | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.56 | 1.22 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.56 | 1.11 |
| Both teams scored | 22% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.2 | 4.1 / 6.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.65 / 0.80 | 1.01 / 1.47 |
| Per game | Arsenal | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.8 / 3.0 | 3.8 / 7.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| xG for / against | 2.05 / 0.46 | 0.97 / 1.25 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Arsenal win | 79% | 1/4 |
| Draw | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Hull win | 6% | 16/1 | |
| Double chance | Arsenal or draw | 94% | 1/16 |
| Hull or draw | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Draw no bet | Arsenal | 93% | 1/14 |
| Hull | 7% | 14/1 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 13/8 |
| No | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Arsenal and yes | 26% | 3/1 |
| Draw and yes | 10% | 10/1 | |
| Hull and yes | 3% | 40/1 | |
| Result and goals | Arsenal and over 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 |
| Hull and over 2.5 | 3% | 33/1 | |
| Arsenal and under 2.5 | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Hull and under 2.5 | 3% | 33/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Arsenal / Arsenal | 55% | 4/5 |
| Draw / Arsenal | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 9% | 10/1 | |
| Hull / Hull | 3% | 33/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 52% | 10/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 41% | 11/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 57% | 8/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 40% | 6/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed has no UK bookmaker prices for this match yet; football-data.co.uk usually puts them up two or three days before kick-off.
Line-ups we predict
Arsenal 4-2-3-1
- RayaGK · 9 starts
- GabrielDEF · 9 starts
- CalafioriDEF · 8 starts
- KonsaDEF · 7 starts
- WhiteDEF · 7 starts
- RiceMID · 9 starts
- ØdegaardMID · 9 starts
- TzolisMID · 6 starts
- Lewis-SkellyMID · 6 starts
- MaduekeMID · 3 starts
- HavertzFWD · 8 starts
Saka (Thigh injury) is out or doubtful.
Hull 5-4-1
- Tzolakis, Konstantinos.GK
- Coyle, Lewie.DEF
- Giles, Ryan.DEF
- Mendy, Nobel.DEF
- Egan, John.DEF
- Ajayi, Semi.DEF
- Belloumi, Mohamed.MID
- Iroegbunam, Tim.MID
- McBurnie, Oliver.FWD
- Slater, Regan.MID
- Stroud, Elliot.MID
They started Sat 31 Oct v Ipswich.
For Premier League sides, each player is listed with season starts and Fantasy Premier League availability flags. For other clubs, the eleven players who started their latest match come from ESPN. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, they replace these line-ups about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Arsenal, 11 games and Hull, 11 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- The corner count expected is 9.9 (Arsenal 5.8 and Hull 4.2, with the league on 9.9).
- We expect 4.2 yellow cards (the league figure is 3.8).
Form in recent matches
Arsenal
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov | at Liverpool | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 27 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Everton | 2-0 | W |
| Sun 18 Oct | at Nott'm Forest | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Leeds | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Brighton | 0-3 | L |
Arsenal's score comes first.
Hull City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Ipswich | 2-2 | D |
| Sun 25 Oct | v Brentford | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Fulham | 0-1 | L |
| Sun 11 Oct | v Everton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Newcastle | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 12 Sep | at Chelsea | 2-2 | D |
Hull's score comes first.
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 |
| 9 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Hull City | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds United | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
According to ESPN, the standings apply as of Wednesday 4 November.