Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford prediction
Our breakdown
Brighton sit 3rd in the Premier League, and their 19 points come from 9 games played. Brentford sit 6th with 14 points from 9 games, 5 points behind.
Brighton's last 6 games brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 13 scored and 4 conceded. Brentford's last 6 games gave 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 11 scored and 8 conceded.
This season both teams scored in 22% of Brighton matches, and 56% of those games had over 2.5 goals. Brentford's figures are 67% and 56%. Brighton average 1.91 in expected goals per game and allow 1.45, while Brentford create 1.55 and concede 1.41.
Our results show 4 meetings since August 2024: 2 Brighton wins, 1 Brentford win and 1 draw. The most recent meeting, played on Saturday 21 February 2026, ended Brentford 0-2 Brighton.
A Brighton win is what our model finds likeliest, at 50%, with the draw on 24% and Brentford 26% behind it. That comes from expected goals, 1.88 for Brighton and 1.32 for Brentford.
The predicted score is Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 Brentford. The likeliest single scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%. Within the result we lean to, 2-1 comes up most often.
Stats for Brighton v Brentford
| Per game |  Brighton |  Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 6.0 | 3.5 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.43 / 1.08 | 1.03 / 1.59 |
| Per game | Brighton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.67 | 1.78 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 22% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.9 / 5.2 | 4.0 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.91 / 1.45 | 1.55 / 1.41 |
| Per game | Brighton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 4.8 | 3.8 / 3.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 2.32 / 1.29 | 1.22 / 1.76 |
| Per game | Brighton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 4.2 | 4.2 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 2.0 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Brighton win | 50% | evens |
| Draw | 24% | 10/3 | |
| Brentford win | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Double chance | Brighton or draw | 74% | 4/11 |
| Brentford or draw | 50% | evens | |
| Draw no bet | Brighton | 65% | 8/15 |
| Brentford | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 4/7 |
| No | 37% | 7/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 84% | 1/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Brighton and yes | 28% | 5/2 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Brentford and yes | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Result and goals | Brighton and over 2.5 | 36% | 7/4 |
| Brentford and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Brighton and under 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Brentford and under 2.5 | 8% | 11/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Brighton / Brighton | 31% | 9/4 |
| Draw / Brighton | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Brentford / Brentford | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51% | evens |
| Over 10.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 50% | evens |
| Over 4.5 | 34% | 2/1 |
Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. For this match, our feed has no UK bookmaker prices yet; football-data.co.uk normally publishes them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Chances for goalscorers and cards
| Brighton | Yalcouyé MID | 2 | 1.5 | 33% | 2/1 | 0% |
| Brighton | Kostoulas FWD | 3 | 2.4 | 25% | 3/1 | 12% |
| Brighton | Ayari MID | 3 | 2.0 | 21% | 7/2 | 12% |
| Brighton | Groß MID | 3 | 2.2 | 21% | 4/1 | 36% |
| Brentford | Thiago FWD | 2 | 4.1 | 31% | 9/4 | 36% |
| Brentford | Anthony MID | 1 | 1.7 | 23% | 10/3 | 17% |
| Brentford | Schade MID | 3 | 2.1 | 20% | 4/1 | 12% |
| Brentford | O.Dango MID | 1 | 1.1 | 16% | 5/1 | 0% |
Goals, xG, minutes and bookings for each player come from the Fantasy Premier League feed. Our chances pair those numbers with our team goal expectation. We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.
The line-ups we predict
Brighton 4-2-3-1
- VerbruggenGK · 9 starts
- VuskovicDEF · 9 starts
- De CuyperDEF · 9 starts
- BoscagliDEF · 9 starts
- DunkDEF · 7 starts
- GroßMID · 9 starts
- GomezMID · 9 starts
- AyariMID · 8 starts
- AndrésMID · 5 starts
- YalcouyéMID · 3 starts
- KostoulasFWD · 8 starts
Brentford 4-2-3-1
- KelleherGK · 9 starts
- AjerDEF · 9 starts
- KayodeDEF · 8 starts
- SchusterDEF · 3 starts
- The name is Van den Berg.DEF · 3 starts
- Lewis-PotterMID · 9 starts
- JaneltMID · 8 starts
- SchadeMID · 8 starts
- M.SangaréMID · 6 starts
- AnthonyMID · 5 starts
- ThiagoFWD · 9 starts
Premier League sides: how many starts each player has made this season, with Fantasy Premier League availability flags. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, they replace these line-ups about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Brighton, 11 games Brentford, 12 matches. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 9.8, with Brighton 5.2 and Brentford 4.7 against a league 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.8(league 3.8)
Latest form
Brighton & Hove Albion
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Man City | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Man City | 2-2 | D |
| Sun 25 Oct | at Liverpool | 0-2 | L |
| Sun 18 Oct | v Crystal Palace | 5-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Sunderland | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Arsenal | 3-0 | W |
With Brighton, read the scores with Brighton listed first.
Brentford
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Nott'm Forest | 2-0 | W |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Sunderland | 2-3 | L |
| Sun 25 Oct | at Hull | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Liverpool | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Aston Villa | 2-2 | D |
| Fri 18 Sep | v Chelsea | 3-0 | W |
With Brentford, read the scores with Brentford listed first.
Head to head
| Sat 21 Feb 2026 | Premier League | Brentford 0-2 Brighton | 0-2 | 10 |
| Sat 22 Nov 2025 | Premier League | Brighton 2-1 Brentford | 0-1 | 11 |
| Sat 19 Apr 2025 | Premier League | Brentford 4-2 Brighton | 1-1 | 12 |
| Fri 27 Dec 2024 | Premier League | Brighton 0-0 Brentford | 0-0 | 8 |
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +0 | 13 |
| 8 |  AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
The standings come from ESPN and are as of Wednesday 4 November.