football-tips.uk

Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction

Sunderland crestSunderland
14:00Sunday 8 November
ChelseaChelsea crest
1-2predicted score (9%)
57%both teams score
53%over 2.5 goals
1.28-1.54expected goals

Our own analysis

In the Premier League, Sunderland are 20th on 5 points from 9 games. Chelsea hold 4th place on 16 points from 9 games, 11 points ahead.

Sunderland's last 6 matches brought 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 7 goals scored and 14 conceded. Chelsea's last 6 show 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded.

Sunderland's games this season saw both teams score in 44% of cases, and 33% went past 2.5 goals. Chelsea's figures are 56% and 67%. Sunderland create 1.47 expected goals a game and allow 1.75. Chelsea's numbers are 1.42 created and 1.40 allowed.

Our results show 2 meetings since August 2024, with 2 Sunderland wins, 0 Chelsea wins and 0 draws. Sunday 24 May 2026 saw Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea in the most recent meeting.

Ballard, a regular starter this season, is expected to be out for Sunderland.

Four regular starters this season are expected to be missing for Chelsea: Martinez, James, Hato and João Pedro.

Sunderland's expected goals of 1.28 and Chelsea's of 1.54 drive the model. From those figures, a Chelsea win is the likeliest outcome at 43%, with Sunderland 31% and the draw 26%.

Our prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Chelsea. The likeliest exact score overall is 1-1 at 12.5%. Within the result we lean to, 1-2 is the most likely score.

Stats for Sunderland v Chelsea

Per gameSunderland crestSunderlandChelsea crestChelsea
Games55
Goals scored a game0.802.00
Goals conceded a game1.800.80
Both teams scored40%40%
Over 2.5 goals40%20%
Clean sheets20%40%
Corners won / conceded4.5 / 4.85.0 / 6.2
Yellow cards a game1.82.5
xG for / against0.86 / 1.771.51 / 0.95

Market fair prices

Match resultSunderland win31%9/4
Draw26%11/4
Chelsea win43%11/8
Double chanceSunderland or draw57%8/11
Chelsea or draw69%4/9
Draw no betSunderland42%11/8
Chelsea58%8/11
Both teams to scoreYes57%8/11
No43%11/8
GoalsOver 1.578%2/7
Over 2.553%10/11
Under 2.547%11/10
Over 3.531%9/4
Result and BTTSSunderland and yes16%5/1
Draw and yes20%4/1
Chelsea and yes22%7/2
Result and goalsSunderland and over 2.519%4/1
Chelsea and over 2.527%11/4
Sunderland and under 2.512%15/2
Chelsea and under 2.516%11/2
Half time / full timeChelsea / Chelsea26%11/4
Sunderland / Sunderland18%9/2
Draw / Chelsea15%11/2
Draw / Draw15%6/1
CornersOver 9.557%4/5
Over 10.546%6/5
CardsOver 3.562%8/13
Over 4.545%5/4

A fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance. football-data.co.uk usually posts UK bookmaker prices for this match two or three days before kick-off, but our feed doesn't have them yet.

Scorer and card chances

Sunderland crestSunderlandBrobbey FWD33.535%15/813%
Sunderland crestSunderlandE.Le Fée MID23.025%3/10%
Sunderland crestSunderlandMukiele DEF00.810%9/113%
Sunderland crestSunderlandO'Nien DEF00.39%10/128%
Chelsea crestChelseaRogers MID52.827%11/428%
Chelsea crestChelseaPalmer MID32.525%3/120%
Chelsea crestChelseaNeto MID31.821%4/122%
Chelsea crestChelseaLavia MID10.814%6/118%

The Fantasy Premier League feed provides goals, xG, minutes and bookings for players. Our chances combine these with our team goal expectation. We list only players with at least a 75% chance of playing.

Expected starting XIs

Sunderland crestSunderland 4-2-3-1

  1. RoefsGK · 9 starts
  2. ReinildoDEF · 8 starts
  3. MukieleDEF · 7 starts, 75% to play
  4. HumeDEF · 6 starts
  5. MeunierDEF · 6 starts
  6. XhakaMID · 9 starts
  7. E.Le FéeMID · 9 starts
  8. SadikiMID · 9 starts
  9. N.AnguloMID · 8 starts
  10. RiggMID · 3 starts
  11. BrobbeyFWD · 7 starts

Unavailable or doubtful: Alderete (Suspended until 21 Nov) and Ballard (Hamstring injury).

Chelsea crestChelsea 4-2-3-1

  1. PendersGK · 2 starts
  2. ColwillDEF · 8 starts
  3. AcheampongDEF · 6 starts
  4. FofanaDEF · 5 starts
  5. GustoDEF · 3 starts
  6. RogersMID · 9 starts
  7. PalmerMID · 9 starts
  8. NetoMID · 8 starts
  9. LaviaMID · 5 starts
  10. HendersonMID · 4 starts, 75% to play
  11. WelbeckFWD · 1 starts

Several players are out or doubtful. Martinez has a Head injury, James a Knee injury, Hato an Unspecified injury, João Pedro a Thigh injury and Lacroix a Hamstring injury.

For Premier League sides, we list each player's starts this season along with availability flags from the Fantasy Premier League. Once the teams are named, ESPN's confirmed line-ups take the place of these, roughly an hour before kick-off.

Chances for correct scores

For each score, the chance in %, with Sunderland goals down the side and Chelsea goals across
012345
06.78.57.13.61.40.4
16.912.59.04.61.80.5
24.97.55.83.01.10.4
32.13.22.51.30.50.1
40.71.00.80.40.20.0
50.20.30.20.10.00.0

Scoring by minute

171-152016-303331-451846-603661-751476-90

Sunderland, 11 games played. Chelsea, 12 games played. This season's ESPN match events provide the goals scored by minute.

Corners and card counts

Latest form

Sunderland crestSunderland

Sunderland's last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octat Coventry1-3L
Wed 28 Octv Brentford3-2W
Sun 25 Octv Leeds0-0D
Sun 18 Octat Bournemouth0-2L
Sat 10 Octv Brighton0-2L
Sun 20 Sepat Man City3-5L

Sunderland is listed first in the scores.

Chelsea crestChelsea

Chelsea's last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octv Man United2-0W
Wed 28 Octat Liverpool1-1D
Sat 24 Octv Tottenham0-2L
Sat 17 Octat Everton2-0W
Sat 10 Octv Bournemouth5-1W
Fri 18 Sepat Brentford0-3L

Chelsea comes first in the scores.

Head to head

DateCompetitionResultHalf timeCorners
Sun 24 May 2026Premier LeagueSunderland 2-1 Chelsea1-014
Sat 25 Oct 2025Premier LeagueChelsea 1-2 Sunderland1-110

Premier League standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
2Manchester City crestManchester City9702+1021
3Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton & Hove Albion9612+1719
4Chelsea crestChelsea9513+416
5Liverpool crestLiverpool9432+215
6Brentford crestBrentford9351+714
18Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace9216-127
19Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest9135-66
20Sunderland crestSunderland9126-105

The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.

Further Premier League predictions