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Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace prediction

Tottenham Hotspur crestSpurs
2-0full time, Sat 31 Oct
PalaceCrystal Palace crest
2-1predicted score (9%)
58%both teams score
55%over 2.5 goals
1.64-1.25expected goals

After removing the market margin, the average of 6 UK bookmakers makes Spurs 62%, the draw 22% and Palace 17%.

The model's view

Spurs sit 9th in the Premier League. They've collected 12 points from 9 games. The table places Palace 18th with 7 points from 9 games, 5 points behind.

Spurs' last 6 produced 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 9 scored and 8 conceded. Palace's last 6 brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses. They scored 6 and conceded 11.

This season, 38% of Spurs games featured both teams scoring and 38% had over 2.5 goals. For Palace, those figures are 50% and 62%. Spurs' expected goals are 1.02 a game, with 1.24 allowed. Palace's are 1.38, with 1.97 allowed.

Since August 2024, our results list 4 meetings. Of those, 1 ended with a Spurs win, 3 with a Palace win and 0 were level. Most recently, on Thursday 5 March 2026, the result was Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace.

Sávio, a regular starter this season, is expected to be absent for Spurs.

At 46%, a Spurs win is the model's likeliest result, ahead of the draw at 26% and Palace 28%. For Spurs, expected goals are 1.64. For Palace, they are 1.25. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers have it at 62%, so the market sees more chance than we do.

The predicted score is Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 Crystal Palace. At 12.1%, 1-1 is the most likely exact score. Within the result we favor, 2-1 is the likeliest score.

Team stats for Spurs and Palace

Per gameTottenham Hotspur crestSpursCrystal Palace crestPalace
Games55
Goals scored a game1.800.80
Goals conceded a game1.601.60
Both teams scored80%20%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%
Clean sheets20%40%
Corners won / conceded6.2 / 3.25.0 / 6.0
Yellow cards a game2.22.2
xG for / against1.20 / 0.811.46 / 1.90

Fair prices and the best UK odds

Match resultSpurs win46%6/58/15 bet365-29.8%
Draw26%3/17/2 bet365+15.6%
Palace win28%5/25/1 Betfred+70.6%
Double chanceSpurs or draw72%2/5
Palace or draw54%5/6
Draw no betSpurs62%8/13
Palace38%13/8
Both teams to scoreYes58%8/11
No42%11/8
GoalsOver 1.579%1/4
Over 2.555%4/54/7 bet365-13.5%
Under 2.545%5/411/8 bet365+6.8%
Over 3.533%2/1
Result and BTTSSpurs and yes23%10/3
Draw and yes19%4/1
Palace and yes15%11/2
Result and goalsSpurs and over 2.530%9/4
Palace and over 2.518%9/2
Spurs and under 2.516%11/2
Palace and under 2.511%17/2
Half time / full timeSpurs / Spurs28%5/2
Palace / Palace17%5/1
Draw / Spurs16%11/2
Draw / Draw14%6/1
CornersOver 9.554%5/6
Over 10.543%11/8
CardsOver 3.551%evens
Over 4.534%15/8

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which has match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. Where we have both numbers, edge shows it.

Goalscorer and card probabilities

Tottenham Hotspur crestSpursGallagher MID11.442%11/860%
Tottenham Hotspur crestSpursSolanke FWD11.938%13/818%
Tottenham Hotspur crestSpursKudus MID01.227%11/40%
Tottenham Hotspur crestSpursVan Hecke DEF21.620%4/120%
Crystal Palace crestPalaceStrand Larsen FWD11.425%3/10%
Crystal Palace crestPalaceKhalaili DEF11.215%11/223%
Crystal Palace crestPalaceYeremy MID11.012%15/231%
Crystal Palace crestPalaceKamada MID10.910%9/120%

For each chance, we combine goals, xG, minutes and bookings for each player with the team's expected goals and the referee's card rate. The Fantasy Premier League feed supplies the player figures. We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.

The starting elevens

Tottenham Hotspur crestSpurs 4-2-3-1

  1. Kinsky, Antonín.GK
  2. Gray, Archie.DEF
  3. Robertson, Andy.DEF
  4. Fernandes, Mateus.MID
  5. van Hecke, Jan PaulDEF
  6. van de Ven, MickyDEF
  7. Kudus, Mohammed.MID
  8. Tonali, Sandro.MID
  9. Solanke, Dominic.FWD
  10. Marmoush, Omar.MID
  11. Tel, Mathys.MID

Crystal Palace crestPalace 3-4-2-1

  1. Henderson, Dean.GK
  2. Mingueza, Óscar.MID
  3. Mitchell, Tyrick.MID
  4. Canvot, Jaydee.DEF
  5. Disasi, Axel.DEF
  6. Richards, Chris.DEF
  7. Wharton, Adam.MID
  8. Kamada, Daichi.MID
  9. Jean-Philippe MatetaFWD
  10. McNeil, Dwight.FWD
  11. Pino, Yéremy.FWD

ESPN gave us the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Chances for correct scores

Each score's chance in %, with Spurs goals down the side and Palace goals across
012345
06.36.34.31.80.60.1
18.512.17.13.00.90.2
27.59.35.82.40.80.2
34.15.13.21.30.40.1
41.72.11.30.50.20.0
50.60.70.40.20.10.0

When the goals come

111-151016-302431-451546-603261-758176-90

Spurs, 11 games and Palace, 11 games. Goals by minute this season come from ESPN match events.

Corners, plus cards

Latest form

Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur

Spurs, last 6
Result
Sat 24 Octat Chelsea2-0W
Mon 19 Octv Coventry3-1W
Sat 10 Octat Man United1-1D
Sat 19 Sepv Aston Villa2-3L
Tue 15 Sepat Liverpool1-3L
Sat 12 Sepv Everton0-0D

Here, Spurs scores come first.

Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

Palace, last 6
Result
Wed 28 Octat Fulham1-0W
Sun 25 Octv Newcastle0-2L
Sun 18 Octat Brighton0-5L
Sun 11 Octv Nott'm Forest3-1W
Sun 20 Sepat Leeds0-0D
Sat 12 Sepv Ipswich2-3L

Here, Palace scores come first.

Head to head

Thu 5 Mar 2026Premier LeagueTottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace1-39
Sun 28 Dec 2025Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 0-1 Tottenham0-15
Sun 11 May 2025Premier LeagueTottenham 0-2 Crystal Palace0-112
Sun 27 Oct 2024Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 1-0 Tottenham1-016

Premier League standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
7Everton crestEverton9342+013
8AFC Bournemouth crestAFC Bournemouth9333+112
9Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur9333+012
10Aston Villa crestAston Villa9333-312
11Hull City crestHull City9252+111
16Coventry City crestCoventry City9306-79
17Manchester United crestManchester United9144-57
18Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace9216-127
19Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest9135-66
20Sunderland crestSunderland9126-105

ESPN supplied the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.

Other Premier League predictions