Oldham Athletic vs Exeter City prediction
Our assessment
In League Two, Oldham have earned 15 points across 14 matches and sit 18th. A total of 19 points from 14 matches places Exeter 12th, 4 points ahead.
Across their last 6 games, Oldham recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 scored and 6 conceded. Of their last 6 matches, Exeter took 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, having scored 7 and conceded 3.
So far this season, 43% of Oldham's games featured both teams scoring, while 43% had over 2.5 goals. For Exeter, the rates are 29% and 21%. Oldham generate 1.40 expected goals each game and allow 1.27. Exeter's figures are 1.08 created and 1.11 conceded.
Our model picks an Oldham win as the likeliest outcome, at 38%. The draw sits at 31% and Exeter 31%, all worked out from 1.15 expected goals for Oldham and 1.02 for Exeter.
Score prediction: Oldham Athletic 1-0 Exeter City. At 14.2%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. For the outcome we favor, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Oldham v Exeter
| Per game |  Oldham |  Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.2 / 6.4 | 3.6 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.57 / 1.46 | 1.06 / 1.07 |
| Per game | Oldham | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.36 | 0.64 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 21% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.5 | 4.4 / 4.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.40 / 1.27 | 1.08 / 1.11 |
| Per game | Oldham | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 0.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 29% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 5.4 | 3.6 / 5.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.28 / 1.10 | 0.71 / 1.51 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Oldham win | 38% | 13/8 |
| Draw | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Exeter win | 31% | 11/5 | |
| Double chance | Oldham or draw | 69% | 4/9 |
| Exeter or draw | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Draw no bet | Oldham | 55% | 5/6 |
| Exeter | 45% | 6/5 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 5/4 |
| No | 55% | 4/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 65% | 8/15 |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 17/10 | |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 4/7 | |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 9/2 | |
| Result and BTTS | Oldham and yes | 14% | 6/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Exeter and yes | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Result and goals | Oldham and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 |
| Exeter and over 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Oldham and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Exeter and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Oldham / Oldham | 22% | 18/5 |
| Draw / Draw | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Exeter / Exeter | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Oldham | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51% | evens |
| Over 10.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 43% | 13/10 |
| Over 4.5 | 27% | 13/5 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.
Line-up predictions
Oldham 3-4-1-2
- Hudson, Matthew.GK
- Scott-Morriss, Gus.MID
- Robson, Jamie.MID
- Monthe, Emmanuel.DEF
- Daniels, Donervon.DEF
- Sutton, Will.DEF
- Norburn, Oliver.MID
- Pett, Thomas.MID
- Chilvers, Noah.MID
- Fondop-Talom, Mike.FWD
- Kavanagh, Calum.FWD
They began at Northampton on Tue 3 Nov.
Exeter 4-2-3-1
- Bycroft, Jack.GK
- Samuel, Lakyle.DEF
- Woodhouse, Luca.DEF
- Cummins, Charlie.MID
- Taylor, Jack.DEF
- Fitzwater, Jack.DEF
- Birch, George.MID
- Kite, Harry.MID
- Cox, Sonny.FWD
- Taylor PerryMID
- Scully, Anthony.MID
They started Sat 31 Oct at Salford City.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
Oldham, 15 games played. Exeter, 15 games.
Corners plus cards
- 9.8corners expected (Oldham 5.1, Exeter 4.8; league 9.9)
- Yellow cards expected: 3.4(league 3.7)
Form guide
Oldham Athletic
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Northampton | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Crawley Town | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Barnet | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Walsall | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cheltenham | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Accrington | 0-0 | D |
Oldham's score is listed first.
Exeter City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Salford | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Fleetwood Town | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Crewe | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Colchester | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Shrewsbury | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Rotherham | 1-0 | W |
Exeter's score is listed first.
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere Rovers | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00