Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley prediction
The analysis we offer
In League Two, Port Vale sit 19th, earning 15 points from 12 games. Accrington sit 9th on 19 points from 14 games, 4 points clear.
Port Vale's last 6 saw 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 7 scored and 7 conceded. Accrington's last 6 brought 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 12 goals scored and 3 conceded.
So far this season, 33% of Port Vale games saw both sides score and 17% had more than 2.5 goals. For Accrington, the figures were 64% and 50%. Expected goals per game come to 1.30 created and 1.02 allowed for Port Vale, and 1.42 created and 1.14 allowed for Accrington.
Since August 2024, our results show 2 meetings, with 1 Port Vale win, 0 Accrington wins and 1 draw. Their most recent meeting, Saturday 1 February 2025, saw Port Vale 2-1 Accrington.
Based on expected goals of 1.20 (Port Vale) and 0.92 (Accrington), the model rates a Port Vale win as the likeliest outcome at 42%. The draw sits at 31%, with Accrington 27%.
Our prediction is Port Vale 1-0 Accrington Stanley. At 14.0%, 1-1 is the single likeliest exact score; 1-0 is the likeliest score in the result we favor.
Stats for Port Vale v Accrington
| Per game |  Port Vale |  Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.8 | 6.6 / 3.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.75 / 0.88 | 1.19 / 0.68 |
| Per game | Port Vale | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.83 | 1.64 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 1.21 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.1 | 5.2 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.30 / 1.02 | 1.42 / 1.14 |
| Per game | Port Vale | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.33 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 1.29 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 4.3 | 4.9 / 5.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| xG for / against | 1.90 / 0.64 | 1.21 / 1.40 |
| Per game | Port Vale | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 4.0 | 4.0 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Port Vale win | 42% | 11/8 |
| Draw | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Accrington win | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Double chance | Port Vale or draw | 73% | 4/11 |
| Accrington or draw | 58% | 8/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Port Vale | 61% | 4/6 |
| Accrington | 39% | 6/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 11/8 |
| No | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 63% | 4/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 7/4 | |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 4/7 | |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Result and BTTS | Port Vale and yes | 15% | 6/1 |
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Accrington and yes | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Result and goals | Port Vale and over 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 |
| Accrington and over 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Port Vale and under 2.5 | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Accrington and under 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Port Vale / Port Vale | 24% | 3/1 |
| Draw / Draw | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Draw / Port Vale | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Accrington / Accrington | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53% | 10/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 5/2 |
A fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance. For this match, our feed has no UK bookmaker prices yet; football-data.co.uk normally lists them two or three days before the game starts.
Line-ups we expect
Port Vale 3-5-2
- Marosi, Marko.GK
- Lawrence-Gabriel, Jordan.MID
- Headley, Jaheim.MID
- Hall, Connor.DEF
- Moon, Jasper.DEF
- Humphreys, Cameron.DEF
- Dempsey, Kyle.MID
- Hall, George.MID
- Hernández, Onel.FWD
- Watters, Max.FWD
- Byers, George.MID
They started against Rochdale on Sat 31 Oct.
Accrington 3-4-1-2
- Moulden, Louie.GK
- Love, Donald.MID
- Tutonda, David.MID
- Anderson, Joseph.DEF
- Rawson, Farrend.DEF
- Matthews, Devon.DEF
- Borland, Aidan.MID
- Mols, Stefan.MID
- Henderson, Alex.MID
- Walton, Tyler.FWD
- Warren, Charlie.FWD
They started against Northampton on Sat 31 Oct.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven players who started their most recent match. Once ESPN confirms the teams, they replace these line-ups about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 14.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For Port Vale, 13 games; for Accrington, 15 games. This season's goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- 10.1corners expected, with Port Vale 5.0 and Accrington 5.1; the league has 9.9
- 3.5yellow cards expected; the league has 3.7
Latest form
Port Vale
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Rochdale | 4-2 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at York | 0-2 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Gillingham | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Chesterfield | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Grimsby | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Walsall | 0-2 | L |
Port Vale is listed first in the scores.
Accrington Stanley
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Northampton | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Rochdale | 5-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at York | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Gillingham | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Oldham | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Cheltenham | 2-0 | W |
Accrington is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 1 Feb 2025 | League Two | Port Vale 2-1 Accrington | 1-0 | 9 |
| Sat 21 Sep 2024 | League Two | Accrington 2-2 Port Vale | 2-0 | 11 |
The League Two table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |  York City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere Rovers | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.