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Exeter City vs Cheltenham Town prediction

Exeter City crestExeter
12:30Saturday 14 November
CheltenhamCheltenham Town crest
1-0predicted score (11%)
53%both teams score
52%over 2.5 goals
1.75-0.99expected goals

Our breakdown

In the League Two table, Exeter sit 12th on 19 points from 14 games. Cheltenham sit 5th in the table on 21 points from 14 games, 2 points ahead.

Exeter's last 6 games brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 7 scored and 3 conceded. Cheltenham's last 6 brought 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 7 scored and 13 against.

So far this season, 29% of Exeter games saw both teams score and 21% went over 2.5 goals. Cheltenham's figures are 79% and 71%. Exeter create 1.08 expected goals a game and allow 1.11; Cheltenham's numbers are 1.07 created and 1.61 allowed.

An Exeter win is the likeliest outcome in the model at 55% (draw 25%, Cheltenham 20%), built on expected goals: 1.75 for Exeter, 0.99 for Cheltenham.

We predict Exeter City 1-0 Cheltenham Town. Of all exact scores, 1-1 ranks first at 11.8%. For the result we favor, 1-0 has the highest chance.

Stats: Exeter v Cheltenham

Per gameExeter City crestExeterCheltenham Town crestCheltenham
Games55
Goals scored a game1.201.40
Goals conceded a game0.602.20
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%60%
Clean sheets60%20%
Corners won / conceded3.6 / 5.24.0 / 3.8
Yellow cards a game1.62.8
xG for / against1.06 / 1.070.97 / 1.52

Fair prices for each market

Match resultExeter win55%5/6
Draw25%3/1
Cheltenham win20%4/1
Double chanceExeter or draw80%1/4
Cheltenham or draw45%6/5
Draw no betExeter73%4/11
Cheltenham27%11/4
Both teams to scoreYes53%10/11
No47%11/10
GoalsOver 1.577%3/10
Over 2.552%10/11
Under 2.548%21/20
Over 3.530%5/2
Result and BTTSExeter and yes25%3/1
Draw and yes18%9/2
Cheltenham and yes10%17/2
Result and goalsExeter and over 2.534%15/8
Cheltenham and over 2.512%15/2
Exeter and under 2.521%4/1
Cheltenham and under 2.59%10/1
Half time / full timeExeter / Exeter34%15/8
Draw / Exeter18%9/2
Draw / Draw14%6/1
Cheltenham / Cheltenham12%15/2
CornersOver 9.548%11/10
Over 10.537%7/4
CardsOver 3.546%6/5
Over 4.529%5/2

To find a fair price, divide 1 by our chance of the outcome. Our feed doesn't hold UK prices from bookmakers for this match yet; football-data.co.uk normally posts them two or three days ahead of kick-off.

Line-ups we expect

Exeter City crestExeter 4-2-3-1

  1. Bycroft, Jack.GK
  2. Samuel, Lakyle.DEF
  3. Woodhouse, Luca.DEF
  4. Cummins, Charlie.MID
  5. Taylor, Jack.DEF
  6. Fitzwater, Jack.DEF
  7. Birch, George.MID
  8. Kite, Harry.MID
  9. Cox, Sonny.FWD
  10. Taylor PerryMID
  11. Scully, Anthony.MID

The listed lineup began its match at Salford City on Sat 31 Oct.

Cheltenham Town crestCheltenham 4-2-3-1

  1. Stanway, Wyll.GK
  2. Tomkinson, Jonathan.DEF
  3. Shipley, Jordan.DEF
  4. McWilliams, Shaun.MID
  5. Sweeney, Pierce.DEF
  6. Wilson, James.DEF
  7. Evans, Jake.MID
  8. Stevenson, Ben.MID
  9. Weimann, Andreas.FWD
  10. Mccann, Charlie.MID
  11. Broom, Ryan.MID

The listed lineup began its match at Tranmere on Sat 31 Oct.

For other clubs, we list the eleven who started in their most recent match, according to ESPN. Once the teams are named, ESPN's confirmed selections replace these about an hour before kick-off.

Chances for each correct score

The chance of each score in %, with Exeter goals listed down the side and Cheltenham goals across.
012345
07.15.73.11.00.30.1
110.611.85.51.80.40.1
29.99.84.81.60.40.1
35.85.72.80.90.20.0
42.52.51.20.40.10.0
50.90.90.40.10.00.0

Scoring times

231-151516-301531-452446-602361-753476-90

Exeter, 15 games compared with Cheltenham, 15 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.

Cards and corners

Latest form

Exeter City crestExeter City

Exeter's last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octat Salford1-2L
Sat 24 Octv Fleetwood Town2-1W
Tue 20 Octv Crewe2-0W
Sat 17 Octat Colchester0-0D
Sat 10 Octat Shrewsbury1-0W
Sat 3 Octv Rotherham1-0W

Scores list Exeter first.

Cheltenham Town crestCheltenham Town

Cheltenham last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octat Tranmere1-3L
Sat 24 Octv Newport County1-0W
Tue 20 Octv Fleetwood Town4-2W
Sat 17 Octat Oldham1-4L
Sat 10 Octv Salford0-2L
Sat 3 Octat Accrington0-2L

Scores list Cheltenham first.

League Two table

PosClubPWDLGDPts
3Walsall crestWalsall13571+922
4Crewe Alexandra crestCrewe Alexandra14572+022
5Cheltenham Town crestCheltenham Town14635-221
6Grimsby Town crestGrimsby Town14554+620
7York City crestYork City14554+320
8Gillingham crestGillingham14554+120
9Accrington Stanley crestAccrington Stanley14473+619
10Chesterfield crestChesterfield14545+319
11Tranmere Rovers crestTranmere Rovers14473+219
12Exeter City crestExeter City14545+219
13Swindon Town crestSwindon Town14545-219
14Newport County crestNewport County14464+318

These standings come from ESPN and are dated Wednesday 4 November.

Other League Two predictions