Colchester United vs Gillingham prediction

Colchester

15:00Saturday 14 November

Gillingham

League Two
The match takes place at JobServe Community Stadium.
Our feed hasn't named a referee yet.
UK TV won't show the match live (Saturday blackout)

1-0predicted score (12%)

48%both teams score

45%over 2.5 goals

1.53-0.94expected goals

50%27%22%

Our breakdown

Colchester sit 23rd in the League Two, picking up 12 points from 13 games. Gillingham sit 8th with 20 points from 14 matches, 8 points ahead.

Across their last 6 matches, Colchester recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 9. In their last 6 games, Gillingham recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 10.

This season, 62% of Colchester games saw both teams score, and 38% of them went over 2.5 goals; for Gillingham they are 57% and 57%. Colchester create 1.18 expected goals a game and allow 1.47; Gillingham's figures are 1.15 created and 1.40 allowed.

Since August 2024, our results show 4 meetings: 1 Colchester win, 0 Gillingham wins and 3 draws. The most recent meeting ended Gillingham 1-1 Colchester on Monday 29 December 2025.

A Colchester win is what our model rates most likely, at 50%. The draw gets 27% and Gillingham 22%, and the expected goals behind that are 1.53 for Colchester, 0.94 for Gillingham.

The scoreline we predict is Colchester United 1-0 Gillingham. Of all the exact scores, 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.9%. Within the outcome we favour, 1-0 is the likeliest score.

Stats: Colchester v Gillingham

Per game	Colchester	Gillingham
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	0.40	1.80
Goals conceded a game	1.40	2.00
Both teams scored	40%	100%
Over 2.5 goals	20%	80%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Corners won / conceded	4.6 / 5.4	3.6 / 6.0
Yellow cards a game	1.8	2.6
xG for / against	1.23 / 1.38	1.27 / 1.66

Per game	Colchester	Gillingham
Games	13	14
Goals scored a game	0.92	1.43
Goals conceded a game	1.46	1.36
Both teams scored	62%	57%
Over 2.5 goals	38%	57%
Clean sheets	15%	29%
Corners won / conceded	4.3 / 5.2	3.6 / 5.6
Yellow cards a game	1.3	2.6
xG for / against	1.18 / 1.47	1.15 / 1.40

Per game	Colchester	Gillingham
Games	6	7
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.71
Goals conceded a game	1.00	1.43
Both teams scored	67%	71%
Over 2.5 goals	33%	71%
Clean sheets	33%	14%
Corners won / conceded	5.3 / 4.2	2.4 / 6.9
Yellow cards a game	1.7	2.4
xG for / against	1.49 / 0.92	1.16 / 1.45

Per game	Colchester	Gillingham
Games	4	4
Goals scored a game	1.00	0.50
Goals conceded a game	0.50	1.00
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheets	50%	25%
Corners won / conceded	2.5 / 6.2	6.2 / 2.5
Yellow cards a game	2.2	1.8

Fair odds for each market


Match result	Colchester win	50%	evens
	Draw	27%	11/4
	Gillingham win	22%	7/2
Double chance	Colchester or draw	78%	2/7
	Gillingham or draw	50%	evens
Draw no bet	Colchester	69%	4/9
	Gillingham	31%	9/4
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	21/20
	No	52%	10/11
Goals	Over 1.5	71%	2/5
	Over 2.5	45%	5/4
	Under 2.5	55%	4/5
	Over 3.5	24%	10/3
Result and BTTS	Colchester and yes	20%	4/1
	Draw and yes	18%	9/2
	Gillingham and yes	10%	9/1
Result and goals	Colchester and over 2.5	28%	5/2
	Gillingham and over 2.5	12%	15/2
	Colchester and under 2.5	22%	7/2
	Gillingham and under 2.5	11%	8/1
Half time / full time	Colchester / Colchester	31%	9/4
	Draw / Colchester	18%	9/2
	Draw / Draw	17%	5/1
	Gillingham / Gillingham	13%	7/1
Corners	Over 9.5	47%	11/10
	Over 10.5	36%	7/4
Cards	Over 3.5	52%	10/11
	Over 4.5	35%	15/8

Match result

Colchester win

50%

evens

Draw

27%

11/4

Gillingham win

22%

7/2

Double chance

Colchester or draw

78%

2/7

Gillingham or draw

50%

evens

Draw no bet

Colchester

69%

4/9

Gillingham

31%

9/4

Both teams to score

Yes

48%

21/20

52%

10/11

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

2/5

Over 2.5

45%

5/4

Under 2.5

55%

4/5

Over 3.5

24%

10/3

Result and BTTS

Colchester and yes

20%

4/1

Draw and yes

18%

9/2

Gillingham and yes

10%

9/1

Result and goals

Colchester and over 2.5

28%

5/2

Gillingham and over 2.5

12%

15/2

Colchester and under 2.5

22%

7/2

Gillingham and under 2.5

11%

8/1

Half time / full time

Colchester / Colchester

31%

9/4

Draw / Colchester

18%

9/2

Draw / Draw

17%

5/1

Gillingham / Gillingham

13%

7/1

Corners

Over 9.5

47%

11/10

Over 10.5

36%

7/4

Cards

Over 3.5

52%

10/11

Over 4.5

35%

15/8

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't yet have UK bookmaker prices for this match. Two or three days before kick-off, football-data.co.uk usually adds them.

Expected team line-ups

Colchester 4-2-3-1

Lo-Tutala, Thimothee.GK
Vincent-Young, Kane.DEF
Iandolo, Ellis.DEF
Digby, Paul.MID
Tucker, Jack.DEF
Raggett, Sean.DEF
Thorn, Oscar.MID
Williams, Jay.MID
Chiwome, Leon.FWD
Payne, Jack.MID
Sesay, Moses.MID

They started against Walsall on Sat 31 Oct.

Gillingham 3-4-3

Wright, Oliver.GK
Freeman, Nick.MID
Mcmanus, Conor.MID
Dobbs, Logan.DEF
Beckles, Omar.DEF
Smith, Andy.DEF
Brophy, James.MID
Coleman, Ethan.MID
Sillah, Lamin.FWD
Waldock, Harry.FWD
Hale, Ronan.FWD

They started Sat 31 Oct at Shrewsbury.

For other clubs, we list the eleven who started their most recent match, taken from ESPN. Once the teams are confirmed, ESPN's line-ups replace these about an hour ahead of kick-off.

Chances for each correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Colchester goals down the side and Gillingham goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9.2	7.2	3.7	1.2	0.3	0.1
1	12.2	12.9	5.7	1.8	0.4	0.1
2	9.9	9.3	4.4	1.4	0.3	0.1
3	5.0	4.7	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.0
4	1.9	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
5	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

Scoring times

Games covered: Colchester, 14; Gillingham, 15. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.

Corners plus cards

Corners expected: 9.5 (league 9.9; Colchester 5.2, Gillingham 4.3).
Yellow cards expected: 3.9 (league 3.7).

Latest form

Colchester United

Colchester's last 6
			Result
Sat 31 Oct	v Walsall	1-3	L
Sat 24 Oct	at Northampton	0-2	L
Tue 20 Oct	at Chesterfield	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	v Exeter	0-0	D
Sat 10 Oct	at Newport County	0-1	L
Sat 26 Sep	at Shrewsbury	2-2	D

Colchester's score is listed first.

Gillingham

Gillingham's last 6
			Result
Sat 31 Oct	at Shrewsbury	2-1	W
Sat 24 Oct	v Grimsby	1-4	L
Tue 20 Oct	v Port Vale	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	at Accrington	1-3	L
Sat 10 Oct	at Rotherham	4-1	W
Sat 3 Oct	v Newport County	0-0	D

Gillingham's score comes first.

Head to head


Mon 29 Dec 2025	League Two	Gillingham 1-1 Colchester	0-0	11
Sat 6 Dec 2025	League Two	Colchester 0-0 Gillingham	0-0	7
Tue 1 Apr 2025	League Two	Gillingham 1-1 Colchester	0-1	12
Thu 26 Dec 2024	League Two	Colchester 2-0 Gillingham	1-0	5

League Two standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
6	Grimsby Town	14	5	5	4	+6	20
7	York City	14	5	5	4	+3	20
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20
9	Accrington Stanley	14	4	7	3	+6	19
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19
21	Northampton Town	13	3	5	5	-1	14
22	Rotherham United	14	2	6	6	-7	12
23	Colchester United	13	2	6	5	-7	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9