football-tips.uk

Crewe Alexandra vs Newport County prediction

Crewe Alexandra crestCrewe
15:00Saturday 14 November
NewportNewport County crest
1-0predicted score (11%)
52%both teams score
49%over 2.5 goals
1.59-1.03expected goals

Our assessment

Crewe sit 4th in League Two, earning 22 points across 14 games. Newport sit 14th with 18 points from 14 games, 4 points behind.

Crewe's last 6 matches brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 9 scored and 11 conceded. Newport's last 6 matches brought 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, with 8 scored and 5 conceded.

Both teams scored in 64% of Crewe matches this season, and 29% finished above 2.5 goals. Newport's rates were 57% and 50%. Per game, Crewe create 1.07 expected goals and concede 1.26, while Newport create 1.10 and concede 1.20.

Since August 2024, our results list 4 meetings. Crewe won 0 of them, Newport won 3, and 1 ended level. Their most recent meeting, Monday 29 December 2025, ended with Newport County 2-0 Crewe.

A Crewe win is the likeliest result the model gives, at 50%. The draw sits at 26% and Newport 24%, based on 1.59 expected goals for Crewe and 1.03 for Newport.

Our prediction: Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Newport County. 1-1 at 12.6% ranks as the single most likely exact score; within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the most likely score.

Crewe v Newport numbers

Per gameCrewe Alexandra crestCreweNewport County crestNewport
Games55
Goals scored a game1.201.60
Goals conceded a game2.001.00
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%40%
Clean sheets20%20%
Corners won / conceded3.2 / 4.64.8 / 2.2
Yellow cards a game0.81.8
xG for / against0.93 / 1.151.40 / 1.14

Fair prices for each market

Match resultCrewe win50%evens
Draw26%11/4
Newport win24%10/3
Double chanceCrewe or draw76%3/10
Newport or draw50%evens
Draw no betCrewe68%1/2
Newport32%2/1
Both teams to scoreYes52%10/11
No48%11/10
GoalsOver 1.574%1/3
Over 2.549%21/20
Under 2.551%10/11
Over 3.527%11/4
Result and BTTSCrewe and yes22%7/2
Draw and yes18%9/2
Newport and yes11%8/1
Result and goalsCrewe and over 2.530%5/2
Newport and over 2.513%13/2
Crewe and under 2.520%4/1
Newport and under 2.511%17/2
Half time / full timeCrewe / Crewe31%9/4
Draw / Crewe17%5/1
Draw / Draw15%11/2
Newport / Newport14%13/2
CornersOver 9.543%11/8
Over 10.533%2/1
CardsOver 3.549%21/20
Over 4.532%2/1

Our fair price is 1 divided by the chance we put on it. Prices from UK bookmakers aren't in our feed yet for this match. football-data.co.uk usually adds them two or three days ahead of kick-off.

Line-ups we expect

Crewe Alexandra crestCrewe 4-2-3-1

  1. Lawlor, Ian.GK
  2. Billington, Lewis.DEF
  3. Hutchinson, Reece.DEF
  4. Thomas, Conor.MID
  5. Offord, Luke.DEF
  6. Stephenson, Joshua.DEF
  7. March, Josh.MID
  8. Holícek, Matús.MID
  9. McNeill, Charlie.FWD
  10. Tabiner, Joel.MID
  11. Gibson, Jordan.MID

Those players started v Barnet on Sat 31 Oct.

Newport County crestNewport 4-2-3-1

  1. Wright, Jordan.GK
  2. Cameron NormanDEF
  3. Davies, Tom.DEF
  4. Brennan, Ciaran.MID
  5. Jenkins, Lee.DEF
  6. Cameron, Kyle.DEF
  7. Michael Adu-PokuMID
  8. Smith, Matt.MID
  9. Etete, Kion.FWD
  10. Biggins, Harrison.MID
  11. Bamba, Yahya.MID

Those players started v Chesterfield on Fri 30 Oct.

For other clubs, ESPN provides the eleven who started their most recent match. Once ESPN confirms the teams, they replace these line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.

Chances of correct scores

Score chances in %, with Crewe goals down the side and Newport goals across.
012345
08.06.83.81.30.30.1
110.912.66.12.10.50.1
29.29.54.91.70.40.1
34.95.02.60.90.20.0
41.92.01.00.40.10.0
50.60.60.30.10.00.0

Scoring by minute

331-154416-302231-455446-601461-756476-90

Game counts: Crewe, 16 matches. Newport, 15 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.

Cards and corners

Form guide

Crewe Alexandra crestCrewe Alexandra

Crewe's last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octv Barnet1-1D
Sat 24 Octat Chesterfield1-5L
Tue 20 Octat Exeter0-2L
Sat 17 Octv Rochdale3-2W
Sat 10 Octat Swindon1-0W
Sat 3 Octv Bristol Rvs3-1W

Crewe's score comes first.

Newport County crestNewport County

Newport's last 6
Result
Fri 30 Octv Chesterfield4-1W
Sat 24 Octat Cheltenham0-1L
Tue 20 Octat Rotherham2-2D
Sat 17 Octv York1-1D
Sat 10 Octv Colchester1-0W
Sat 3 Octat Gillingham0-0D

Newport's score comes first.

Head to head

Mon 29 Dec 2025League TwoNewport County 2-0 Crewe1-010
Wed 10 Dec 2025League TwoCrewe 2-2 Newport County1-05
Sat 8 Feb 2025League TwoCrewe 0-3 Newport County0-218
Sat 28 Sep 2024League TwoNewport County 2-1 Crewe1-07

League Two standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
2Barnet crestBarnet13751+1026
3Walsall crestWalsall13571+922
4Crewe Alexandra crestCrewe Alexandra14572+022
5Cheltenham Town crestCheltenham Town14635-221
6Grimsby Town crestGrimsby Town14554+620
12Exeter City crestExeter City14545+219
13Swindon Town crestSwindon Town14545-219
14Newport County crestNewport County14464+318
15Shrewsbury Town crestShrewsbury Town14536-518
16Fleetwood Town crestFleetwood Town14455+017

ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.

Further League Two predictions