Rotherham United vs Crawley Town prediction

Rotherham

15:00Saturday 14 November

Crawley

League Two
The venue is AESSEAL New York Stadium
We don't have the referee named in our feed yet
Not live on UK TV (the Saturday blackout)

1-0predicted score (10%)

53%both teams score

49%over 2.5 goals

1.52-1.11expected goals

46%27%27%

This analysis comes from us

After 14 games, Rotherham sit 22nd in the League Two table on 12 points. Crawley sit 24th on 9 points from 12 games, trailing by 3 points.

Across their last 6 matches, Rotherham recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 14 conceded. In Crawley's last 6 matches, they won 1, drew 2 and lost 3, with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded.

Both teams scored in 71% of Rotherham games this season, and 57% of those games finished above 2.5 goals. For Crawley, the two figures are 67% and 50%. By expected goals, Rotherham produce 1.29 per match and concede 1.37, while Crawley produce 1.35 and concede 1.71 per match.

Our results list 2 meetings since August 2024, with 0 Rotherham wins, 2 Crawley wins and 0 draws. Their most recent meeting was Saturday 29 March 2025, and Rotherham 0-4 Crawley Town was the result.

The model uses expected goals to rate a Rotherham win as most likely at 46%. Rotherham have 1.52 expected goals and Crawley 1.11, while the draw is 27% and Crawley 27%.

The predicted score is Rotherham United 1-0 Crawley Town. Among exact scores, 1-1 has the highest chance at 12.9%. For the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.

Figures for Rotherham v Crawley

Per game	Rotherham	Crawley
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.40	1.40
Goals conceded a game	2.60	1.60
Both teams scored	80%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Corners won / conceded	2.6 / 5.6	3.8 / 6.2
Yellow cards a game	3.2	1.8
xG for / against	1.05 / 1.70	1.33 / 1.40

Per game	Rotherham	Crawley
Games	14	12
Goals scored a game	1.29	1.08
Goals conceded a game	1.79	1.75
Both teams scored	71%	67%
Over 2.5 goals	57%	50%
Clean sheets	7%	8%
Corners won / conceded	3.4 / 5.1	4.2 / 5.7
Yellow cards a game	2.4	2.7
xG for / against	1.29 / 1.37	1.35 / 1.71

Per game	Rotherham	Crawley
Games	7	6
Goals scored a game	1.86	1.17
Goals conceded a game	2.14	1.50
Both teams scored	100%	67%
Over 2.5 goals	71%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Corners won / conceded	3.1 / 3.7	4.3 / 4.3
Yellow cards a game	2.3	2.5
xG for / against	1.47 / 1.59	1.48 / 1.58

Per game	Rotherham	Crawley
Games	2	2
Goals scored a game	0.00	2.50
Goals conceded a game	2.50	0.00
Both teams scored	0%	0%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Corners won / conceded	6.0 / 2.5	2.5 / 6.0
Yellow cards a game	2.5	2.0

Market fair prices


Match result	Rotherham win	46%	6/5
	Draw	27%	11/4
	Crawley win	27%	11/4
Double chance	Rotherham or draw	73%	4/11
	Crawley or draw	54%	5/6
Draw no bet	Rotherham	63%	4/7
	Crawley	37%	7/4
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	10/11
	No	47%	11/10
Goals	Over 1.5	75%	1/3
	Over 2.5	49%	21/20
	Under 2.5	51%	evens
	Over 3.5	27%	11/4
Result and BTTS	Rotherham and yes	21%	4/1
	Draw and yes	19%	4/1
	Crawley and yes	13%	13/2
Result and goals	Rotherham and over 2.5	27%	11/4
	Crawley and over 2.5	15%	11/2
	Rotherham and under 2.5	19%	9/2
	Crawley and under 2.5	12%	15/2
Half time / full time	Rotherham / Rotherham	28%	5/2
	Draw / Rotherham	16%	5/1
	Draw / Draw	16%	11/2
	Crawley / Crawley	16%	11/2
Corners	Over 9.5	46%	6/5
	Over 10.5	35%	15/8
Cards	Over 3.5	54%	5/6
	Over 4.5	37%	13/8

Match result

Rotherham win

46%

6/5

Draw

27%

11/4

Crawley win

27%

11/4

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

73%

4/11

Crawley or draw

54%

5/6

Draw no bet

Rotherham

63%

4/7

Crawley

37%

7/4

Both teams to score

Yes

53%

10/11

47%

11/10

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

1/3

Over 2.5

49%

21/20

Under 2.5

51%

evens

Over 3.5

27%

11/4

Result and BTTS

Rotherham and yes

21%

4/1

Draw and yes

19%

4/1

Crawley and yes

13%

13/2

Result and goals

Rotherham and over 2.5

27%

11/4

Crawley and over 2.5

15%

11/2

Rotherham and under 2.5

19%

9/2

Crawley and under 2.5

12%

15/2

Half time / full time

Rotherham / Rotherham

28%

5/2

Draw / Rotherham

16%

5/1

Draw / Draw

16%

11/2

Crawley / Crawley

16%

11/2

Corners

Over 9.5

46%

6/5

Over 10.5

35%

15/8

Cards

Over 3.5

54%

5/6

Over 4.5

37%

13/8

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't yet show UK bookmaker prices for this match. football-data.co.uk normally posts them two or three days before the match begins.

Line-ups we predict

Rotherham 4-3-3

Eyestone, Julian.GK
Rafferty, Joseph.DEF
Ngwenya, Kieran.DEF
Fitzgerald, Jayce.MID
Hall, Denzel.DEF
Iorfa, Dominic.DEF
Cover, Brandon.MID
Austerfield, Joshua.MID
Mullin, Paul.FWD
Nemane, Aaron.FWD
Buyabu, Jili.FWD

They started Sat 31 Oct at Swindon.

Crawley 4-1-4-1

Mannone, Vito.GK
Gordon, Kellan.DEF
Richardson, Lewis.DEF
Barker, Charlie.MID
Farquharson, Priestley.DEF
Russell, Jonathan.DEF
Duke-McKenna, Stephen.MID
Arthurs, Jude.MID
Orsi-Dadomo, Danilo.FWD
Jennings, Kai.MID
Morgan, Dylan.MID

They started at Oldham on Sat 31 Oct.

Other clubs: ESPN lists the eleven starters from their most recent match. Once the teams are named, ESPN's confirmed line-ups replace these about an hour before kick-off.

Exact score chances

Each score's chance in %, with Rotherham goals down the side and Crawley goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7.9	7.3	4.4	1.6	0.5	0.1
1	10.2	12.9	6.8	2.5	0.7	0.2
2	8.3	9.2	5.1	1.9	0.5	0.1
3	4.2	4.7	2.6	1.0	0.3	0.1
4	1.6	1.8	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

Scoring times

Rotherham, 15 games and Crawley, 14 games. This season's ESPN match events show goals scored by minute.

Corners plus cards

Corners expected: 9.4 overall, with Rotherham 4.5, Crawley 4.9 and 9.9 for the league average.
Yellow cards expected: 4.0 (league 3.7).

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