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Liverpool vs Manchester United prediction

Liverpool crestLiverpool
16:30Sunday 22 November
Man UtdManchester United crest
2-1predicted score (10%)
63%both teams score
63%over 2.5 goals
1.92-1.33expected goals

Our breakdown

Liverpool sit 5th in the Premier League, earning 15 points from 9 games. In 17th place, Man Utd have 7 points from 9 and trail by 8.

Liverpool's last 6 games gave them 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. They scored 6 and allowed 6. Man Utd's last 6 show 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 11 conceded.

So far this season, both teams scored in 33% of Liverpool matches, while 44% went above 2.5 goals. For Man Utd, the rates are 56% and 33%. Liverpool's expected goals run at 1.46 a game, with 1.17 facing them. Man Utd's figures are 1.53 created and 1.66 conceded.

Since August 2024, our results show they have met 4 times, with Liverpool winning 1, Man Utd winning 2 and 1 ending level. Their most recent meeting, on Sunday 3 May 2026, ended with Man United 3-2 Liverpool.

Both Martinez and Shaw, regular starters this season, are expected to be unavailable for Man Utd.

Our model rates a Liverpool win the likeliest outcome: 51% for the win, 23% for a draw and Man Utd 26%. It uses expected goals: Liverpool 1.92, Man Utd 1.33.

We predict Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United. At 10.5%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. For the result we favor, 2-1 has the highest chance.

Liverpool v Man Utd statistics

Per gameLiverpool crestLiverpoolManchester United crestMan Utd
Games55
Goals scored a game1.000.60
Goals conceded a game1.201.60
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%20%
Clean sheets20%0%
Corners won / conceded6.2 / 3.86.4 / 4.2
Yellow cards a game3.03.4
xG for / against1.21 / 1.111.15 / 1.96

Fair odds for each market

Match resultLiverpool win51%evens
Draw23%10/3
Man Utd win26%29/10
Double chanceLiverpool or draw74%1/3
Man Utd or draw49%21/20
Draw no betLiverpool66%1/2
Man Utd34%2/1
Both teams to scoreYes63%4/7
No37%17/10
GoalsOver 1.584%2/11
Over 2.563%4/7
Under 2.537%17/10
Over 3.541%6/4
Result and BTTSLiverpool and yes29%5/2
Draw and yes19%9/2
Man Utd and yes16%11/2
Result and goalsLiverpool and over 2.537%17/10
Man Utd and over 2.518%9/2
Liverpool and under 2.514%6/1
Man Utd and under 2.58%12/1
Half time / full timeLiverpool / Liverpool32%21/10
Draw / Liverpool16%11/2
Man Utd / Man Utd15%11/2
Draw / Draw12%15/2
CornersOver 9.556%4/5
Over 10.545%5/4
CardsOver 3.559%4/6
Over 4.542%11/8

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.

Chances for goalscorers and cards

Liverpool crestLiverpoolIsak FWD64.351%evens12%
Liverpool crestLiverpoolSzoboszlai MID11.528%5/215%
Liverpool crestLiverpoolGakpo MID11.224%16/50%
Liverpool crestLiverpoolWirtz MID01.520%4/111%
Manchester United crestMan UtdMbeumo MID44.232%21/1020%
Manchester United crestMan UtdB.Fernandes MID33.026%14/522%
Manchester United crestMan UtdRashford MID00.815%11/20%
Manchester United crestMan UtdCunha MID11.415%11/20%

We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.

Line-up predictions

Liverpool crestLiverpool 4-2-3-1

  1. A.BeckerGK · 9 starts
  2. VirgilDEF · 9 starts
  3. JacquetDEF · 9 starts
  4. KerkezDEF · 8 starts
  5. AraujoDEF · 7 starts
  6. WirtzMID · 9 starts
  7. Mac AllisterMID · 7 starts
  8. GakpoMID · 6 starts
  9. BarcolaMID · 6 starts
  10. SzoboszlaiMID · 6 starts
  11. IsakFWD · 8 starts

Frimpong is out or doubtful with a Hamstring problem.

Manchester United crestThe Utd 4-2-3-1 setup.

  1. The name is Senne Lammens.GK
  2. The name is Leny Yoro.DEF
  3. The name is Diogo Dalot.DEF
  4. Santos, Andrey.MID
  5. Maguire, Harry.DEF
  6. Martínez, Lisandro.DEF
  7. Diallo, Amad.MID
  8. Baleba, Carlos.MID
  9. Mbeumo, Bryan.FWD
  10. Fernandes, Bruno.MID
  11. Cunha, Matheus.MID

They started at Chelsea on Sat 31 Oct.

Chances for the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Liverpool goals down the side and Man Utd goals across
012345
04.54.63.41.50.50.1
16.910.56.62.91.00.3
27.29.56.32.80.90.2
34.66.14.01.80.60.2
42.22.91.90.90.30.1
50.81.10.70.30.10.0

When the goals come

221-153016-301231-454246-602361-753376-90

For Liverpool it's 11 games, and for Man Utd, 10 games.

Corner and card figures

Form in recent matches

Liverpool crestLiverpool

Liverpool in the last 6
Result
Sun 1 Novv Arsenal0-1L
Wed 28 Octv Chelsea1-1D
Sun 25 Octv Brighton2-0W
Sat 17 Octat Brentford2-1W
Sun 11 Octv Man City0-3L
Sun 20 Sepat Bournemouth1-0W

Liverpool is listed first in the scores.

Manchester United crestManchester United

Man Utd in the last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octat Chelsea0-2L
Sun 25 Octv Bournemouth0-3L
Sun 18 Octat Leeds1-1D
Sat 10 Octv Tottenham1-1D
Sun 20 Sepat Fulham1-1D
Wed 16 Sepv Brighton2-3L

In the score listings, Man Utd appears first.

Head to head

Sun 3 May 2026Premier LeagueMan United 3-2 Liverpool2-05
Sun 19 Oct 2025Premier LeagueLiverpool 1-2 Man United0-113
Sun 5 Jan 2025Premier LeagueLiverpool 2-2 Man United0-015
Sun 1 Sep 2024Premier LeagueMan United 0-3 Liverpool0-27

The Premier League table

PosClubPWDLGDPts
3Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton & Hove Albion9612+1719
4Chelsea crestChelsea9513+416
5Liverpool crestLiverpool9432+215
6Brentford crestBrentford9351+714
7Everton crestEverton9342+013
15Fulham crestFulham9234-29
16Coventry City crestCoventry City9306-79
17Manchester United crestManchester United9144-57
18Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace9216-127
19Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest9135-66

Standings updated Thursday 5 November

Other Premier League predictions