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Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction

Aston Villa crestAston Villa
1-1full time, Sat 31 Oct
FulhamFulham crest
1-0predicted score (10%)
55%both teams score
51%over 2.5 goals
1.54-1.16expected goals

Across 6 UK bookmakers, the average market odds with no margin show Aston Villa 49%, draw 26% and Fulham 26%.

What the model found

Aston Villa place 10th in the Premier League, earning 12 points from 9 games. Fulham hold 15th place with 9 points from 9 games, 3 points behind.

Aston Villa's last 6 show 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss; they scored 11 and conceded 9. Fulham's last 6 show 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 7 goals for and 6 against.

For Aston Villa, both teams scored in 50% of matches this season, and 62% had more than 2.5 goals. Fulham's rates are 50% and 38%. Aston Villa's expected goals are 1.12 a game, with 1.61 allowed; Fulham stand at 1.44 created and 1.30 allowed.

Since August 2024, our results show 4 meetings, with Aston Villa winning 3, Fulham winning 1 and 0 draws. On Saturday 25 April 2026, the most recent meeting ended Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa.

Cash and Wan-Bissaka, regular starters this season, are both expected to be unavailable for Aston Villa.

Expected goals stand at 1.54 for Aston Villa and 1.16 for Fulham. From those figures, the model rates an Aston Villa win at 45%, with the draw on 27% and Fulham 28%. After taking out their margin, UK bookmakers put it at 49%, so the market sees it as more likely than we do.

The predicted score is Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham. One exact score stands alone as most likely: 1-1 at 12.7%. Inside the result we favor, 1-0 is the likeliest score.

Stats for Aston Villa v Fulham

Per gameAston Villa crestAston VillaFulham crestFulham
Games55
Goals scored a game1.600.80
Goals conceded a game1.600.80
Both teams scored60%40%
Over 2.5 goals80%20%
Clean sheets20%40%
Corners won / conceded3.0 / 6.06.0 / 5.2
Yellow cards a game2.53.0
xG for / against1.41 / 1.291.34 / 0.85

Best UK odds and fair prices

Match resultAston Villa win45%6/5evens Betfred-9.3%
Draw27%11/411/4 bet365+0.1%
Fulham win28%5/211/4 bet365+6.3%
Double chanceAston Villa or draw72%2/5
Fulham or draw55%5/6
Draw no betAston Villa62%8/13
Fulham38%13/8
Both teams to scoreYes55%5/6
No45%6/5
GoalsOver 1.576%1/3
Over 2.551%evens4/6 bet365-15.3%
Under 2.549%21/206/5 bet365+8.4%
Over 3.529%5/2
Result and BTTSAston Villa and yes21%7/2
Draw and yes19%4/1
Fulham and yes14%6/1
Result and goalsAston Villa and over 2.528%5/2
Fulham and over 2.516%5/1
Aston Villa and under 2.518%9/2
Fulham and under 2.512%15/2
Half time / full timeAston Villa / Aston Villa28%11/4
Fulham / Fulham16%5/1
Draw / Aston Villa16%11/2
Draw / Draw15%11/2
CornersOver 9.552%10/11
Over 10.541%11/8
CardsOver 3.555%4/5
Over 4.539%13/8

Dividing 1 by our chance gives a fair price. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which covers over/under 2.5 and match odds only; the edge appears wherever we have both numbers.

Chances for goalscorers and cards

Aston Villa crestAston VillaManzambi MID21.633%2/119%
Aston Villa crestAston VillaMcGinn MID12.432%9/423%
Aston Villa crestAston VillaN.Jackson FWD52.229%5/223%
Aston Villa crestAston VillaBuendía MID11.625%3/126%
Fulham crestFulhamGonzalo FWD14.028%5/20%
Fulham crestFulhamKing MID21.914%6/130%
Fulham crestFulhamBobb MID11.714%13/20%
Fulham crestFulhamIwobi MID11.411%17/20%

The Fantasy Premier League feed provides each player's goals, minutes, bookings and xG. We combine these details with our expected team goals and the card rate recorded for the referee to estimate each chance. We list only players with at least 75% chance of playing.

The starting elevens for both teams

Aston Villa crestAston Villa 4-2-3-1

  1. Suzuki, Zion.GK
  2. Cash, Matty.DEF
  3. Maatsen, Ian.DEF
  4. Goretzka, Leon.MID
  5. Lindelöf, Victor.DEF
  6. Torres, Pau.DEF
  7. AlyssonMID
  8. Kamara, Boubacar.MID
  9. Jackson, Nicolas.FWD
  10. McGinn, John.MID
  11. Manzambi, Johan.MID

Fulham crestFulham 4-2-3-1

  1. Leno, Bernd.GK
  2. Castagne, Timothy.DEF
  3. Robinson, Antonee.DEF
  4. Charles, Shea.MID
  5. Affengruber, David.DEF
  6. Bassey, Calvin.DEF
  7. Bobb, Oscar.MID
  8. Berge, Sander.MID
  9. García, Gonzalo.FWD
  10. King, Josh.MID
  11. Iwobi, Alex.MID

ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Chances for the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Aston Villa goals down the side and Fulham goals across
012345
07.47.14.51.80.50.1
19.612.77.02.70.80.2
28.09.25.42.10.60.1
34.14.82.81.10.30.1
41.61.81.10.40.10.0
50.50.60.30.10.00.0

Scoring times

321-150116-303531-453246-602261-752376-90

Aston Villa data covers 11 games; Fulham, 12 games. This season's goal times by minute come from ESPN match events.

Corners and card counts

Form from recent matches

Aston Villa crestAston Villa

Aston Villa, last 6
Result
Wed 28 Octat Bournemouth0-3L
Sat 24 Octv Man City2-1W
Sat 17 Octat Newcastle1-0W
Sat 10 Octv Brentford2-2D
Sat 19 Sepat Tottenham3-2W
Wed 16 Sepat Coventry3-1W

Aston Villa appears first in the scores.

Fulham crestFulham

Fulham, last 6
Result
Wed 28 Octv Crystal Palace0-1L
Sat 24 Octat Coventry1-0W
Sat 17 Octv Hull1-0W
Sat 10 Octat Ipswich1-2L
Sun 20 Sepv Man United1-1D
Tue 15 Sepat West Ham3-2W

Fulham appears first in the scores.

Head to head

Sat 25 Apr 2026Premier LeagueFulham 1-0 Aston Villa1-07
Sun 28 Sep 2025Premier LeagueAston Villa 3-1 Fulham1-110
Sat 3 May 2025Premier LeagueAston Villa 1-0 Fulham1-08
Sat 19 Oct 2024Premier LeagueFulham 1-3 Aston Villa1-117

Premier League standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
8AFC Bournemouth crestAFC Bournemouth9333+112
9Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur9333+012
10Aston Villa crestAston Villa9333-312
11Hull City crestHull City9252+111
12Leeds United crestLeeds United9252+111
13Newcastle United crestNewcastle United9324-311
14Ipswich Town crestIpswich Town9324-411
15Fulham crestFulham9234-29
16Coventry City crestCoventry City9306-79
17Manchester United crestManchester United9144-57

The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.

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