Shrewsbury Town vs Gillingham prediction
After removing the margin, the market gives Shrewsbury 48%, draw 27% and Gillingham 25% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
The model's view of the match
Shrewsbury have 18 points from 14 games and sit 15th in the League Two. Gillingham sit 8th with 20 points from 14 games, 2 points ahead.
Over the last 6 games, Shrewsbury took 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 11 scored and 9 conceded. Gillingham's last 6 saw 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 7 scored and 12 against.
Across the season, 46% of Shrewsbury games saw both teams score and 46% went over 2.5 goals; Gillingham's numbers are 54% and 54%. Shrewsbury produce 1.43 expected goals each game and allow 0.98. Gillingham produce 1.10 and allow 1.35.
Since August 2024 our results show 2 meetings: Shrewsbury won 0, Gillingham 1, and 1 ended level. Their most recent meeting, on Saturday 2 May 2026, ended Gillingham 1-0 Shrewsbury.
At 42%, a Shrewsbury win is the outcome the model finds likeliest, ahead of the draw at 28% and Gillingham 30%. It works from expected goals of 1.42 (Shrewsbury) and 1.14 (Gillingham). Take out the margin and the UK bookmakers' figure is 48%, a higher market rating than ours.
Our prediction: Shrewsbury Town 1-0 Gillingham. One exact score stands out as the likeliest, 1-1 at 13.3%; within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Shrewsbury v Gillingham statistics
| Per game |  Shrewsbury |  Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 4.4 | 3.8 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.65 / 1.22 | 0.96 / 1.50 |
| Per game | Shrewsbury | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.23 | 1.38 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 31% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 4.3 | 3.7 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.43 / 0.98 | 1.10 / 1.35 |
| Per game | Shrewsbury | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.7 / 4.5 | 2.5 / 6.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| xG for / against | 1.23 / 0.83 | 1.05 / 1.36 |
| Per game | Shrewsbury | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.0 / 5.5 | 5.5 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | Shrewsbury win | 42% | 11/8 | 10/11 BetVictor | -17.2% |
| Draw | 28% | 5/2 | 5/2 bet365 | -5.3% | |
| Gillingham win | 30% | 9/4 | 3/1 bet365 | +18.8% | |
| Double chance | Shrewsbury or draw | 70% | 4/9 | ||
| Gillingham or draw | 58% | 8/11 | |||
| Draw no bet | Shrewsbury | 59% | 8/11 | ||
| Gillingham | 41% | 11/8 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 10/11 | ||
| No | 48% | 11/10 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | 4/11 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | 21/20 bet365 | -3.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | 8/11 bet365 | -7.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 3/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Shrewsbury and yes | 19% | 9/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Gillingham and yes | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Shrewsbury and over 2.5 | 25% | 3/1 | ||
| Gillingham and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Shrewsbury and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Gillingham and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Shrewsbury / Shrewsbury | 25% | 3/1 | ||
| Gillingham / Gillingham | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Shrewsbury | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 43% | 5/4 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 33% | 2/1 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 56% | 4/5 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 40% | 6/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. The listed bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which covers match odds and both over/under 2.5 markets only. We show edge wherever both numbers are available.
The teams named to start
Shrewsbury 3-4-1-2
- Brook, Will.GK
- Hoole, Luca.MID
- Berkoe, Kevin.MID
- Ruffels, Joshua.DEF
- Boyle, William.DEF
- Stubbs, Sam.DEF
- Sang, Thomas.MID
- Gray, Will.MID
- McMahon-Brown, Kian.MID
- Lloyd, George.FWD
- Davison, Josh.FWD
Gillingham 3-4-3
- Wright, Oliver.GK
- Freeman, Nick.MID
- Mcmanus, Conor.MID
- Dobbs, Logan.DEF
- Beckles, Omar.DEF
- Smith, Andy.DEF
- Brophy, James.MID
- Coleman, Ethan.MID
- Sillah, Lamin.FWD
- Waldock, Harry.FWD
- Hale, Ronan.FWD
The starting elevens come from ESPN, and we read them on Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Games covered: Shrewsbury, 16. Gillingham, 15. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 9.2Shrewsbury 5.1, Gillingham 4.1; the league figure is 9.9
- 4.2yellow cards expected, adjusted for the referee (league 3.7)
Form from recent matches
Shrewsbury Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Rotherham | 3-3 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Crawley Town | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Bristol Rvs | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Exeter | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Grimsby | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Colchester | 2-2 | D |
Scores list Shrewsbury first.
Gillingham
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Grimsby | 1-4 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Port Vale | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Accrington | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Rotherham | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Newport County | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | at York | 0-3 | L |
Scores list Gillingham first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 2 May 2026 | League Two | Gillingham 1-0 Shrewsbury | 0-0 | 7 |
| Sat 29 Nov 2025 | League Two | Shrewsbury 3-3 Gillingham | 3-1 | 10 |
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |  Grimsby Town | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  York City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere Rovers | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 |
ESPN provides the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00