football-tips.uk

Newcastle United vs Everton prediction

Newcastle United crestNewcastle
0-1full time, Mon 2 Nov
EvertonEverton crest
2-1predicted score (8%)
57%both teams score
53%over 2.5 goals
1.41-1.37expected goals

Margin removed, the market has Newcastle 41%, the draw 27% and Everton 32% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).

What the model made of it

In the Premier League, Newcastle sit 13th, taking 11 points from 9 games. Everton sit 7th on 13 points from 9 games, 2 points ahead.

Newcastle's last 6 games brought 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 7 scored and 13 conceded. Everton's last 6 games brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 7 goals for and 7 against.

Across Newcastle games this season, 62% featured both teams scoring and 62% finished above 2.5 goals. Everton's figures this season are 38% and 25%. Expected goals per game: Newcastle 1.14 created, 1.69 allowed; Everton 1.26 created, 1.46 allowed.

Since August 2024 our results show 4 meetings: Newcastle took 1 win, Everton 2, with 1 ending level. Most recently, on Saturday 28 February 2026, the game ended Newcastle 2-3 Everton.

In the model, a Newcastle win is the likeliest outcome at 38%, with the draw on 27% and Everton 36%, using expected goals (1.41 for Newcastle, 1.37 for Everton). UK bookmakers put it at 41% once their margin is removed, which is a higher market rating than we give it.

We predict a score of Newcastle United 2-1 Everton. At 12.7%, 1-1 is the likeliest single exact score; within the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest.

Stats for Newcastle v Everton

Per gameNewcastle United crestNewcastleEverton crestEverton
Games55
Goals scored a game1.201.20
Goals conceded a game1.801.40
Both teams scored60%40%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%
Clean sheets20%20%
Corners won / conceded4.5 / 5.24.5 / 7.5
Yellow cards a game2.82.0
xG for / against1.31 / 1.541.24 / 1.55

Best UK odds and fair prices

Match resultNewcastle win38%13/85/4 bet365-13.7%
Draw27%11/411/4 Betway-0.8%
Everton win36%7/42/1 bet365+6.9%
Double chanceNewcastle or draw64%4/7
Everton or draw62%8/13
Draw no betNewcastle51%10/11
Everton49%21/20
Both teams to scoreYes57%8/11
No43%11/8
GoalsOver 1.577%3/10
Over 2.553%10/114/6 bet365-12.2%
Under 2.547%11/106/5 bet365+4.4%
Over 3.530%9/4
Result and BTTSNewcastle and yes19%9/2
Draw and yes20%4/1
Everton and yes18%9/2
Result and goalsNewcastle and over 2.523%10/3
Everton and over 2.522%7/2
Newcastle and under 2.514%6/1
Everton and under 2.514%13/2
Half time / full timeNewcastle / Newcastle22%7/2
Everton / Everton21%7/2
Draw / Draw15%11/2
Draw / Newcastle13%13/2
CornersOver 9.548%21/20
Over 10.538%13/8
CardsOver 3.572%2/5
Over 4.557%4/5

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk. It carries two things only: match odds and over/under 2.5. Edge appears where we have both figures.

Chances for goalscorers and cards

Newcastle United crestNewcastleWissa FWD13.444%5/440%
Newcastle United crestNewcastleElanga MID20.821%4/127%
Newcastle United crestNewcastleWillock MID21.320%4/10%
Newcastle United crestNewcastleBarnes MID21.519%9/20%
Everton crestEvertonBarry FWD46.451%evens0%
Everton crestEvertonJohnson MID01.119%4/139%
Everton crestEvertonDewsbury-Hall MID21.616%5/113%
Everton crestEvertonArmstrong MID00.89%11/134%

The Fantasy Premier League feed supplies player goals, xG, minutes and bookings. Our chances combine those figures with the goal expectation for the team and the referee's card rate. We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.

Who starts for each side

Newcastle United crestNewcastle 4-2-3-1

  1. Hornícek, Lukás.GK
  2. Dedic, Amar.DEF
  3. Hall, Lewis.DEF
  4. González, Nico.MID
  5. Schär, Fabian.DEF
  6. Burn, Dan.DEF
  7. Anthony ElangaMID
  8. JoelintonMID
  9. Osula, William.FWD
  10. Willock, Joe.MID
  11. Barnes, Harvey.MID

Everton crestEverton 4-2-3-1

  1. Pickford, Jordan.GK
  2. O'Brien, Jake.DEF
  3. Mykolenko, Vitaliy.DEF
  4. Garner, James.MID
  5. Tarkowski, James.DEF
  6. Branthwaite, Jarrad.DEF
  7. Röhl, Merlin.MID
  8. Armstrong, Harrison.MID
  9. Barry, Thierno.FWD
  10. Dewsbury-Hall, Kiernan.MID
  11. George, Tyrique.MID

ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Chances for correct scores

For each score, the chance in %, with Newcastle goals down the side and Everton goals across
012345
06.97.85.82.70.90.2
18.012.78.23.71.30.4
26.28.55.82.60.90.2
32.94.02.71.20.40.1
41.01.41.00.40.10.0
50.30.40.30.10.00.0

When the goals come

311-150116-302331-454446-603461-755476-90

Newcastle, 12 games and Everton, 12 games. Goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events this season.

Cards and corners

Latest form

Newcastle United crestNewcastle United

Newcastle's last 6
Result
Thu 29 Octat Everton1-3L
Sun 25 Octat Crystal Palace2-0W
Sat 17 Octv Aston Villa0-1L
Mon 12 Octat Coventry1-4L
Sat 19 Sepv Hull2-1W
Mon 14 Sepat Leeds1-4L

Read the Newcastle score first.

Everton crestEverton

Everton's last 6
Result
Thu 29 Octv Newcastle3-1W
Sat 24 Octat Arsenal0-2L
Sat 17 Octv Chelsea0-2L
Sun 11 Octat Hull2-2D
Sat 19 Sepv Ipswich1-0W
Wed 16 Sepv Wolves1-0W

Read the Everton score first.

Head to head

Sat 28 Feb 2026Premier LeagueNewcastle 2-3 Everton1-29
Sat 29 Nov 2025Premier LeagueEverton 1-4 Newcastle0-315
Sun 25 May 2025Premier LeagueNewcastle 0-1 Everton0-015
Sat 5 Oct 2024Premier LeagueEverton 0-0 Newcastle0-010

Premier League standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
5Liverpool crestLiverpool9432+215
6Brentford crestBrentford9351+714
7Everton crestEverton9342+013
8AFC Bournemouth crestAFC Bournemouth9333+112
9Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur9333+012
10Aston Villa crestAston Villa9333-312
11Hull City crestHull City9252+111
12Leeds United crestLeeds United9252+111
13Newcastle United crestNewcastle United9324-311
14Ipswich Town crestIpswich Town9324-411
15Fulham crestFulham9234-29

The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.

Other Premier League predictions