Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction
Strip out the margin and the market reads Chelsea 52%, draw 24%, Man Utd 24% (an average of 6 UK bookmakers).
The model's view of the match
Chelsea, 4th in the Premier League, have 16 points from 9 games. Man Utd sit 17th on 7 points from 9 games, 9 points behind.
Chelsea's last 6 games brought 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 10 goals scored and 9 conceded. Across their last 6 matches, Man Utd recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, with 5 goals for and 10 against.
Both teams scored in 62% of Chelsea's games this season, and 75% of them went over 2.5 goals; the Man Utd figures are 62% and 38%. Chelsea's expected goals sit at 1.23 a game and 1.42 allowed; Man Utd's are 1.57 and 1.49.
Since August 2024 our results show 4 meetings: 1 Chelsea win, 2 for Man Utd and 1 draw. The most recent meeting, on Saturday 18 April 2026, ended Chelsea 0-1 Man United.
Four regular starters this season are expected to be out for Chelsea: Martinez, James, Hato and João Pedro.
Martinez and Shaw, regular starters this season, are expected to be missing for Man Utd.
The model rates a Chelsea win the likeliest outcome at 47% (draw 24%, Man Utd 30%). Its expected goals put Chelsea at 1.87 and Man Utd at 1.46. With margin removed, UK bookmakers have this at 52%, which is higher than our own rating.
Our prediction is Chelsea 2-1 Manchester United. One exact score stands out as likeliest, 1-1 at 10.4%; within the result we lean to, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Chelsea v Man Utd: the stats
| Per game |  Chelsea |  Man Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 5.5 | 6.2 / 3.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| xG for / against | 0.97 / 1.30 | 1.12 / 1.70 |
| Per game | Chelsea | Man Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.12 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.88 | 1.62 |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 5.5 | 6.0 / 3.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.23 / 1.42 | 1.57 / 1.49 |
| Per game | Chelsea | Man Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 6.0 | 6.2 / 2.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.35 / 1.23 | 1.26 / 1.26 |
| Per game | Chelsea | Man Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.8 / 3.0 | 3.0 / 6.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 4.0 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | Chelsea win | 47% | 11/10 | 5/6 bet365 | -14.7% |
| Draw | 24% | 10/3 | 3/1 Betfred | -5.5% | |
| Man Utd win | 30% | 9/4 | 3/1 bet365 | +22.0% | |
| Double chance | Chelsea or draw | 70% | 4/9 | ||
| Man Utd or draw | 53% | 10/11 | |||
| Draw no bet | Chelsea | 61% | 8/13 | ||
| Man Utd | 39% | 13/8 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 8/15 | ||
| No | 34% | 15/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 85% | 2/11 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 8/15 | 4/7 bet365 | +1.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 15/8 | 11/8 bet365 | -15.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 11/8 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Chelsea and yes | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Man Utd and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Chelsea and over 2.5 | 34% | 15/8 | ||
| Man Utd and over 2.5 | 21% | 7/2 | |||
| Chelsea and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Man Utd and under 2.5 | 8% | 11/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Chelsea / Chelsea | 29% | 5/2 | ||
| Man Utd / Man Utd | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Chelsea | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 49% | 21/20 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 63% | 4/7 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 47% | 6/5 |
Fair price = 1 divided by the chance we give. We source our bookmaker prices through football-data.co.uk, which lists only match odds and over/under 2.5. Edge shows the edge wherever we have both numbers.
Scorer and card chances
| Chelsea | Rogers MID | 5 | 2.8 | 32% | 9/4 | 29% |
| Chelsea | Palmer MID | 3 | 2.5 | 29% | 5/2 | 21% |
| Chelsea | Neto MID | 3 | 1.8 | 24% | 3/1 | 23% |
| Chelsea | Lavia MID | 1 | 0.8 | 17% | 5/1 | 19% |
| Man Utd | Mbeumo MID | 4 | 4.2 | 35% | 15/8 | 21% |
| Man Utd | B.Fernandes MID | 3 | 3.0 | 29% | 5/2 | 23% |
| Man Utd | Rashford MID | 0 | 0.8 | 16% | 5/1 | 0% |
| Man Utd | Cunha MID | 1 | 1.4 | 16% | 5/1 | 0% |
The Fantasy Premier League feed provides goals, xG, minutes and bookings for each player. Our chances combine these figures with our team goal expectation and include the referee's card rate. We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.
Starting elevens
Chelsea 4-2-3-1
- Penders, Mike.GK
- Acheampong, Josh.DEF
- Palestra, Marco.DEF
- Caicedo, Moisés.MID
- Fofana, Wesley.DEF
- Colwill, Levi.DEF
- EstêvãoMID
- Lavia, Romeo.MID
- The player is Pedro Neto.FWD
- The player is Cole Palmer.MID
- The player is Morgan Rogers.MID
Formation: Man Utd 4-2-3-1
- The player is Senne Lammens.GK
- The player is Leny Yoro.DEF
- The player is Diogo Dalot.DEF
- The player is Andrey Santos.MID
- The player is Harry Maguire.DEF
- The player is Lisandro Martínez.DEF
- The player is Amad Diallo.MID
- The player is Carlos Baleba.MID
- The player is Bryan Mbeumo.FWD
- The player is Bruno Fernandes.MID
- The player is Matheus Cunha.MID
ESPN gave us the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
We have Chelsea, 12 games and Man Utd, 10 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 10.7 overall, with Chelsea 5.4 and Man Utd 5.3 (league 9.9).
- Yellow cards expected: 4.6 (league 3.8, referee adjusted).
Latest form
Chelsea
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | at Liverpool | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Tottenham | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Everton | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Bournemouth | 5-1 | W |
| Fri 18 Sep | at Brentford | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Hull | 2-2 | D |
Chelsea is listed first in the scores.
Manchester United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct | v Bournemouth | 0-3 | L |
| Sun 18 Oct | at Leeds | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Tottenham | 1-1 | D |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Fulham | 1-1 | D |
| Wed 16 Sep | v Brighton | 2-3 | L |
| Sun 13 Sep | v Man City | 0-1 | L |
Man Utd is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Sat 18 Apr 2026 | Premier League | Chelsea 0-1 Man United | 0-1 | 8 |
| Sat 20 Sep 2025 | Premier League | Man United 2-1 Chelsea | 2-0 | 10 |
| Fri 16 May 2025 | Premier League | Chelsea 1-0 Man United | 0-0 | 9 |
| Sun 3 Nov 2024 | Premier League | Man United 1-1 Chelsea | 0-0 | 12 |
The Premier League table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry City | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
ESPN supplied the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.