Swindon Town vs Grimsby Town prediction
Our breakdown
Swindon sit in 13th place within League Two, earning 19 points over 14 games. Grimsby hold 6th place with 20 points from 14 matches, putting them 1 ahead.
Swindon's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 scored and 5 conceded. Across their last 6 matches, Grimsby recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, scoring 12 goals and conceding 10.
In 50% of Swindon matches this season, both teams scored, and 50% had more than 2.5 goals. Grimsby's figures are 57% and 57%. Swindon's expected goals per game are 1.26, with 1.62 allowed; Grimsby's are 2.02, with 1.24 allowed.
Our results show 4 meetings since August 2024. Swindon recorded 2 wins, Grimsby took 1 win, and 1 match ended level. The most recent meeting, held on Saturday 25 April 2026, ended with Grimsby 4-0 Swindon.
At 38%, a Grimsby win is the most likely outcome in our model (Swindon 37%, the draw 25%), based on 1.55 expected goals for Swindon and 1.56 for Grimsby.
Our call on the score is Swindon Town 1-2 Grimsby Town. Among all exact scores, 1-1 is highest at 11.4%; 1-2 leads the scores for the result we favor.
Stats: Swindon v Grimsby
| Per game |  Swindon |  Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 5.6 | 5.6 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.35 / 1.72 | 2.29 / 1.61 |
| Per game | Swindon | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.07 | 1.71 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 7.4 | 6.5 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.26 / 1.62 | 2.02 / 1.24 |
| Per game | Swindon | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 4.9 | 6.4 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.62 / 1.15 | 1.62 / 1.60 |
| Per game | Swindon | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.25 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.2 | 5.2 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Swindon win | 37% | 7/4 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Grimsby win | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Double chance | Swindon or draw | 62% | 8/13 |
| Grimsby or draw | 63% | 4/7 | |
| Draw no bet | Swindon | 50% | evens |
| Grimsby | 50% | evens | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 4/7 |
| No | 37% | 7/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | 2/9 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 4/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Swindon and yes | 21% | 7/2 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Grimsby and yes | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Result and goals | Swindon and over 2.5 | 26% | 3/1 |
| Grimsby and over 2.5 | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Swindon and under 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Grimsby and under 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Grimsby / Grimsby | 23% | 10/3 |
| Swindon / Swindon | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Draw / Grimsby | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 69% | 4/9 |
| Over 10.5 | 59% | 4/6 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
| Over 4.5 | 19% | 9/2 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed hasn't got the UK bookmaker prices for this match yet. football-data.co.uk normally publishes them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Team line-ups we predict
Swindon 3-4-2-1
- Ripley, Connor.GK
- Clark, Mitchell.MID
- Butler, Dan.MID
- Kirkman, Billy.DEF
- Negru, Stephan.DEF
- Ball, James.DEF
- Thomson, Shaun.MID
- Virtue-Thick, Matthew.MID
- Drinan, Aaron.FWD
- Nichols, Tom.FWD
- Snowdon, Joseph.FWD
Those starters lined up against Rotherham on Sat 31 Oct.
Grimsby 3-4-1-2
- Pym, Christy.GK
- Foulkes, Joe.MID
- Vernam, Charles.MID
- McJannett, Cameron.DEF
- Kacurri, Maldini.DEF
- Rodgers, Harvey.DEF
- Dávid Turi, Géza.MID
- Walker, Jamie.MID
- Green, Kieran.MID
- Morgan, Iwan.FWD
- Cook, Andy.FWD
They started Sat 31 Oct v York City.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who began their most recent match. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, they replace these about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring by minute
Grimsby, 15 games; Swindon, 15 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 11.6 overall, with the league at 9.9, Swindon 4.9 and Grimsby 6.7.
- Yellow cards expected: 2.9 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Swindon Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Rotherham | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Bristol Rvs | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Barnet | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Walsall | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Crewe | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Rochdale | 0-1 | L |
The score shows Swindon first.
Grimsby Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v York | 5-2 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Gillingham | 4-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Rochdale | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Northampton | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Port Vale | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Shrewsbury | 1-2 | L |
The score lists Grimsby first.
Head to head
| Sat 25 Apr 2026 | League Two | Grimsby 4-0 Swindon | 3-0 | 14 |
| Sat 22 Nov 2025 | League Two | Swindon 2-2 Grimsby | 2-2 | 14 |
| Fri 18 Apr 2025 | League Two | Grimsby 0-4 Swindon | 0-2 | 3 |
| Sat 21 Dec 2024 | League Two | Swindon 3-1 Grimsby | 2-0 | 9 |
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |  Crewe Alexandra | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby Town | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  York City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere Rovers | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 |
The table comes from ESPN and is as of Wednesday 4 November.
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00