Newport County vs Swindon Town prediction
The analysis we've done
With 18 points from 14 games, Newport are 14th in the League Two. Swindon are 13th on 19 from 14, ahead by 1 point.
In their last 6 matches Newport took 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, with 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. Swindon took 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 6, scoring 6 goals and conceding 5.
So far this season, 57% of Newport matches saw both teams score, and 50% finished with more than 2.5 goals. Swindon's figures were 50% and 50%. Expected goals per game: Newport 1.10 created, 1.20 allowed; Swindon 1.26 created, 1.62 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results list 4 meetings. Newport recorded 0 wins, Swindon 4, and 0 draws. Wednesday 11 February 2026 saw Swindon 2-0 Newport County in their latest meeting.
The model places Swindon at 41% for the most likely result, with Newport 33% and 27% for the draw. Expected goals are 1.32 for Newport and 1.49 for Swindon.
The predicted score is Newport County 1-2 Swindon Town. One exact score stands out as the likeliest, 1-1 at 12.6%; inside the result we lean to, 1-2 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Newport v Swindon
| Per game |  Newport |  Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 2.2 | 4.2 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.40 / 1.14 | 1.35 / 1.72 |
| Per game | Newport | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 4.2 | 4.2 / 7.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.10 / 1.20 | 1.26 / 1.62 |
| Per game | Newport | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 0.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 3.7 | 3.1 / 9.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 0.90 | 0.90 / 2.08 |
| Per game | Newport | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.25 | 0.25 |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 75% |
| Corners won / conceded | 2.2 / 6.2 | 6.2 / 2.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Newport win | 33% | 2/1 |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Swindon win | 41% | 6/4 | |
| Double chance | Newport or draw | 59% | 4/6 |
| Swindon or draw | 67% | 1/2 | |
| Draw no bet | Newport | 45% | 5/4 |
| Swindon | 55% | 4/5 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 8/11 |
| No | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Newport and yes | 17% | 5/1 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Swindon and yes | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Result and goals | Newport and over 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 |
| Swindon and over 2.5 | 26% | 29/10 | |
| Newport and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Swindon and under 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Swindon / Swindon | 24% | 3/1 |
| Newport / Newport | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Draw / Swindon | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 59% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 48% | 11/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 40% | 6/4 |
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 3/1 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance.
Line-ups we predict
Newport 4-2-3-1
- Wright, Jordan.GK
- Cameron NormanDEF
- Davies, Tom.DEF
- Brennan, Ciaran.MID
- Jenkins, Lee.DEF
- Cameron, Kyle.DEF
- Adu-Poku, Michael.MID
- Smith, Matt.MID
- Etete, Kion.FWD
- Biggins, Harrison.MID
- Bamba, Yahya.MID
They started against Chesterfield on Fri 30 Oct.
Swindon 3-4-2-1
- Ripley, Connor.GK
- Clark, Mitchell.MID
- Butler, Dan.MID
- Kirkman, Billy.DEF
- Negru, Stephan.DEF
- Ball, James.DEF
- Thomson, Shaun.MID
- Virtue-Thick, Matthew.MID
- Drinan, Aaron.FWD
- Nichols, Tom.FWD
- Snowdon, Joseph.FWD
They started against Rotherham on Sat 31 Oct.
Exact score chances
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Newport have played 15 games. Swindon, 15 games.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners are 10.6, with Newport 6.2 and Swindon 4.4 against a league 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.3 (league 3.7).
Form guide
Newport County
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | v Chesterfield | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Cheltenham | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Rotherham | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v York | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Colchester | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Gillingham | 0-0 | D |
Read Newport's score first.
Swindon Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Rotherham | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Bristol Rvs | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Barnet | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Walsall | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Crewe | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Rochdale | 0-1 | L |
Read Swindon's score first.
Head to head
| Wed 11 Feb 2026 | League Two | Swindon 2-0 Newport County | 0-0 | 9 |
| Sat 4 Oct 2025 | League Two | Newport County 0-1 Swindon | 0-1 | 11 |
| Fri 24 Jan 2025 | League Two | Newport County 1-2 Swindon | 1-1 | 10 |
| Sat 14 Sep 2024 | League Two | Swindon 4-0 Newport County | 4-0 | 4 |
Standings for League Two
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |  Tranmere Rovers | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 17 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November
Further League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00