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Newport County vs Chesterfield prediction

Newport County crestNewport
4-1full time, Fri 30 Oct
ChesterfieldChesterfield crest
1-2predicted score (9%)
56%both teams score
53%over 2.5 goals
1.20-1.58expected goals

An average across 6 UK bookmakers, with the margin removed, gives Newport 23%, draw 25% and Chesterfield 51%.

The model view

Newport's 18 points from 14 games leave them 14th in League Two. In 10th place, Chesterfield have 19 from 14 and sit 1 point ahead.

Across their last 6 matches, Newport took 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, with 6 scored and 5 conceded. Chesterfield's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, plus 13 goals for and 9 against

In Newport matches this season, both teams scored in 54% and 46% went past 2.5 goals, while Chesterfield's numbers are 69% and 54% Newport create 1.09 expected goals a game and allow 1.19, while Chesterfield's figures are 1.74 created and 1.00 allowed.

Our results list 4 meetings since August 2024. Newport won 1 and Chesterfield won 3, with 0 draws. Their most recent meeting, Saturday 24 January 2026, finished Newport County 2-1 Chesterfield.

Expected goals stand at 1.20 for Newport and at 1.58 for Chesterfield. On those figures, the model rates a Chesterfield win at 46%, Newport 28% and the draw 26%. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers have it at 51%, and the market sees it as likelier than our model does.

We predict Newport County 1-2 Chesterfield as the score. At 12.5%, 1-1 is the single likeliest exact score; within the result we lean to, 1-2 is the likeliest score.

Newport v Chesterfield statistics

Per gameNewport County crestNewportChesterfield crestChesterfield
Games55
Goals scored a game0.802.40
Goals conceded a game0.801.40
Both teams scored40%80%
Over 2.5 goals20%60%
Clean sheets40%0%
Corners won / conceded4.0 / 2.07.6 / 1.6
Yellow cards a game1.82.4
xG for / against1.40 / 0.931.66 / 0.85

UK odds and fair prices

Match resultNewport win28%5/210/3 BetVictor+18.0%
Draw26%11/411/4 Sky Bet-0.2%
Chesterfield win46%6/510/11 Betway-13.3%
Double chanceNewport or draw54%5/6
Chesterfield or draw72%2/5
Draw no betNewport38%13/8
Chesterfield62%8/13
Both teams to scoreYes56%4/5
No44%5/4
GoalsOver 1.577%3/10
Over 2.553%10/115/6 bet365-3.9%
Under 2.547%11/1021/20 bet365-3.7%
Over 3.530%9/4
Result and BTTSNewport and yes14%6/1
Draw and yes19%4/1
Chesterfield and yes22%7/2
Result and goalsNewport and over 2.517%5/1
Chesterfield and over 2.529%5/2
Newport and under 2.511%8/1
Chesterfield and under 2.517%5/1
Half time / full timeChesterfield / Chesterfield28%5/2
Newport / Newport16%5/1
Draw / Chesterfield16%11/2
Draw / Draw15%6/1
CornersOver 9.543%11/8
Over 10.532%2/1
CardsOver 3.569%4/9
Over 4.553%10/11

Divide 1 by our chance to get the fair price. Bookmaker prices here come from football-data.co.uk, which lists match odds and over/under 2.5 and nothing else. Edge marks the spots where both numbers appear.

Who starts for each side

Newport County crestNewport 4-2-3-1

  1. Wright, Jordan.GK
  2. Cameron NormanDEF
  3. Davies, Tom.DEF
  4. Brennan, Ciaran.MID
  5. Jenkins, Lee.DEF
  6. Cameron, Kyle.DEF
  7. Adu-Poku, Michael.MID
  8. Smith, Matt.MID
  9. Etete, Kion.FWD
  10. Biggins, Harrison.MID
  11. Bamba, Yahya.MID

Chesterfield crestChesterfield 4-2-3-1

  1. Hemming, Zachary.GK
  2. Hutton, Remeao.DEF
  3. Pearce, Tom.DEF
  4. McEachran, George.MID
  5. Pond, Alfie.DEF
  6. Simpson, Jack.DEF
  7. Kumar Markanday, Dilan.MID
  8. Naylor, Tom.MID
  9. Bryden, Fraser.FWD
  10. Mandeville, Liam.MID
  11. Koroma, Josh.MID

The starting elevens come from ESPN and were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.

Exact score chances

Each score's chance in %, with Newport goals down the side and Chesterfield goals across
012345
06.99.17.84.11.60.5
16.712.59.34.91.90.6
24.47.05.62.91.20.4
31.82.82.21.20.50.1
40.50.80.70.30.10.0
50.10.20.20.10.00.0

Scoring times

341-154516-302231-454646-604161-754676-90

Newport, 15 games in all. Chesterfield, 15 games. This season's scoring minutes come from ESPN match events.

Cards and corners

Form from recent matches

Newport County crestNewport County

Newport's last 6
Result
Sat 24 Octat Cheltenham0-1L
Tue 20 Octat Rotherham2-2D
Sat 17 Octv York1-1D
Sat 10 Octv Colchester1-0W
Sat 3 Octat Gillingham0-0D
Sat 26 Sepv Grimsby2-1W

Newport comes first in the scores.

Chesterfield crestChesterfield

Chesterfield's last 6
Result
Sat 24 Octv Crewe5-1W
Tue 20 Octv Colchester1-1D
Sat 17 Octat Port Vale0-1L
Sat 10 Octat Crawley Town2-2D
Sat 3 Octv Tranmere4-2W
Sat 26 Sepat Cheltenham1-2L

Chesterfield comes first in the scores.

Head to head

Sat 24 Jan 2026League TwoNewport County 2-1 Chesterfield0-010
Sat 27 Sep 2025League TwoChesterfield 4-1 Newport County2-07
Sat 8 Mar 2025League TwoChesterfield 2-1 Newport County2-112
Fri 18 Oct 2024League TwoNewport County 0-3 Chesterfield0-113

League Two standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
8Gillingham crestGillingham14554+120
9Accrington Stanley crestAccrington Stanley14473+619
10Chesterfield crestChesterfield14545+319
11Tranmere Rovers crestTranmere Rovers14473+219
12Exeter City crestExeter City14545+219
13Swindon Town crestSwindon Town14545-219
14Newport County crestNewport County14464+318
15Shrewsbury Town crestShrewsbury Town14536-518
16Fleetwood Town crestFleetwood Town14455+017

ESPN supplied the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.

Other League Two predictions