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Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction

Newcastle United crestNewcastle
17:30Saturday 21 November
ArsenalArsenal crest
0-1predicted score (11%)
51%both teams score
50%over 2.5 goals
0.95-1.74expected goals

Analysis from us

In the Premier League, Newcastle sit 13th, earning 11 points across 9 games. Top of the table with 24 points from 9 games, Arsenal sit 1st, 13 points clear.

Their last 6 games brought Newcastle 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, 6 goals scored and 10 conceded. In Arsenal's last 6 they won 4, drew 1 and lost 1, scoring 7 and conceding 5.

So far this season, 56% of Newcastle matches featured goals from both sides, and 56% had more than 2.5 goals. Arsenal's rates are 22% and 44%, respectively. Newcastle's expected goals per game are 1.17 created and 1.74 allowed; Arsenal's are 1.65 created and 0.80 allowed.

Our results include 4 meetings since August 2024, with 1 Newcastle win, 3 Arsenal wins and 0 draws. On Saturday 25 April 2026, the latest meeting ended Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle.

Saka, a regular starter this season, is expected to be unavailable for Arsenal.

Expected goals stand at 0.95 for Newcastle and 1.74 for Arsenal, and from those figures the model rates an Arsenal win at 55%, Newcastle 20% and the draw 25%.

Newcastle United 0-1 Arsenal is our predicted score. At 11.9%, 1-1 is the single likeliest exact score. Within the result we lean to, 0-1 ranks first.

Stats for Newcastle v Arsenal

Per gameNewcastle United crestNewcastleArsenal crestArsenal
Games55
Goals scored a game0.801.40
Goals conceded a game1.800.40
Both teams scored40%40%
Over 2.5 goals40%20%
Clean sheets20%60%
Corners won / conceded4.5 / 4.86.0 / 5.5
Yellow cards a game3.81.8
xG for / against1.31 / 1.691.60 / 0.80

Fair prices for each market

Match resultNewcastle win20%4/1
Draw25%3/1
Arsenal win55%4/5
Double chanceNewcastle or draw45%5/4
Arsenal or draw80%1/4
Draw no betNewcastle26%14/5
Arsenal74%4/11
Both teams to scoreYes51%10/11
No49%21/20
GoalsOver 1.576%1/3
Over 2.550%evens
Under 2.550%evens
Over 3.528%5/2
Result and BTTSNewcastle and yes10%9/1
Draw and yes17%9/2
Arsenal and yes24%16/5
Result and goalsNewcastle and over 2.511%8/1
Arsenal and over 2.534%2/1
Newcastle and under 2.59%10/1
Arsenal and under 2.521%18/5
Half time / full timeArsenal / Arsenal35%15/8
Draw / Arsenal18%9/2
Draw / Draw15%6/1
Newcastle / Newcastle11%8/1
CornersOver 9.544%5/4
Over 10.534%2/1
CardsOver 3.561%4/6
Over 4.544%5/4

Divide 1 by our chance to work out the fair price.

Chances for goalscorers and cards

Newcastle United crestNewcastleWissa FWD13.432%21/1034%
Newcastle United crestNewcastleElanga MID20.815%6/122%
Newcastle United crestNewcastleWillock MID21.314%6/10%
Newcastle United crestNewcastleBarnes MID21.513%13/20%
Arsenal crestArsenalHavertz FWD32.831%9/412%
Arsenal crestArsenalØdegaard MID22.222%7/211%
Arsenal crestArsenalGabriel DEF11.516%11/220%
Arsenal crestArsenalCalafiori DEF11.215%6/10%

We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.

Line-ups we predict

Newcastle United crestNewcastle 4-4-2

  1. HorníčekGK · 9 starts
  2. HallDEF · 9 starts
  3. ThiawDEF · 7 starts
  4. BotmanDEF · 7 starts
  5. DedićDEF · 6 starts
  6. BarnesMID · 9 starts
  7. L.MileyMID · 7 starts, 75% to play
  8. WillockMID · 7 starts
  9. N.GonzalezMID · 7 starts
  10. WissaFWD · 7 starts
  11. Fernandez-PardoFWD · 4 starts, 75% to play

Arsenal crestArsenal 4-2-3-1

  1. RayaGK · 9 starts
  2. GabrielDEF · 9 starts
  3. CalafioriDEF · 8 starts
  4. KonsaDEF · 7 starts
  5. WhiteDEF · 7 starts
  6. RiceMID · 9 starts
  7. ØdegaardMID · 9 starts
  8. TzolisMID · 6 starts
  9. Lewis-SkellyMID · 6 starts
  10. MaduekeMID · 3 starts
  11. HavertzFWD · 8 starts

Saka (Thigh injury) is out or doubtful.

Chances for the correct score

For each score, the chance in %, with Newcastle goals down the side and Arsenal goals across
012345
07.511.110.36.02.60.9
15.811.99.85.72.50.9
23.15.34.62.71.20.4
31.01.71.50.90.40.1
40.20.40.30.20.10.0
50.00.10.10.00.00.0

When each team scores

331-150416-302031-454746-603361-755276-90

Games: Newcastle, 12; Arsenal, 11.

Cards and corners

Latest form

Newcastle United crestNewcastle United

Newcastle's last 6
Result
Mon 2 Novv Everton0-1L
Thu 29 Octat Everton1-3L
Sun 25 Octat Crystal Palace2-0W
Sat 17 Octv Aston Villa0-1L
Mon 12 Octat Coventry1-4L
Sat 19 Sepv Hull2-1W

The scores read Newcastle first.

Arsenal crestArsenal

Arsenal's last 6
Result
Sun 1 Novat Liverpool1-0W
Tue 27 Octat Fleetwood Town1-1D
Sat 24 Octv Everton2-0W
Sun 18 Octat Nott'm Forest1-0W
Sat 10 Octv Leeds2-1W
Sat 19 Sepat Brighton0-3L

The scores read Arsenal first.

Head to head

Sat 25 Apr 2026Premier LeagueArsenal 1-0 Newcastle1-09
Sun 28 Sep 2025Premier LeagueNewcastle 1-2 Arsenal1-019
Sun 18 May 2025Premier LeagueArsenal 1-0 Newcastle0-017
Sat 2 Nov 2024Premier LeagueNewcastle 1-0 Arsenal1-010

Premier League standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal crestArsenal9801+924
2Manchester City crestManchester City9702+1021
3Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton & Hove Albion9612+1719
11Hull City crestHull City9252+111
12Leeds United crestLeeds United9252+111
13Newcastle United crestNewcastle United9324-311
14Ipswich Town crestIpswich Town9324-411
15Fulham crestFulham9234-29

Standings updated Thursday 5 November

Other Premier League predictions