Coventry City vs Sunderland prediction

Coventry

3-1full time, Sat 31 Oct

Sunderland

Premier League
Ground: Coventry Building Society Arena
Match referee: S Hooper, 4.4 total cards a game in 45
UK TV: no live coverage (Saturday blackout)

Coventry scorers: Tatsuhiro Sakamoto 17', Taiwo Awoniyi 37', Jack Rudoni 52'
Sunderland scorer: Enzo Le Fée 67'

2-1predicted score (9%)

57%both teams score

52%over 2.5 goals

1.47-1.29expected goals

41%27%32%

With the margin taken out, the market has Coventry 30%, draw 28% and Sunderland 41% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).

What the model made of it

In the Premier League, Coventry sit 16th on 9 points from 9 games played. Sunderland sit 20th on 5 points from 9 matches, 4 points behind.

Coventry's last 6 games brought 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 7 scored and 13 conceded. From their last 6, Sunderland took 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 13.

Both teams scored in 25% of Coventry matches this season, and 50% of games went over 2.5 goals. Sunderland's figures are 38% and 25%. Coventry's expected goals are 0.95 per game, with 1.49 allowed. Sunderland sit at 1.42 created and 1.88 allowed.

Our results cover 2 meetings since August 2024, with Coventry at 1 win, Sunderland at 0 and 1 ending level. The most recent meeting, Saturday 15 March 2025, finished Coventry 3-0 Sunderland.

Ballard, a regular starter this season, is expected to be missing for Sunderland.

The model expects 1.47 goals for Coventry and 1.29 for Sunderland, so its likeliest result is a Coventry win at 41%, with the draw 27% and Sunderland 32%. With the margin removed, UK bookmakers put it at 30%, so our rating sits above the market.

The predicted score reads Coventry City 2-1 Sunderland. For exact scores, 1-1 stands highest at 12.7%. Within the result we favor, 2-1 is the most likely score.

Stats for Coventry v Sunderland

Per game	Coventry	Sunderland
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.40	1.20
Goals conceded a game	1.60	2.20
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	40%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Corners won / conceded	3.0 / 5.5	4.8 / 5.2
Yellow cards a game	1.0	1.2
xG for / against	0.86 / 1.09	1.30 / 2.31

Per game	Coventry	Sunderland
Games	8	8
Goals scored a game	0.75	0.75
Goals conceded a game	1.88	1.75
Both teams scored	25%	38%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	25%
Clean sheets	12%	25%
Corners won / conceded	3.8 / 4.9	4.2 / 4.2
Yellow cards a game	1.1	2.1
xG for / against	0.95 / 1.49	1.42 / 1.88

Per game	Coventry	Sunderland
Games	4	4
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.25
Goals conceded a game	2.00	2.50
Both teams scored	25%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Corners won / conceded	4.2 / 4.2	4.0 / 4.5
Yellow cards a game	0.8	2.2
xG for / against	1.14 / 1.48	1.50 / 2.51

Per game	Coventry	Sunderland
Games	2	2
Goals scored a game	2.50	1.00
Goals conceded a game	1.00	2.50
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	100%	100%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Corners won / conceded	6.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 6.5
Yellow cards a game	2.5	2.5

Fair prices and the best UK odds


Match result	Coventry win	41%	6/4	9/4 bet365	+30.6%
	Draw	27%	11/4	5/2 Betfred	-6.2%
	Sunderland win	32%	2/1	5/4 Betfred	-25.5%
Double chance	Coventry or draw	68%	1/2
	Sunderland or draw	59%	4/6
Draw no bet	Coventry	56%	4/5
	Sunderland	44%	5/4
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	4/5
	No	43%	5/4
Goals	Over 1.5	77%	3/10
	Over 2.5	52%	10/11	evens bet365	+3.2%
	Under 2.5	48%	11/10	10/11 bet365	-10.0%
	Over 3.5	30%	9/4
Result and BTTS	Coventry and yes	20%	4/1
	Draw and yes	20%	4/1
	Sunderland and yes	17%	5/1
Result and goals	Coventry and over 2.5	25%	3/1
	Sunderland and over 2.5	20%	4/1
	Coventry and under 2.5	15%	11/2
	Sunderland and under 2.5	13%	7/1
Half time / full time	Coventry / Coventry	25%	3/1
	Sunderland / Sunderland	19%	9/2
	Draw / Draw	15%	11/2
	Draw / Coventry	14%	6/1
Corners	Over 9.5	41%	11/8
	Over 10.5	31%	9/4
Cards	Over 3.5	52%	10/11
	Over 4.5	35%	15/8

Match result

Coventry win

41%

6/4

9/4 bet365

+30.6%

Draw

27%

11/4

5/2 Betfred

-6.2%

Sunderland win

32%

2/1

5/4 Betfred

-25.5%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

68%

1/2

Sunderland or draw

59%

4/6

Draw no bet

Coventry

56%

4/5

Sunderland

44%

5/4

Both teams to score

Yes

57%

4/5

43%

5/4

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

3/10

Over 2.5

52%

10/11

evens bet365

+3.2%

Under 2.5

48%

11/10

10/11 bet365

-10.0%

Over 3.5

30%

9/4

Result and BTTS

Coventry and yes

20%

4/1

Draw and yes

20%

4/1

Sunderland and yes

17%

5/1

Result and goals

Coventry and over 2.5

25%

3/1

Sunderland and over 2.5

20%

4/1

Coventry and under 2.5

15%

11/2

Sunderland and under 2.5

13%

7/1

Half time / full time

Coventry / Coventry

25%

3/1

Sunderland / Sunderland

19%

9/2

Draw / Draw

15%

11/2

Draw / Coventry

14%

6/1

Corners

Over 9.5

41%

11/8

Over 10.5

31%

9/4

Cards

Over 3.5

52%

10/11

Over 4.5

35%

15/8

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. The source for bookmaker prices is football-data.co.uk. It covers only match odds, plus over/under 2.5; edge marks where both figures are available.

The starting elevens

Coventry 4-2-3-1

Rushworth, Carl.GK
van Ewijk, Milan.DEF
Da Silva, Jay.DEF
Torp, Victor.MID
Mfuni, Stephen.DEF
Pinnock, Ethan.DEF
Sakamoto, Tatsuhiro.MID
Yirenkyi, Caleb.MID
Awoniyi, Taiwo.FWD
Rudoni, Jack.MID
Gboho, Yann.MID

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Roefs, Robin.GK
Hume, Trai.DEF
Mandava, Reinildo.DEF
Sadiki, Noah.MID
O'Nien, Luke.DEF
Alderete, Omar.DEF
Rigg, Chris.MID
Xhaka, Granit.MID
Brobbey, Brian.FWD
Le Fée, Enzo.MID
Angulo, Nilson.MID

ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Chances for each correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Coventry goals down the side and Sunderland goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7.0	7.4	5.2	2.3	0.7	0.2
1	8.6	12.7	7.7	3.3	1.1	0.3
2	6.9	8.8	5.7	2.4	0.8	0.2
3	3.4	4.3	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.2	1.6	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
5	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

When each side scores

Coventry, 11 games and Sunderland, 11 games. Goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events this season.

Cards and corners

Corners expected total 9.0, with Coventry 5.0, Sunderland 4.0 and the league at 9.9.
Yellow cards expected: 3.9 (league 3.8, referee adjusted).

Latest form

Coventry City

Coventry, last 6
			Result
Sat 24 Oct	v Fulham	0-1	L
Mon 19 Oct	at Tottenham	1-3	L
Mon 12 Oct	v Newcastle	4-1	W
Sat 19 Sep	at Nott'm Forest	1-0	W
Wed 16 Sep	v Aston Villa	1-3	L
Sun 13 Sep	v Brighton	0-5	L

Coventry comes first in the scores.

Sunderland

Sunderland, last 6
			Result
Wed 28 Oct	v Brentford	3-2	W
Sun 25 Oct	v Leeds	0-0	D
Sun 18 Oct	at Bournemouth	0-2	L
Sat 10 Oct	v Brighton	0-2	L
Sun 20 Sep	at Man City	3-5	L
Sat 12 Sep	v Arsenal	0-2	L

Sunderland comes first in the scores.

Head to head

Date	Competition	Result	Half time	Corners
Sat 15 Mar 2025	Championship	Coventry 3-0 Sunderland	2-0	7
Sat 9 Nov 2024	Championship	Sunderland 2-2 Coventry	2-0	9

Premier League standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
14	Ipswich Town	9	3	2	4	-4	11
15	Fulham	9	2	3	4	-2	9
16	Coventry City	9	3	0	6	-7	9
17	Manchester United	9	1	4	4	-5	7
18	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-12	7
19	Nottingham Forest	9	1	3	5	-6	6
20	Sunderland	9	1	2	6	-10	5