Coventry City vs Crystal Palace prediction

Coventry

15:00Saturday 21 November

Palace

Premier League
The venue is Coventry Building Society Arena.
UK TV coverage: not live, due to the Saturday blackout

2-1predicted score (9%)

60%both teams score

57%over 2.5 goals

1.55-1.42expected goals

40%26%34%

How we see it

They have 9 points and have played 9 games, placing Coventry 16th in the Premier League. Palace sit 18th in the table with 7 points from 9 games, 2 points behind.

Across their last 6 matches, Coventry posted 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats. They scored 10 goals and conceded 9. Palace won 2 of their last 6. They drew 1 and lost 3, scoring 4 and conceding 10.

This season, both teams scored in 33% of Coventry matches, and 56% had more than 2.5 goals. Palace recorded 44% and 56%. Coventry average 0.92 expected goals per game and allow 1.52. Palace average 1.24 and allow 2.14.

With Coventry at 1.55 expected goals and Palace at 1.42, the model gives a Coventry win the highest chance at 40% (the draw 26%, Palace 34%).

The score prediction is Coventry City 2-1 Crystal Palace. At 12.0%, 1-1 is the likeliest exact score. Within the result we favor, 2-1 is the most likely score.

Stats for Coventry v Palace

Per game	Coventry	Palace
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.80	0.80
Goals conceded a game	1.20	2.00
Both teams scored	60%	20%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	40%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Corners won / conceded	3.2 / 5.2	4.2 / 9.8
Yellow cards a game	1.2	2.0
xG for / against	0.82 / 1.24	1.23 / 2.44

Per game	Coventry	Palace
Games	9	9
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.00
Goals conceded a game	1.78	2.33
Both teams scored	33%	44%
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%
Clean sheets	11%	11%
Corners won / conceded	3.8 / 4.8	3.2 / 7.0
Yellow cards a game	1.2	1.7
xG for / against	0.92 / 1.52	1.24 / 2.14

Per game	Coventry	Palace
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.40	0.60
Goals conceded a game	1.80	2.20
Both teams scored	40%	20%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	40%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Corners won / conceded	4.2 / 4.2	1.8 / 8.4
Yellow cards a game	1.0	1.4
xG for / against	1.05 / 1.55	1.18 / 2.21

Market fair prices


Match result	Coventry win	40%	6/4
	Draw	26%	29/10
	Palace win	34%	15/8
Double chance	Coventry or draw	66%	8/15
	Palace or draw	60%	4/6
Draw no bet	Coventry	54%	5/6
	Palace	46%	6/5
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	4/6
	No	40%	6/4
Goals	Over 1.5	80%	1/4
	Over 2.5	57%	8/11
	Under 2.5	43%	13/10
	Over 3.5	35%	15/8
Result and BTTS	Coventry and yes	22%	18/5
	Draw and yes	20%	4/1
	Palace and yes	19%	9/2
Result and goals	Coventry and over 2.5	27%	11/4
	Palace and over 2.5	22%	7/2
	Coventry and under 2.5	13%	13/2
	Palace and under 2.5	12%	15/2
Half time / full time	Coventry / Coventry	24%	16/5
	Palace / Palace	20%	4/1
	Draw / Coventry	14%	6/1
	Draw / Draw	14%	13/2
Corners	Over 9.5	45%	6/5
	Over 10.5	35%	15/8
Cards	Over 3.5	34%	15/8
	Over 4.5	20%	4/1

Match result

Coventry win

40%

6/4

Draw

26%

29/10

Palace win

34%

15/8

Double chance

Coventry or draw

66%

8/15

Palace or draw

60%

4/6

Draw no bet

Coventry

54%

5/6

Palace

46%

6/5

Both teams to score

Yes

60%

4/6

40%

6/4

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

1/4

Over 2.5

57%

8/11

Under 2.5

43%

13/10

Over 3.5

35%

15/8

Result and BTTS

Coventry and yes

22%

18/5

Draw and yes

20%

4/1

Palace and yes

19%

9/2

Result and goals

Coventry and over 2.5

27%

11/4

Palace and over 2.5

22%

7/2

Coventry and under 2.5

13%

13/2

Palace and under 2.5

12%

15/2

Half time / full time

Coventry / Coventry

24%

16/5

Palace / Palace

20%

4/1

Draw / Coventry

14%

6/1

Draw / Draw

14%

13/2

Corners

Over 9.5

45%

6/5

Over 10.5

35%

15/8

Cards

Over 3.5

34%

15/8

Over 4.5

20%

4/1

The fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance.

Line-ups we predict

Coventry 4-2-3-1

Rushworth, Carl.GK
Ewijk, Milan van.DEF
Da Silva, Jay.DEF
Torp, Victor.MID
Mfuni, Stephen.DEF
Pinnock, Ethan.DEF
Sakamoto, Tatsuhiro.MID
Yirenkyi, Caleb.MID
Awoniyi, Taiwo.FWD
Rudoni, Jack.MID
Gboho, Yann.MID

They started against Sunderland on Sat 31 Oct.

Palace 4-4-2

BenitezGK · 5 starts
RichardsDEF · 9 starts
MitchellDEF · 9 starts
CanvotDEF · 8 starts
KhalailiDEF · 7 starts
WhartonMID · 9 starts
KamadaMID · 9 starts
YeremyMID · 8 starts
TimberMID · 5 starts, 75% to play
Strand LarsenFWD · 5 starts, 75% to play
NketiahFWD · 3 starts

Unavailable or doubtful: Tomiyasu (Calf injury)

Chances for correct scores

Chance of each score in %, with Coventry goals down the side and Palace goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.8	6.6	5.2	2.4	0.9	0.2
1	7.3	12.0	8.0	3.8	1.3	0.4
2	6.2	8.8	6.2	2.9	1.0	0.3
3	3.2	4.5	3.2	1.5	0.5	0.2
4	1.2	1.8	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Their scoring times

Coventry, 11 games played. Palace, 11 games.

Corners plus cards

9.4corners expected (Coventry 5.7, Palace 3.7; league 9.9)
Expected yellow cards: 3.0 (league 3.8).

Latest form

Coventry City

Coventry's last 6
			Result
Sat 31 Oct	v Sunderland	3-1	W
Sat 24 Oct	v Fulham	0-1	L
Mon 19 Oct	at Tottenham	1-3	L
Mon 12 Oct	v Newcastle	4-1	W
Sat 19 Sep	at Nott'm Forest	1-0	W
Wed 16 Sep	v Aston Villa	1-3	L

Coventry is listed first in the scores.

Crystal Palace

Palace's last 6
			Result
Sat 31 Oct	at Tottenham	0-2	L
Wed 28 Oct	at Fulham	1-0	W
Sun 25 Oct	v Newcastle	0-2	L
Sun 18 Oct	at Brighton	0-5	L
Sun 11 Oct	v Nott'm Forest	3-1	W
Sun 20 Sep	at Leeds	0-0	D

Palace is listed first in the scores.

Premier League standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
14	Ipswich Town	9	3	2	4	-4	11
15	Fulham	9	2	3	4	-2	9
16	Coventry City	9	3	0	6	-7	9
17	Manchester United	9	1	4	4	-5	7
18	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-12	7
19	Nottingham Forest	9	1	3	5	-6	6
20	Sunderland	9	1	2	6	-10	5