Chelsea vs Leeds United prediction

Chelsea

15:00Saturday 21 November

Leeds

Premier League
The venue is Stamford Bridge.
Not live on UK TV (the Saturday blackout)

2-1predicted score (9%)

60%both teams score

58%over 2.5 goals

1.73-1.29expected goals

47%25%28%

Our breakdown

In the Premier League, Chelsea occupy 4th spot with 16 points after 9 games. Leeds sit 12th on 11 points from 9 games, 5 points behind.

Chelsea's last 6 games brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 10 scored and 7 conceded. From their last 6, Leeds took 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6.

This season, 56% of Chelsea games featured goals from both sides, while 67% finished above 2.5 goals. For Leeds the pair of figures is 56% and 22%. Expected goals per game: Chelsea at 1.42 created and 1.40 allowed, Leeds at 1.24 created and 1.30 allowed.

Since August 2024, our results show 2 meetings: 0 Chelsea wins, 1 Leeds win and 1 draw. The most recent of those, on Tuesday 10 February 2026, ended Chelsea 2-2 Leeds.

Four regular starters this season are expected to be missing for Chelsea: Martinez, James, Hato and João Pedro.

Working from expected goals of 1.29 for Leeds and 1.73 for Chelsea, the model rates a Chelsea win likeliest at 47%, the draw 25% and Leeds 28%.

The predicted score is Chelsea 2-1 Leeds United. Of all exact scores, 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.5%, and within the result we lean to, 2-1 is the most likely scoreline.

Chelsea vs Leeds stats

Per game	Chelsea	Leeds
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	2.00	0.40
Goals conceded a game	0.80	1.00
Both teams scored	40%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	20%	20%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Corners won / conceded	5.0 / 6.2	3.8 / 3.2
Yellow cards a game	2.5	2.4
xG for / against	1.51 / 0.95	0.96 / 1.29

Per game	Chelsea	Leeds
Games	9	9
Goals scored a game	2.11	1.00
Goals conceded a game	1.67	0.89
Both teams scored	56%	56%
Over 2.5 goals	67%	22%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Corners won / conceded	5.9 / 5.7	4.1 / 4.1
Yellow cards a game	2.1	1.9
xG for / against	1.42 / 1.40	1.24 / 1.30

Per game	Chelsea	Leeds
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	2.60	0.60
Goals conceded a game	1.60	1.00
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	20%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Corners won / conceded	5.4 / 6.2	4.2 / 4.0
Yellow cards a game	1.6	2.4
xG for / against	1.68 / 1.23	1.01 / 1.46

Per game	Chelsea	Leeds
Games	2	2
Goals scored a game	1.50	2.50
Goals conceded a game	2.50	1.50
Both teams scored	100%	100%
Over 2.5 goals	100%	100%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Corners won / conceded	3.0 / 2.5	2.5 / 3.0
Yellow cards a game	2.5	2.5

Fair prices for each market


Match result	Chelsea win	47%	11/10
	Draw	25%	3/1
	Leeds win	28%	13/5
Double chance	Chelsea or draw	72%	2/5
	Leeds or draw	53%	10/11
Draw no bet	Chelsea	63%	8/13
	Leeds	37%	17/10
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	4/6
	No	40%	6/4
Goals	Over 1.5	81%	2/9
	Over 2.5	58%	8/11
	Under 2.5	42%	7/5
	Over 3.5	36%	9/5
Result and BTTS	Chelsea and yes	25%	3/1
	Draw and yes	19%	4/1
	Leeds and yes	16%	11/2
Result and goals	Chelsea and over 2.5	32%	21/10
	Leeds and over 2.5	18%	9/2
	Chelsea and under 2.5	15%	11/2
	Leeds and under 2.5	10%	9/1
Half time / full time	Chelsea / Chelsea	29%	12/5
	Leeds / Leeds	16%	5/1
	Draw / Chelsea	16%	11/2
	Draw / Draw	13%	13/2
Corners	Over 9.5	59%	8/11
	Over 10.5	48%	11/10
Cards	Over 3.5	58%	8/11
	Over 4.5	41%	7/5

Match result

Chelsea win

47%

11/10

Draw

25%

3/1

Leeds win

28%

13/5

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

72%

2/5

Leeds or draw

53%

10/11

Draw no bet

Chelsea

63%

8/13

Leeds

37%

17/10

Both teams to score

Yes

60%

4/6

40%

6/4

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

2/9

Over 2.5

58%

8/11

Under 2.5

42%

7/5

Over 3.5

36%

9/5

Result and BTTS

Chelsea and yes

25%

3/1

Draw and yes

19%

4/1

Leeds and yes

16%

11/2

Result and goals

Chelsea and over 2.5

32%

21/10

Leeds and over 2.5

18%

9/2

Chelsea and under 2.5

15%

11/2

Leeds and under 2.5

10%

9/1

Half time / full time

Chelsea / Chelsea

29%

12/5

Leeds / Leeds

16%

5/1

Draw / Chelsea

16%

11/2

Draw / Draw

13%

13/2

Corners

Over 9.5

59%

8/11

Over 10.5

48%

11/10

Cards

Over 3.5

58%

8/11

Over 4.5

41%

7/5

Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.

Scorer and card chances


Chelsea	Rogers MID	5	2.8	30%	23/10	28%
Chelsea	Palmer MID	3	2.5	28%	13/5	20%
Chelsea	Neto MID	3	1.8	23%	17/5	22%
Chelsea	Lavia MID	1	0.8	16%	11/2	18%
Leeds	Calvert-Lewin FWD	3	3.9	36%	9/5	28%
Leeds	Stach MID	1	1.5	18%	9/2	0%
Leeds	Bogle DEF	2	1.6	17%	5/1	28%
Leeds	Tanaka MID	0	0.9	13%	7/1	25%

Players appear here only if they're at least 75% likely to play.

Line-ups we predict

Chelsea 4-2-3-1

PendersGK · 2 starts
ColwillDEF · 8 starts
AcheampongDEF · 6 starts
FofanaDEF · 5 starts
GustoDEF · 3 starts
RogersMID · 9 starts
PalmerMID · 9 starts
NetoMID · 8 starts
LaviaMID · 5 starts
HendersonMID · 4 starts, 75% to play
WelbeckFWD · 1 starts

Unavailable or doubtful: James (Knee injury); Martinez (Head injury); Hato (Unspecified injury); Lacroix (Hamstring injury); João Pedro (Thigh injury)

Leeds 4-2-3-1

TraffordGK · 9 starts
MuharemovićDEF · 9 starts
JustinDEF · 9 starts
BogleDEF · 9 starts
GudmundssonDEF · 7 starts
AmpaduMID · 9 starts
StachMID · 7 starts
TanakaMID · 7 starts
OkaforMID · 6 starts, 75% to play
WilsonMID · 3 starts
Calvert-LewinFWD · 9 starts

Chances of each correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Chelsea goals down the side and Leeds goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.5	5.6	4.1	1.8	0.6	0.1
1	7.8	11.5	7.0	3.0	1.0	0.3
2	7.3	9.4	6.1	2.6	0.8	0.2
3	4.2	5.4	3.5	1.5	0.5	0.1
4	1.8	2.3	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.1
5	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Scoring times

Chelsea games: 12. Leeds, 11 games.

Cards and corners

Corners expected: 10.6 in total, Chelsea 5.9, Leeds 4.7 and league 9.9.
Expected yellow cards: 4.2, compared with 3.8 in the league.

Latest form

Chelsea

Chelsea last 6
			Result
Sat 31 Oct	v Man United	2-0	W
Wed 28 Oct	at Liverpool	1-1	D
Sat 24 Oct	v Tottenham	0-2	L
Sat 17 Oct	at Everton	2-0	W
Sat 10 Oct	v Bournemouth	5-1	W
Fri 18 Sep	at Brentford	0-3	L

The scores are listed with Chelsea first.

Leeds United

Leeds' last 6 matches
			Result
Sat 31 Oct	at Bournemouth	0-2	L
Sun 25 Oct	at Sunderland	0-0	D
Sun 18 Oct	v Man United	1-1	D
Sat 10 Oct	at Arsenal	1-2	L
Sun 20 Sep	v Crystal Palace	0-0	D
Mon 14 Sep	v Newcastle	4-1	W

The scores are listed with Leeds first.

Head to head

Date	Competition	Result	Half time	Corners
Tue 10 Feb 2026	Premier League	Chelsea 2-2 Leeds	1-0	5
Wed 3 Dec 2025	Premier League	Leeds 3-1 Chelsea	2-0	6

Premier League table

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
2	Manchester City	9	7	0	2	+10	21
3	Brighton & Hove Albion	9	6	1	2	+17	19
4	Chelsea	9	5	1	3	+4	16
5	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	+2	15
6	Brentford	9	3	5	1	+7	14
10	Aston Villa	9	3	3	3	-3	12
11	Hull City	9	2	5	2	+1	11
12	Leeds United	9	2	5	2	+1	11
13	Newcastle United	9	3	2	4	-3	11
14	Ipswich Town	9	3	2	4	-4	11