football-tips.uk

Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction

Aston Villa crestAston Villa
15:00Saturday 21 November
SunderlandSunderland crest
1-0predicted score (10%)
54%both teams score
51%over 2.5 goals
1.68-1.05expected goals

Our breakdown

Aston Villa occupy 10th place in the Premier League, picking up 12 points from 9 games. Sunderland sit 20th with 5 points from 9, trailing by 7.

Across their last 6, Aston Villa recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 9 scored and 9 conceded. In their last 6, Sunderland managed 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 14.

This season, 56% of Aston Villa matches featured goals from both teams, and 56% had more than 2.5 goals. Sunderland's figures are 44% and 33%. Aston Villa generate 1.20 expected goals per match and concede 1.68. Sunderland generate 1.47 and concede 1.75.

Since August 2024, our results list 2 meetings: 1 Aston Villa win, 0 Sunderland wins and 1 draw. The most recent meeting, on Sunday 19 April 2026, ended with Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland.

Cash and Wan-Bissaka are both expected to be missing for Aston Villa, and both are regular starters this season.

Ballard, a regular starter this season, is expected to be missing for Sunderland.

The likeliest outcome in the model is an Aston Villa win at 51%. The draw sits at 26% and Sunderland 23%, and all three figures are built from expected goals: Aston Villa 1.68, Sunderland 1.05.

The prediction is Aston Villa 1-0 Sunderland. At 12.2%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. Within the result we favor, 1-0 ranks highest.

Aston Villa vs Sunderland stats

Per gameAston Villa crestAston VillaSunderland crestSunderland
Games55
Goals scored a game1.200.80
Goals conceded a game1.401.80
Both teams scored60%40%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%
Clean sheets20%20%
Corners won / conceded4.5 / 5.04.5 / 4.8
Yellow cards a game2.21.8
xG for / against1.57 / 1.460.86 / 1.77

Fair prices for each market

Match resultAston Villa win51%10/11
Draw26%29/10
Sunderland win23%10/3
Double chanceAston Villa or draw77%3/10
Sunderland or draw49%21/20
Draw no betAston Villa69%4/9
Sunderland31%11/5
Both teams to scoreYes54%5/6
No46%6/5
GoalsOver 1.576%3/10
Over 2.551%10/11
Under 2.549%21/20
Over 3.529%12/5
Result and BTTSAston Villa and yes24%16/5
Draw and yes18%9/2
Sunderland and yes12%15/2
Result and goalsAston Villa and over 2.532%21/10
Sunderland and over 2.513%13/2
Aston Villa and under 2.519%4/1
Sunderland and under 2.510%9/1
Half time / full timeAston Villa / Aston Villa32%21/10
Draw / Aston Villa17%5/1
Draw / Draw15%6/1
Sunderland / Sunderland13%13/2
CornersOver 9.547%11/10
Over 10.536%9/5
CardsOver 3.560%4/6
Over 4.543%13/10

Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.

Chances for goalscorers and cards

Aston Villa crestAston VillaManzambi MID21.636%9/518%
Aston Villa crestAston VillaMcGinn MID12.434%15/822%
Aston Villa crestAston VillaN.Jackson FWD52.231%11/522%
Aston Villa crestAston VillaBuendía MID11.627%11/425%
Sunderland crestSunderlandBrobbey FWD33.530%12/513%
Sunderland crestSunderlandE.Le Fée MID23.021%18/50%
Sunderland crestSunderlandMukiele DEF00.88%11/113%
Sunderland crestSunderlandO'Nien DEF00.37%12/128%

We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.

Line-up predictions

Aston Villa crestAston Villa 4-2-3-1

  1. SuzukiGK · 8 starts
  2. LindelöfDEF · 9 starts
  3. MaatsenDEF · 6 starts
  4. PauDEF · 5 starts
  5. MingsDEF · 4 starts
  6. KamaraMID · 9 starts
  7. McGinnMID · 8 starts
  8. BuendíaMID · 7 starts
  9. GomesMID · 5 starts
  10. ManzambiMID · 5 starts
  11. N.JacksonFWD · 8 starts

Out or doubtful: Wan-Bissaka (Hamstring injury) and Cash (Suspended until 21 Nov).

Sunderland crestSunderland 4-2-3-1

  1. RoefsGK · 9 starts
  2. ReinildoDEF · 8 starts
  3. MukieleDEF · 7 starts, 75% to play
  4. HumeDEF · 6 starts
  5. MeunierDEF · 6 starts
  6. XhakaMID · 9 starts
  7. E.Le FéeMID · 9 starts
  8. SadikiMID · 9 starts
  9. N.AnguloMID · 8 starts
  10. RiggMID · 3 starts
  11. BrobbeyFWD · 7 starts

Out or doubtful: Ballard (Hamstring injury) and Alderete, who is Suspended until 21 Nov.

Chances of the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Aston Villa goals listed down the side and Sunderland goals across
012345
07.26.23.61.30.30.1
110.212.26.12.10.60.1
29.29.75.11.80.50.1
35.15.42.81.00.30.1
42.22.31.20.40.10.0
50.70.80.40.10.00.0

Scoring times

311-150216-303331-453146-602361-752176-90

Aston Villa, 11 games and Sunderland, 11 games.

Cards and corners

Form guide

Aston Villa crestAston Villa

Aston Villa's last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octv Fulham1-1D
Wed 28 Octat Bournemouth0-3L
Sat 24 Octv Man City2-1W
Sat 17 Octat Newcastle1-0W
Sat 10 Octv Brentford2-2D
Sat 19 Sepat Tottenham3-2W

Aston Villa scores come first.

Sunderland crestSunderland

Sunderland's last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octat Coventry1-3L
Wed 28 Octv Brentford3-2W
Sun 25 Octv Leeds0-0D
Sun 18 Octat Bournemouth0-2L
Sat 10 Octv Brighton0-2L
Sun 20 Sepat Man City3-5L

Sunderland scores come first.

Head to head

DateCompetitionResultHalf timeCorners
Sun 19 Apr 2026Premier LeagueAston Villa 4-3 Sunderland2-19
Sun 21 Sep 2025Premier LeagueSunderland 1-1 Aston Villa0-011

Premier League table

PosClubPWDLGDPts
8AFC Bournemouth crestAFC Bournemouth9333+112
9Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur9333+012
10Aston Villa crestAston Villa9333-312
11Hull City crestHull City9252+111
12Leeds United crestLeeds United9252+111
18Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace9216-127
19Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest9135-66
20Sunderland crestSunderland9126-105

Standings updated Thursday 5 November

Other Premier League predictions