AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest prediction
Analysis from us
From 9 games, Bournemouth have 12 points and sit 8th in the Premier League. Nottm Forest sit 19th in the table on 6 points from 9 games, 6 points behind.
Bournemouth's last 6 matches brought 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, with 11 goals for and 6 against. Nottm Forest's last 6 matches gave them 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 56% of Bournemouth games this season, and 56% went past 2.5 goals. Nottm Forest's figures are 44% and 33%. In expected goals, Bournemouth create 1.75 per game and allow 1.12. Nottm Forest's figures are 1.63 created and 1.03 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results include 4 meetings: 2 Bournemouth wins, 0 for Nottm Forest and 2 draws. Sunday 24 May 2026 saw the latest meeting end Nott'm Forest 1-1 Bournemouth.
Scott, a regular starter this season, is expected to be unavailable for Bournemouth.
At 50%, the likeliest result in the model is a Bournemouth win, ahead of the draw on 26% and Nottm Forest 24%. The expected goals behind that are 1.65 for Bournemouth, 1.08 for Nottm Forest.
Our prediction: AFC Bournemouth 1-0 Nottingham Forest. At 12.3%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score; for the result we lean toward, 1-0 ranks highest.
Stats for Bournemouth v Nottm Forest
| Per game |  Bournemouth |  Nottm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 3.2 | 6.2 / 3.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 2.26 / 0.76 | 1.70 / 1.03 |
| Per game | Bournemouth | Nottm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.56 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.44 | 1.33 |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 11% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.6 / 4.0 | 4.7 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.75 / 1.12 | 1.63 / 1.03 |
| Per game | Bournemouth | Nottm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 3.6 | 4.6 / 3.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 2.04 / 0.95 | 2.22 / 1.18 |
| Per game | Bournemouth | Nottm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.25 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.5 / 5.2 | 5.2 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Bournemouth win | 50% | evens |
| Draw | 26% | 29/10 | |
| Nottm Forest win | 24% | 16/5 | |
| Double chance | Bournemouth or draw | 76% | 3/10 |
| Nottm Forest or draw | 50% | evens | |
| Draw no bet | Bournemouth | 68% | 1/2 |
| Nottm Forest | 32% | 21/10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 5/6 |
| No | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 76% | 3/10 |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 10/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 21/20 | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 12/5 | |
| Result and BTTS | Bournemouth and yes | 23% | 10/3 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Nottm Forest and yes | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Result and goals | Bournemouth and over 2.5 | 31% | 11/5 |
| Nottm Forest and over 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Bournemouth and under 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Nottm Forest and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Bournemouth / Bournemouth | 31% | 11/5 |
| Draw / Bournemouth | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Nottm Forest / Nottm Forest | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 52% | 10/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 36% | 9/5 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance.
Chances for goalscorers and cards
| Bournemouth | Tavernier MID | 5 | 3.7 | 32% | 21/10 | 28% |
| Bournemouth | Evanilson FWD | 4 | 3.6 | 31% | 11/5 | 11% |
| Bournemouth | Rayan MID | 1 | 2.5 | 23% | 17/5 | 0% |
| Bournemouth | Kluivert MID | 1 | 1.4 | 20% | 4/1 | 15% |
| Nottm Forest | Delap FWD | 1 | 2.7 | 22% | 7/2 | 25% |
| Nottm Forest | Gibbs-White MID | 1 | 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 | 0% |
| Nottm Forest | Ndoye MID | 2 | 2.3 | 15% | 11/2 | 11% |
| Nottm Forest | Muñoz DEF | 0 | 1.1 | 10% | 17/2 | 15% |
Players listed here are at least 75% likely to play.
Expected team selections
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
- PetrovićGK · 9 starts
- HillDEF · 9 starts
- SilvaDEF · 9 starts
- TruffertDEF · 9 starts
- SmithDEF · 9 starts
- RayanMID · 9 starts
- TavernierMID · 9 starts
- AdamsMID · 7 starts
- KluivertMID · 6 starts
- CookMID · 4 starts
- EvanilsonFWD · 9 starts
Scott (Thigh injury) is out or doubtful.
Nottm Forest 4-2-3-1
- SelsGK · 9 starts
- MurilloDEF · 9 starts
- N.WilliamsDEF · 9 starts
- Jair CunhaDEF · 7 starts
- MuñozDEF · 6 starts
- McAteeMID · 9 starts
- NdoyeMID · 9 starts
- Gibbs-WhiteMID · 8 starts
- SchlagerMID · 8 starts
- I.SangaréMID · 1 starts
- DelapFWD · 7 starts
Igor Jesus (Calf injury) is out or doubtful.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Bournemouth, 11 games and Nottm Forest, 10 games.
Corners plus cards
- 9.4corners expected (Bournemouth 4.9, Nottm Forest 4.5; league 9.9)
- The expected yellow card total is 3.9, compared with 3.8 for the league.
Form lately
AFC Bournemouth
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Leeds | 2-0 | W |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Aston Villa | 3-0 | W |
| Sun 25 Oct | at Man United | 3-0 | W |
| Sun 18 Oct | v Sunderland | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Chelsea | 1-5 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | v Liverpool | 0-1 | L |
The Bournemouth score comes first.
Nottingham Forest
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Brentford | 0-2 | L |
| Fri 23 Oct | at Ipswich | 1-1 | D |
| Sun 18 Oct | v Arsenal | 0-1 | L |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Crystal Palace | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Coventry | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 12 Sep | at Aston Villa | 2-1 | W |
The Nottm Forest score comes first.
Head to head
| Sun 24 May 2026 | Premier League | Nott'm Forest 1-1 Bournemouth | 1-0 | 9 |
| Sun 26 Oct 2025 | Premier League | Bournemouth 2-0 Nott'm Forest | 2-0 | 10 |
| Sat 25 Jan 2025 | Premier League | Bournemouth 5-0 Nott'm Forest | 1-0 | 12 |
| Sat 17 Aug 2024 | Premier League | Nott'm Forest 1-1 Bournemouth | 1-0 | 8 |
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +0 | 13 |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November