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AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United prediction

AFC Bournemouth crestBournemouth
2-0full time, Sat 31 Oct
LeedsLeeds United crest
2-1predicted score (10%)
56%both teams score
55%over 2.5 goals
1.73-1.13expected goals

After removing the margin, the market has Bournemouth 45%, a draw 28% and Leeds 28% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).

The model's view

A total of 12 points from 9 games leaves Bournemouth 8th in the Premier League. With 11 from 9, Leeds are 12th, 1 points behind.

Bournemouth's last 6 matches produced 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 11 scored and 8 conceded. Across their last 6, Leeds recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 10.

This season, both teams scored in 62% of Bournemouth games, while 62% had more than 2.5 goals; Leeds' figures are 62% and 25%. Bournemouth's expected goals are 1.81 a game, with 1.18 allowed; Leeds show 1.30 created and 1.30 allowed.

Since August 2024, the 2 meetings in our results show 0 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Leeds and 2 draws. Their latest meeting, on Wednesday 22 April 2026, ended Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds.

Scott, who has started regularly this season, is expected to be out for Bournemouth.

Expected goals stand at 1.73 for Bournemouth, 1.13 for Leeds, and on that basis the model picks a Bournemouth win at 51%, with the draw 25% and Leeds 24%. After their margin is removed, UK bookmakers put it at 45%, so our rating sits above the market.

Forecast score: AFC Bournemouth 2-1 Leeds United. The likeliest exact score by itself is 1-1 at 11.8%; within the result we lean toward, 2-1 is the likeliest score.

Stats: Bournemouth v Leeds

Per gameAFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthLeeds United crestLeeds
Games55
Goals scored a game1.801.20
Goals conceded a game1.200.80
Both teams scored20%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%
Clean sheets60%40%
Corners won / conceded4.8 / 3.04.0 / 3.4
Yellow cards a game2.22.2
xG for / against2.14 / 1.001.20 / 1.20

Best UK odds and fair prices

Match resultBournemouth win51%evens6/5 Betfred+9.2%
Draw25%3/15/2 Betfred-12.3%
Leeds win24%3/15/2 bet365-15.4%
Double chanceBournemouth or draw76%1/3
Leeds or draw49%21/20
Draw no betBournemouth68%1/2
Leeds32%2/1
Both teams to scoreYes56%4/5
No44%5/4
GoalsOver 1.579%2/7
Over 2.555%5/610/11 bet365+2.7%
Under 2.545%6/5evens bet365-10.1%
Over 3.532%2/1
Result and BTTSBournemouth and yes25%3/1
Draw and yes19%9/2
Leeds and yes13%7/1
Result and goalsBournemouth and over 2.533%2/1
Leeds and over 2.515%6/1
Bournemouth and under 2.518%9/2
Leeds and under 2.59%10/1
Half time / full timeBournemouth / Bournemouth32%9/4
Draw / Bournemouth17%5/1
Leeds / Leeds14%6/1
Draw / Draw14%6/1
CornersOver 9.552%10/11
Over 10.541%6/4
CardsOver 3.551%evens
Over 4.534%15/8

A fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which lists match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. The edge appears where both numbers are available.

Card and goalscorer chances

AFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthTavernier MID53.733%2/128%
AFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthEvanilson FWD43.633%2/110%
AFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthRayan MID12.524%10/30%
AFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthKluivert MID11.421%4/115%
Leeds United crestLeedsCalvert-Lewin FWD33.932%2/128%
Leeds United crestLeedsStach MID11.516%5/10%
Leeds United crestLeedsBogle DEF21.615%11/228%
Leeds United crestLeedsTanaka MID00.911%8/124%

The Fantasy Premier League feed supplies each player's goals, xG, minutes and bookings. From these, plus our expectation of team goals and the referee's card rate, we work out the chances. We list only players who are at least 75% likely to play.

Who starts for each club

AFC Bournemouth crestBournemouth 4-2-3-1

  1. Petrovic, Djordje.GK
  2. Smith, Adam.DEF
  3. Truffert, Adrien.DEF
  4. Christie, Ryan.MID
  5. James HillDEF
  6. Silva, António.DEF
  7. RayanMID
  8. Adams, Tyler.MID
  9. EvanilsonFWD
  10. Justin KluivertMID
  11. Tavernier, Marcus.MID

Leeds United crestLeeds 3-4-2-1

  1. James TraffordGK
  2. Bogle, Jayden.MID
  3. Gudmundsson, Gabriel.MID
  4. Muharemovic, Tarik.DEF
  5. Elvedi, Nico.DEF
  6. James JustinDEF
  7. Ampadu, Ethan.MID
  8. Tanaka, Ao.MID
  9. Calvert-Lewin, Dominic.FWD
  10. Wilson, Harry.FWD
  11. James, Daniel.FWD

ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Chances for each correct score

The chance of every score in %, with Bournemouth goals down the side and Leeds goals across
012345
06.45.83.61.40.40.1
19.211.86.32.40.70.2
28.69.75.52.10.60.1
34.95.63.21.20.30.1
42.12.41.40.50.10.0
50.70.80.50.20.10.0

When the goals go in

411-151116-306231-454646-603261-753276-90

11 games for Bournemouth. Leeds, 11 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.

Cards and corners

Latest form

AFC Bournemouth crestAFC Bournemouth

Last 6 for Bournemouth
Result
Wed 28 Octv Aston Villa3-0W
Sun 25 Octat Man United3-0W
Sun 18 Octv Sunderland2-0W
Sat 10 Octat Chelsea1-5L
Sun 20 Sepv Liverpool0-1L
Sat 12 Sepv Brentford2-2D

The scores are listed with Bournemouth first.

Leeds United crestLeeds United

Leeds in their last 6
Result
Sun 25 Octat Sunderland0-0D
Sun 18 Octv Man United1-1D
Sat 10 Octat Arsenal1-2L
Sun 20 Sepv Crystal Palace0-0D
Mon 14 Sepv Newcastle4-1W
Wed 9 Sepat Chelsea3-6L

Here the scores are listed with Leeds first.

Head to head

DateCompetitionResultHalf timeCorners
Wed 22 Apr 2026Premier LeagueBournemouth 2-2 Leeds0-013
Sat 27 Sep 2025Premier LeagueLeeds 2-2 Bournemouth1-111

Premier League standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
6Brentford crestBrentford9351+714
7Everton crestEverton9342+013
8AFC Bournemouth crestAFC Bournemouth9333+112
9Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur9333+012
10Aston Villa crestAston Villa9333-312
11Hull City crestHull City9252+111
12Leeds United crestLeeds United9252+111
13Newcastle United crestNewcastle United9324-311
14Ipswich Town crestIpswich Town9324-411

The standings come from ESPN and are as of Wednesday 4 November.

Other Premier League predictions