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Tranmere Rovers vs Cheltenham Town prediction

Tranmere Rovers crestTranmere
3-1full time, Sat 31 Oct
CheltenhamCheltenham Town crest
2-1predicted score (9%)
62%both teams score
60%over 2.5 goals
1.67-1.43expected goals

Without margin, the market gives Tranmere 50%, draw 25% and Cheltenham 24% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).

What the model found

Tranmere sit 11th in League Two, and they've taken 19 points from 14 games. Cheltenham sit 5th with 21 points from 14 games, 2 points ahead.

Across their last 6 matches, Tranmere recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses. They scored 7 goals and allowed 9. Cheltenham's recent 6 games brought 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded.

This season, both teams scored in 62% of Tranmere matches, while 31% went over 2.5 goals. Cheltenham's figures are 77% and 69%. Expected goals per game for Tranmere are 1.13, and they allow 1.46. Cheltenham create 1.10 while allowing 1.66.

Our results since August 2024 cover 4 meetings between the two: 3 wins for Tranmere, 1 for Cheltenham and 0 ended level. The most recent meeting, on Tuesday 21 April 2026, ended Cheltenham 1-3 Tranmere.

At 43%, a Tranmere win is the model's likeliest result (the draw 25%, Cheltenham 32%), with 1.67 expected goals for Tranmere, 1.43 for Cheltenham. Once their margin is removed, UK bookmakers put it at 50%, so the market sees a higher chance than we do.

Our prediction: Tranmere Rovers 2-1 Cheltenham Town. At 11.4%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. Within the result we favor, 2-1 is the likeliest score.

Stats for Tranmere v Cheltenham

Per gameTranmere Rovers crestTranmereCheltenham Town crestCheltenham
Games55
Goals scored a game1.201.20
Goals conceded a game1.602.00
Both teams scored80%40%
Over 2.5 goals40%40%
Clean sheets20%20%
Corners won / conceded5.6 / 7.03.6 / 5.2
Yellow cards a game2.22.8
xG for / against1.08 / 1.560.93 / 1.77

The best UK odds and fair prices

Match resultTranmere win43%11/85/6 BetVictor-21.0%
Draw25%3/111/4 Paddy Power-6.3%
Cheltenham win32%2/13/1 bet365+26.1%
Double chanceTranmere or draw68%1/2
Cheltenham or draw57%8/11
Draw no betTranmere57%8/11
Cheltenham43%11/8
Both teams to scoreYes62%8/13
No38%13/8
GoalsOver 1.582%2/9
Over 2.560%4/68/11 bet365+3.5%
Under 2.540%6/411/10 bet365-16.4%
Over 3.537%13/8
Result and BTTSTranmere and yes24%10/3
Draw and yes20%4/1
Cheltenham and yes19%9/2
Result and goalsTranmere and over 2.529%5/2
Cheltenham and over 2.522%7/2
Tranmere and under 2.513%13/2
Cheltenham and under 2.510%17/2
Half time / full timeTranmere / Tranmere26%11/4
Cheltenham / Cheltenham19%4/1
Draw / Tranmere14%6/1
Draw / Draw13%13/2
CornersOver 9.551%10/11
Over 10.540%6/4
CardsOver 3.550%evens
Over 4.533%2/1

Our chance divided into 1 gives the fair price. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk. It lists match odds, plus over/under 2.5 only, and edge appears where we have both figures.

Players set to start

Tranmere Rovers crestTranmere 4-4-1-1

  1. McGee, Luke.GK
  2. Senior, Joel.DEF
  3. Slater, Jacob.DEF
  4. Vaulks, Will.MID
  5. Faulkner, Bobby.DEF
  6. Turnbull, Jordan.DEF
  7. Jones, Dylan.MID
  8. Conlon, Tom.MID
  9. Ironside, Joe.FWD
  10. Ince, Tom.FWD
  11. Whitaker, Charlie.MID

Cheltenham Town crestCheltenham 4-2-3-1

  1. Stanway, Wyll.GK
  2. Tomkinson, Jonathan.DEF
  3. Shipley, Jordan.DEF
  4. McWilliams, Shaun.MID
  5. Sweeney, Pierce.DEF
  6. Wilson, James.DEF
  7. Evans, Jake.MID
  8. Stevenson, Ben.MID
  9. Weimann, Andreas.FWD
  10. Mccann, Charlie.MID
  11. Broom, Ryan.MID

For the starting elevens, ESPN data was read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.

Chances for the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Tranmere goals shown down the side and Cheltenham goals across
012345
05.25.84.62.20.80.2
16.911.47.73.71.30.4
26.39.06.43.11.10.3
33.55.03.61.70.60.2
41.52.11.50.70.30.1
50.50.70.50.20.10.0

Scoring times

231-154516-303531-454446-605361-753476-90

Tranmere, 15 games ; the same count applies to Cheltenham, 15 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.

Cards and corners

Form in recent matches

Tranmere Rovers crestTranmere Rovers

The last 6 matches for Tranmere
Result
Sat 24 Octat Crawley Town1-1D
Tue 20 Octat Northampton1-0W
Sat 17 Octv Barnet1-2L
Sat 10 Octv Rochdale1-1D
Sat 3 Octat Chesterfield2-4L
Sat 26 Sepv Walsall1-1D

Tranmere's score comes first.

Cheltenham Town crestCheltenham Town

The last 6 matches for Cheltenham
Result
Sat 24 Octv Newport County1-0W
Tue 20 Octv Fleetwood Town4-2W
Sat 17 Octat Oldham1-4L
Sat 10 Octv Salford0-2L
Sat 3 Octat Accrington0-2L
Sat 26 Sepv Chesterfield2-1W

Cheltenham's score is listed first.

Head to head

Tue 21 Apr 2026League TwoCheltenham 1-3 Tranmere1-09
Sat 15 Nov 2025League TwoTranmere 3-2 Cheltenham2-19
Fri 28 Mar 2025League TwoTranmere 2-0 Cheltenham1-010
Fri 22 Nov 2024League TwoCheltenham 1-0 Tranmere0-014

League Two table

PosClubPWDLGDPts
3Walsall crestWalsall13571+922
4Crewe Alexandra crestCrewe Alexandra14572+022
5Cheltenham Town crestCheltenham Town14635-221
6Grimsby Town crestGrimsby Town14554+620
7York City crestYork City14554+320
8Gillingham crestGillingham14554+120
9Accrington Stanley crestAccrington Stanley14473+619
10Chesterfield crestChesterfield14545+319
11Tranmere Rovers crestTranmere Rovers14473+219
12Exeter City crestExeter City14545+219
13Swindon Town crestSwindon Town14545-219

The standings come from ESPN as of Wednesday 4 November.

Other League Two predictions