Swindon Town vs Rotherham United prediction
After removing the market margin, averages from 6 UK bookmakers give Swindon 41%, draw 26% and Rotherham 33%.
What the model found
Swindon have earned 19 points across 14 matches and sit 13th in League Two. In 22nd place, Rotherham have 12 points from 14 matches and trail Swindon by 7.
Across their last 6, Swindon recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 5 scored and 5 conceded. In their last 6, Rotherham recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, scoring 7 goals and conceding 13.
So far this season, both teams scored in 46% of Swindon games and 46% went over 2.5 goals. Rotherham's figures are 69% and 54%. Each game, Swindon's expected goals are 1.28 and their expected goals allowed are 1.71; Rotherham's are 1.36 and 1.40.
Based on 1.68 expected goals for Swindon and 1.18 for Rotherham, the model gives a Swindon win 48%, the draw 25% and Rotherham 26%. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers price it at 41%, and our rating is higher than the market's.
Our forecast is Swindon Town 2-1 Rotherham United. At 12.0%, 1-1 is the likeliest single exact score; inside the result we favor, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats: Swindon v Rotherham
| Per game |  Swindon |  Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.8 / 7.8 | 3.0 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.35 / 2.00 | 1.08 / 1.92 |
| Per game | Swindon | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.23 | 1.77 |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 8% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 7.9 | 3.7 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.28 / 1.71 | 1.36 / 1.40 |
| Per game | Swindon | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 5.7 | 4.3 / 6.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.72 / 1.28 | 1.24 / 1.18 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Swindon win | 48% | 21/20 | 5/4 BetVictor | +11.1% |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | 5/2 bet365 | -8.3% | |
| Rotherham win | 26% | 11/4 | 15/8 BetVictor | -24.5% | |
| Double chance | Swindon or draw | 74% | 4/11 | ||
| Rotherham or draw | 52% | 10/11 | |||
| Draw no bet | Swindon | 65% | 8/15 | ||
| Rotherham | 35% | 15/8 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 8/11 | ||
| No | 43% | 11/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | 2/7 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 5/6 | 8/11 bet365 | -7.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 6/5 | 11/10 bet365 | -4.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 2/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Swindon and yes | 24% | 3/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Rotherham and yes | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Swindon and over 2.5 | 31% | 9/4 | ||
| Rotherham and over 2.5 | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Swindon and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Rotherham and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Swindon / Swindon | 30% | 9/4 | ||
| Draw / Swindon | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Rotherham / Rotherham | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 49% | 21/20 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 43% | 5/4 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 28% | 11/4 |
We calculate a fair price by dividing 1 by our chance. football-data.co.uk supplies the bookmaker prices and lists match odds with over/under 2.5 only. Edge appears where both figures are available.
Line-ups for the start
Swindon 3-4-2-1
- Ripley, Connor.GK
- Clark, Mitchell.MID
- Butler, Dan.MID
- Kirkman, Billy.DEF
- Negru, Stephan.DEF
- Ball, James.DEF
- Thomson, Shaun.MID
- Virtue-Thick, Matthew.MID
- Drinan, Aaron.FWD
- Nichols, Tom.FWD
- Snowdon, Joseph.FWD
Rotherham 4-3-3
- Eyestone, Julian.GK
- Rafferty, Joseph.DEF
- Ngwenya, Kieran.DEF
- Fitzgerald, Jayce.MID
- Hall, Denzel.DEF
- Iorfa, Dominic.DEF
- Cover, Brandon.MID
- Austerfield, Joshua.MID
- Mullin, Paul.FWD
- Nemane, Aaron.FWD
- Buyabu, Jili.FWD
The starting elevens came from ESPN and were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
The data covers Swindon, 15 games and Rotherham, 15 games. This season's goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.6, with Swindon 4.9 and Rotherham 5.7 compared against a league figure of 9.9.
- Expected yellow cards: 3.4 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Latest form
Swindon Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Bristol Rvs | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Barnet | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Walsall | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Crewe | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Rochdale | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Accrington | 1-1 | D |
When reading scores, Swindon comes first.
Rotherham United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Shrewsbury | 3-3 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Newport County | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Gillingham | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Exeter | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Crewe | 1-1 | D |
When reading scores, Rotherham comes first.
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |  Tranmere Rovers | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 | Rotherham United | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester United | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
ESPN provided the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00