Salford City vs Exeter City prediction
With the market margin taken out: draw 24%, Salford City 57%, Exeter 19% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
What the model found
Salford City sit 1st in the League Two table, on 31 points from 14 games. Exeter sit 12th, on 19 points from 14, 12 points behind.
Salford City's last 6 show 6 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. They scored 15 and conceded 5. Exeter's last 6 show 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. They scored 6 and conceded 2.
Across the season so far, 54% of Salford City games saw both teams score, with 54% going over 2.5 goals. Exeter's figures are 23% and 15%. Expected goals show Salford City creating 1.23 a game and allowing 1.07, while Exeter sit at 1.10 created and 1.11 allowed.
The model works from expected goals, 1.29 for Salford City, with 0.97 for Exeter, and rates a Salford City win highest at 43%, the draw 30% and Exeter 27% Take out the margin and UK bookmakers have it at 57%, which puts the market above our own rating.
Prediction: Salford City 1-0 Exeter City. One exact score is the single likeliest: 1-1 at 13.8%. Within the result we favor, 1-0 has the highest chance
Stats for Salford City v Exeter
| Per game |  Salford City |  Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 80% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 4.8 | 4.2 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.36 / 0.90 | 1.31 / 0.94 |
| Per game | Salford City | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.77 | 0.77 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.08 | 0.54 |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 15% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 54% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 4.8 | 4.3 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.23 / 1.07 | 1.10 / 1.11 |
| Per game | Salford City | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.17 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 8.2 / 3.2 | 3.3 / 6.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 0.81 | 0.69 / 1.58 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | Salford City win | 43% | 11/8 | 8/13 BetVictor | -30.1% |
| Draw | 30% | 9/4 | 3/1 bet365 | +18.8% | |
| Exeter win | 27% | 11/4 | 4/1 bet365 | +35.8% | |
| Double chance | Salford City or draw | 73% | 4/11 | ||
| Exeter or draw | 57% | 8/11 | |||
| Draw no bet | Salford City | 61% | 8/13 | ||
| Exeter | 39% | 13/8 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 6/5 | ||
| No | 54% | 5/6 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 67% | 1/2 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 6/4 | 8/11 bet365 | -31.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 4/6 | 11/10 bet365 | +25.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Salford City and yes | 16% | 5/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Exeter and yes | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Salford City and over 2.5 | 22% | 7/2 | ||
| Exeter and over 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Salford City and under 2.5 | 21% | 7/2 | |||
| Exeter and under 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Salford City / Salford City | 26% | 3/1 | ||
| Draw / Draw | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Salford City | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Exeter / Exeter | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 41% | 11/8 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 3/1 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk. It carries match odds plus over/under 2.5 and nothing more, and edge marks where both numbers are available.
The starting XIs
Salford City 5-4-1
- Norris, Will.GK
- Odoh, Abraham.DEF
- Garbutt, Luke.DEF
- Aimson, Will.DEF
- Scarr, Dan.DEF
- Oluwo, Adebola.DEF
- Woodburn, Ben.MID
- Bonds, Elliott.MID
- Langstaff, Macaulay.FWD
- Sarpong-Wiredu, Brendan.MID
- Molyneux, Luke.MID
Exeter 4-2-3-1
- Bycroft, Jack.GK
- Samuel, Lakyle.DEF
- Woodhouse, Luca.DEF
- Cummins, Charlie.MID
- Taylor, Jack.DEF
- Fitzwater, Jack.DEF
- Birch, George.MID
- Kite, Harry.MID
- Cox, Sonny.FWD
- Taylor PerryMID
- Scully, Anthony.MID
ESPN starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12
Chances for each scoreline
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Games: Salford City, 15; Exeter, 15 This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- We expect 10.0 corners (Salford City 5.5, Exeter 4.5 against a league figure of 9.9).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.3 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Latest form
Salford City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 Oct | at Walsall | 4-2 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Bristol Rvs | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Crawley Town | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Cheltenham | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Fleetwood Town | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Oldham | 4-1 | W |
Salford City is listed first in the scores.
Exeter City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Fleetwood Town | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Crewe | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Colchester | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Shrewsbury | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Rotherham | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Bristol Rvs | 0-1 | L |
Exeter is listed first in the scores.
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere Rovers | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
The table comes from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00