Oldham Athletic vs Crawley Town prediction
From an average of 6 UK bookmakers, the market with margin removed has Oldham 56%, draw 23%, Crawley 21%.
What the model made of the game
In the League Two standings Oldham sit 18th, taking 15 points from 14 games. Crawley sit 24th in the table, 6 points behind, on 9 from 12.
Oldham's last 6 games brought 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 6 scored and 11 conceded. From their last 6, Crawley took 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 13.
So far this season, both teams scored in 50% of Oldham games and 50% went over 2.5 goals; Crawley sit at 73% and 55%. Expected goals put Oldham at 1.49 a game with 1.25 allowed, while Crawley sit at 1.31 and 1.78 allowed.
Since August 2024 the two sides have met 2 times in our results: 1 Oldham win, 0 Crawley wins and 1 match ending level. The most recent of those, played Saturday 28 February 2026, ended Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town.
Expected goals stand at 1.53 for Oldham and 0.96 for Crawley. From those, the model sees an Oldham win as likeliest at 50%, with the draw 27% and Crawley 23%. UK bookmakers, once their margin is removed, price it at 56%, which is a higher rating than our own.
Score prediction: Oldham Athletic 1-0 Crawley Town. For exact scores, the single likeliest is 1-1 at 12.9%. Inside the result we lean to, 1-0 is likeliest.
Stats for Oldham v Crawley
| Per game |  Oldham |  Crawley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 7.6 | 4.0 / 7.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.41 / 1.33 | 1.18 / 1.97 |
| Per game | Oldham | Crawley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 11 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.17 | 1.09 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.91 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 5.8 | 4.1 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.49 / 1.25 | 1.31 / 1.78 |
| Per game | Oldham | Crawley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.83 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 5.5 | 4.2 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.34 / 0.98 | 1.41 / 1.70 |
| Per game | Oldham | Crawley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.5 / 3.5 | 3.5 / 7.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.5 | 1.0 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Oldham win | 50% | evens | 4/6 Betfred | -16.8% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 10/3 Paddy Power | +14.4% | |
| Crawley win | 23% | 10/3 | 7/2 bet365 | +3.4% | |
| Double chance | Oldham or draw | 77% | 3/10 | ||
| Crawley or draw | 50% | evens | |||
| Draw no bet | Oldham | 68% | 4/9 | ||
| Crawley | 32% | 9/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 21/20 | ||
| No | 51% | evens | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 72% | 2/5 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 6/5 | 4/7 bet365 | -29.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 5/6 | 11/8 bet365 | +28.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 10/3 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Oldham and yes | 20% | 4/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Crawley and yes | 10% | 17/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Oldham and over 2.5 | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| Crawley and over 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Oldham and under 2.5 | 22% | 7/2 | |||
| Crawley and under 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Oldham / Oldham | 30% | 9/4 | ||
| Draw / Oldham | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Crawley / Crawley | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 56% | 4/5 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 45% | 6/5 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 62% | 8/13 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 45% | 6/5 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, a source that covers match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. Edge marks where we have both numbers.
The starting elevens
Oldham 4-2-3-1
- Hudson, Matthew.GK
- Sutton, Will.DEF
- Robson, Jamie.DEF
- Payne, Kai.MID
- Daniels, Donervon.DEF
- Monthe, Emmanuel.DEF
- Drummond, Kane.MID
- Norburn, Oliver.MID
- Fondop-Talom, Mike.FWD
- Kavanagh, Calum.MID
- Fawunmi, Favour.MID
Crawley 4-1-4-1
- Mannone, Vito.GK
- Gordon, Kellan.DEF
- Richardson, Lewis.DEF
- Barker, Charlie.MID
- Farquharson, Priestley.DEF
- Russell, Jonathan.DEF
- Duke-McKenna, Stephen.MID
- Arthurs, Jude.MID
- Orsi-Dadomo, Danilo.FWD
- Jennings, Kai.MID
- Morgan, Dylan.MID
The starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12, come from ESPN.
Chances for each exact score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Timing of the goals
For Oldham we have 15 games, and for Crawley, 14 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- 10.3corners expected, with the league at 9.9 (Oldham 5.7, Crawley 4.7)
- Yellow cards expected: 4.5 (league 3.7, adjusted for the referee).
Form guide
Oldham Athletic
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Barnet | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Walsall | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cheltenham | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Accrington | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Salford | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Rochdale | 0-2 | L |
Oldham scores come first.
Crawley Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Tranmere | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Shrewsbury | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Salford | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Chesterfield | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Grimsby | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Cheltenham | 1-3 | L |
Crawley scores come first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 28 Feb 2026 | League Two | Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town | 1-0 | 11 |
| Sat 13 Dec 2025 | League Two | Crawley Town 2-2 Oldham | 1-0 | 11 |
Table for League Two
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham United | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester United | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00