Northampton Town vs Oldham Athletic prediction
With the margin removed, averages from 5 UK bookmakers give Northampton 41%, a draw 29%, Oldham 31%.
What the model found
Northampton sit 21st in the League Two table, earning 14 points from 13 games. Oldham sit 18th with 15 points from 14 games, 1 point ahead.
Northampton's last 6 games brought 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 scored and 4 conceded. Oldham's last 6 games gave them 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats, 6 goals scored and 10 conceded.
This season, 33% of Northampton matches saw both teams score, while 0% went above 2.5 goals; Oldham's figures are 46% and 46%. Northampton's expected goals are 0.79 a game, with 1.18 allowed; Oldham's are 1.45 created and 1.29 allowed.
Expected goals are 0.98 for Northampton and 1.07 for Oldham, and on those figures the model rates an Oldham win highest at 36%, against Northampton 32% and the draw 32%. Take the margin out and UK bookmakers price it at 31%, so our rating sits above what the market says.
The scoreline we settle on is Northampton Town 0-1 Oldham Athletic. One exact score stands out as likeliest, 1-1 at 14.3%. Within the result we lean to, 0-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Northampton v Oldham
| Per game |  Northampton |  Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 4.6 | 3.2 / 7.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.08 / 1.60 | 1.44 / 1.37 |
| Per game | Northampton | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.75 | 1.08 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.75 | 1.46 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 23% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 3.9 | 5.0 / 5.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 0.79 / 1.18 | 1.45 / 1.29 |
| Per game | Northampton | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 3.3 | 5.0 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 0.79 / 1.03 | 1.64 / 1.52 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Northampton win | 32% | 9/4 | 5/4 Betfred | -27.0% |
| Draw | 32% | 9/4 | 9/4 Sky Bet | +5.7% | |
| Oldham win | 36% | 7/4 | 2/1 BetVictor | +12.3% | |
| Double chance | Northampton or draw | 64% | 4/7 | ||
| Oldham or draw | 68% | 4/9 | |||
| Draw no bet | Northampton | 47% | 11/10 | ||
| Oldham | 53% | 10/11 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 11/8 | ||
| No | 58% | 8/11 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 61% | 8/13 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 34% | 2/1 | 6/5 bet365 | -27.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1/2 | 4/6 bet365 | +11.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Northampton and yes | 11% | 8/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Oldham and yes | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Northampton and over 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | ||
| Oldham and over 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Northampton and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Oldham and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Draw / Draw | 21% | 7/2 | ||
| Oldham / Oldham | 21% | 4/1 | |||
| Northampton / Northampton | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Oldham | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51% | evens | ||
| Over 10.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 36% | 7/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk gives us the bookmaker prices, and it carries match odds plus the over/under 2.5 market, nothing more. The edge column shows where we have both numbers.
Who starts for each side
Northampton 3-4-2-1
- Jeacock, Zach.GK
- Wormleighton, Joe.MID
- Powell, Josh.MID
- Guthrie, Jon.DEF
- Moore, Elliott.DEF
- Donacien, Janoi.DEF
- Lemonheigh-Evans, Connor.MID
- Evans, Lee.MID
- Warhurst, Matthew.FWD
- Dale, Owen.FWD
- O'Brien-Whitmarsh, Joseph.FWD
Oldham 3-4-1-2
- Hudson, Matthew.GK
- Scott-Morriss, Gus.MID
- Robson, Jamie.MID
- Monthe, Emmanuel.DEF
- Daniels, Donervon.DEF
- Sutton, Will.DEF
- Norburn, Oliver.MID
- Pett, Thomas.MID
- Chilvers, Noah.MID
- Fondop-Talom, Mike.FWD
- Kavanagh, Calum.FWD
ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 14.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the teams score
Games covered: Northampton, 14; Oldham, 15. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corners and card counts
- Corners expected: 9.9 in total, with Northampton 5.1 and Oldham 4.8; the league figure is 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.9 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Latest form
Northampton Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Accrington | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Colchester | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Tranmere | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Grimsby | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at York | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Rotherham | 0-1 | L |
The scores list Northampton first.
Oldham Athletic
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Crawley Town | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Barnet | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Walsall | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cheltenham | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Accrington | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Salford | 1-4 | L |
The scores list Oldham first.
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | Northampton Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham United | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester United | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
ESPN provides the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00