Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
Margin removed, the market sits at Arsenal 40%, draw 28% and Liverpool 32%, the average of 6 UK bookmakers.
The model's view
With 15 points from 9 games, Liverpool sit 5th in the Premier League. On 24 points from 9 games, Arsenal are 1st, 9 points ahead.
Across their last 6, Liverpool took 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat; they scored 9 and conceded 6. In their last 6 matches Arsenal took 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 10 goals in and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 38% of Liverpool games this season and 50% of them went over 2.5 goals. Arsenal's numbers are 25% and 50%. Each game, Liverpool create 1.51 expected goals and allow 1.20. Arsenal's numbers are 1.74 created and 0.77 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results cover 4 meetings, split between 1 Liverpool win, 0 Arsenal wins and 3 that ended level. The most recent meeting was Thursday 8 January 2026, with the result Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool.
Saka, a regular starter this season, is expected to be absent for Arsenal.
The model puts an Arsenal win first at 44%, with Liverpool 28% and the draw 28%. It works from expected goals: Liverpool 1.08 and Arsenal 1.41. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers have it at 40%, so our rating is higher than the market figure.
We predict a Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal result. At 13.4%, 1-1 is the highest single exact-score chance. Within the outcome we favor, 0-1 leads the score options.
Liverpool v Arsenal figures
| Per game |  Liverpool |  Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 3.5 | 6.5 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.36 / 1.07 | 1.76 / 0.86 |
| Per game | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.38 | 1.62 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.62 |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 62% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 4.1 | 5.6 / 3.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.51 / 1.20 | 1.74 / 0.77 |
| Per game | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 75% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 5.2 | 4.5 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.29 / 1.40 | 1.42 / 1.08 |
| Per game | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 2.2 / 3.2 | 3.2 / 2.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Liverpool win | 28% | 5/2 | 2/1 Betway | -15.6% |
| Draw | 28% | 5/2 | 5/2 Betfred | -1.7% | |
| Arsenal win | 44% | 5/4 | 11/8 bet365 | +5.1% | |
| Double chance | Liverpool or draw | 56% | 4/5 | ||
| Arsenal or draw | 72% | 2/5 | |||
| Draw no bet | Liverpool | 39% | 6/4 | ||
| Arsenal | 61% | 4/6 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | evens | ||
| No | 49% | 21/20 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 72% | 2/5 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 6/5 | 10/11 bet365 | -14.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 5/6 | evens bet365 | +7.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 3/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Liverpool and yes | 13% | 7/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Arsenal and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Liverpool and over 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | ||
| Arsenal and over 2.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |||
| Liverpool and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Arsenal and under 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Arsenal / Arsenal | 26% | 11/4 | ||
| Draw / Draw | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Liverpool / Liverpool | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Arsenal | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 48% | 11/10 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 37% | 7/4 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 52% | 10/11 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 35% | 15/8 |
Divide 1 by our chance to find the fair price. Odds come from football-data.co.uk, which covers only match odds and over/under 2.5. Edge appears when we have both figures.
Scorer and card chances
| Liverpool | Isak FWD | 6 | 4.3 | 33% | 2/1 | 12% |
| Liverpool | Szoboszlai MID | 1 | 1.5 | 17% | 5/1 | 15% |
| Liverpool | Gakpo MID | 1 | 1.2 | 14% | 6/1 | 0% |
| Liverpool | Wirtz MID | 0 | 1.5 | 12% | 15/2 | 10% |
| Arsenal | Havertz FWD | 3 | 2.8 | 26% | 3/1 | 12% |
| Arsenal | Ødegaard MID | 2 | 2.2 | 19% | 9/2 | 10% |
| Arsenal | Gabriel DEF | 1 | 1.5 | 13% | 13/2 | 20% |
| Arsenal | Calafiori DEF | 1 | 1.2 | 12% | 7/1 | 0% |
The Fantasy Premier League feed supplies player goals, xG, minutes and bookings. Chances combine those figures with the referee's card rate and our team goal expectation. We list only players with at least a 75% chance of playing.
Who starts for each side
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
- Becker, Alisson.GK
- Araujo, Ronald.DEF
- Kerkez, Milos.DEF
- Nyoni, Trey.MID
- Jacquet, Jérémy.DEF
- Van Dijk, Virgil.DEF
- Gakpo, Cody.MID
- Mac Allister, Alexis.MID
- Isak, Alexander.FWD
- Wirtz, Florian.MID
- Barcola, Bradley.MID
Arsenal 4-2-3-1
- Raya, David.GK
- Timber, Jurriën.DEF
- Calafiori, Riccardo.DEF
- Guimarães, Bruno.MID
- Konsa, Ezri.DEF
- Magalhães, Gabriel.DEF
- Madueke, Noni.MID
- Rice, Declan.MID
- Havertz, Kai.FWD
- Ødegaard, Martin.MID
- Tzolis, Christos.MID
The starting elevens are taken from ESPN, checked on Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 13.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Liverpool, 11 games and Arsenal, 11 games. This season's goals by minute came from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 9.6 in total, with league 9.9, Liverpool 4.9 and Arsenal 4.7.
- We expect 3.9 yellow cardsThe league average is 3.8, referee adjusted
Latest form
Liverpool
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | v Chelsea | 1-1 | D |
| Sun 25 Oct | v Brighton | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Brentford | 2-1 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | v Man City | 0-3 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Bournemouth | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 15 Sep | v Tottenham | 3-1 | W |
Liverpool is listed first in the scores.
Arsenal
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Everton | 2-0 | W |
| Sun 18 Oct | at Nott'm Forest | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Leeds | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Brighton | 0-3 | L |
| Tue 15 Sep | at Ipswich | 4-2 | W |
Arsenal is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Thu 8 Jan 2026 | Premier League | Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool | 0-0 | 3 |
| Sun 31 Aug 2025 | Premier League | Liverpool 1-0 Arsenal | 0-0 | 11 |
| Sun 11 May 2025 | Premier League | Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal | 2-0 | 4 |
| Sun 27 Oct 2024 | Premier League | Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool | 2-1 | 4 |
Premier League standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +0 | 13 |
The table comes from ESPN and is current as of Wednesday 4 November.