Port Vale vs Rochdale prediction

Port Vale

4-2full time, Sat 31 Oct

Rochdale

League Two
Ground: Vale Park
E Heaslip, 4.5 cards per game in 19, is the referee

Port Vale: Onel Hernández 2', George Byers 11', Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel 22', Keyrol Figueroa 86'.
Rochdale: Ian Henderson 82', Charlie Tasker 91'.

1-0predicted score (13%)

46%both teams score

41%over 2.5 goals

1.44-0.89expected goals

49%28%23%

With the margin removed, market prices are Port Vale 56%, a draw 25% and Rochdale 19%, from the average of 6 UK bookmakers.

The model's view

Port Vale have 15 points from 12 games and sit 19th in the League Two. In 20th place, Rochdale have 15 from 14, 0 points level.

Port Vale's last 6 show 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 4 goals scored and 5 conceded. Rochdale's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 8 scored and 12 against.

In 27% of Port Vale games this season, both teams scored, while 9% had more than 2.5 goals. Rochdale's figures are 46% and 62%. Expected goals for Port Vale are 1.14 a game with 1.05 allowed; Rochdale's figures are 0.79 created and 1.73 allowed.

From 1.44 expected goals for Port Vale, 0.89 for Rochdale, the model rates a Port Vale win at 49%, the draw at 28% and Rochdale 23%. Once the margin is removed, UK bookmakers price it at 56%, a higher rating than the model gives.

The forecast is Port Vale 1-0 Rochdale.

Stats: Port Vale v Rochdale

Per game	Port Vale	Rochdale
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	0.60	1.20
Goals conceded a game	1.00	2.20
Both teams scored	20%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	0%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Corners won / conceded	4.8 / 6.4	6.2 / 4.8
Yellow cards a game	1.8	1.0
xG for / against	1.24 / 0.89	1.09 / 1.73

Per game	Port Vale	Rochdale
Games	11	13
Goals scored a game	0.55	1.15
Goals conceded a game	1.09	1.69
Both teams scored	27%	46%
Over 2.5 goals	9%	62%
Clean sheets	36%	31%
Corners won / conceded	4.8 / 5.2	4.7 / 5.2
Yellow cards a game	1.9	1.8
xG for / against	1.14 / 1.05	0.79 / 1.73

Per game	Port Vale	Rochdale
Games	5	6
Goals scored a game	0.80	0.83
Goals conceded a game	0.20	1.50
Both teams scored	20%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	0%	50%
Clean sheets	80%	17%
Corners won / conceded	4.2 / 4.4	4.7 / 5.3
Yellow cards a game	1.8	2.0
xG for / against	1.65 / 0.62	0.58 / 1.61

Best UK odds and fair prices


Match result	Port Vale win	49%	21/20	4/6 Betway	-17.4%
	Draw	28%	5/2	11/4 bet365	+7.5%
	Rochdale win	23%	7/2	4/1 bet365	+12.8%
Double chance	Port Vale or draw	77%	2/7
	Rochdale or draw	51%	evens
Draw no bet	Port Vale	69%	4/9
	Rochdale	31%	9/4
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	6/5
	No	54%	5/6
Goals	Over 1.5	68%	4/9
	Over 2.5	41%	11/8	evens bet365	-18.2%
	Under 2.5	59%	8/11	10/11 bet365	+10.3%
	Over 3.5	21%	4/1
Result and BTTS	Port Vale and yes	19%	9/2
	Draw and yes	18%	9/2
	Rochdale and yes	9%	10/1
Result and goals	Port Vale and over 2.5	26%	11/4
	Rochdale and over 2.5	11%	17/2
	Port Vale and under 2.5	23%	10/3
	Rochdale and under 2.5	12%	15/2
Half time / full time	Port Vale / Port Vale	30%	9/4
	Draw / Port Vale	18%	9/2
	Draw / Draw	18%	9/2
	Rochdale / Rochdale	13%	7/1
Corners	Over 9.5	56%	4/5
	Over 10.5	45%	5/4
Cards	Over 3.5	47%	11/10
	Over 4.5	31%	9/4

Match result

Port Vale win

49%

21/20

4/6 Betway

-17.4%

Draw

28%

5/2

11/4 bet365

+7.5%

Rochdale win

23%

7/2

4/1 bet365

+12.8%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

77%

2/7

Rochdale or draw

51%

evens

Draw no bet

Port Vale

69%

4/9

Rochdale

31%

9/4

Both teams to score

Yes

46%

6/5

54%

5/6

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

4/9

Over 2.5

41%

11/8

evens bet365

-18.2%

Under 2.5

59%

8/11

10/11 bet365

+10.3%

Over 3.5

21%

4/1

Result and BTTS

Port Vale and yes

19%

9/2

Draw and yes

18%

9/2

Rochdale and yes

10/1

Result and goals

Port Vale and over 2.5

26%

11/4

Rochdale and over 2.5

11%

17/2

Port Vale and under 2.5

23%

10/3

Rochdale and under 2.5

12%

15/2

Half time / full time

Port Vale / Port Vale

30%

9/4

Draw / Port Vale

18%

9/2

Draw / Draw

18%

9/2

Rochdale / Rochdale

13%

7/1

Corners

Over 9.5

56%

4/5

Over 10.5

45%

5/4

Cards

Over 3.5

47%

11/10

Over 4.5

31%

9/4

Our fair price is 1 divided by our chance. Odds come from football-data.co.uk, which lists only match odds and over/under 2.5. Edge appears where both numbers are available.

Players named to start

Port Vale 3-5-2

Marosi, Marko.GK
Lawrence-Gabriel, Jordan.MID
Headley, Jaheim.MID
Hall, Connor.DEF
Moon, Jasper.DEF
Humphreys, Cameron.DEF
Dempsey, Kyle.MID
Hall, George.MID
Hernández, Onel.FWD
Watters, Max.FWD
Byers, George.MID

Rochdale 4-2-3-1

Waller, Sam.GK
Sherring, Sam.DEF
Tasker, Charlie.DEF
Gilmour, Harvey.MID
Flint, Aden.DEF
Wilson, Kaiden.DEF
Hayes, Cian.MID
Adeeko, Babajide.MID
Brown, Dajaune.FWD
Silcott-Duberry, Zain.MID
Middleton, Glenn.MID

The starting elevens come from ESPN and were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.

Chances for the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Port Vale goals down the side and Rochdale goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10.4	7.9	3.9	1.1	0.3	0.0
1	13.2	13.2	5.6	1.7	0.4	0.1
2	10.1	9.0	4.0	1.2	0.3	0.0
3	4.8	4.3	1.9	0.6	0.1	0.0
4	1.7	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0
5	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Scoring times

For Port Vale, 13 games; for Rochdale, 16 games. ESPN match events this season show the goals scored by minute.

Cards and corners

Expected corners: 10.3, with Port Vale 5.0 and Rochdale 5.3; league 9.9.
Expected yellow cards, 3.6 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).

Latest form

Port Vale

Port Vale, last 6
			Result
Sat 24 Oct	at York	0-2	L
Tue 20 Oct	at Gillingham	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	v Chesterfield	1-0	W
Sat 10 Oct	v Grimsby	1-0	W
Sat 19 Sep	at Walsall	0-2	L
Sat 12 Sep	v Exeter	1-0	W

The scores show Port Vale first.

Rochdale

Rochdale, last 6
			Result
Sat 24 Oct	v Accrington	0-5	L
Tue 20 Oct	v Grimsby	2-2	D
Sat 17 Oct	at Crewe	2-3	L
Sat 10 Oct	at Tranmere	1-1	D
Sat 3 Oct	v Swindon	1-0	W
Sat 26 Sep	at Fleetwood Town	2-1	W

The scores show Rochdale first.

League Two standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16
18	Oldham Athletic	14	4	3	7	-4	15
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15
21	Northampton Town	13	3	5	5	-1	14
22	Rotherham United	14	2	6	6	-7	12

ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.

Port Vale vs Rochdale prediction

The model's view

Stats: Port Vale v Rochdale

Best UK odds and fair prices

Players named to start

Port Vale 3-5-2

Rochdale 4-2-3-1

Chances for the correct score

Scoring times

Cards and corners

Latest form

Port Vale

Rochdale

League Two standings

Other League Two predictions