Plymouth Argyle vs Reading prediction
With the margin removed, the market shows Plymouth 41%, draw 25% and Reading 34%. That comes from an average across 6 UK bookmakers.
The model's view of the match
Plymouth hold 5th place in League One, earning 23 points from 14 games. Reading sit 6th with 22 points from 13 games, 1 point behind.
Plymouth's last 6 matches brought 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded. Reading's last 6 matches brought 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 11 goals scored and 6 conceded.
For Plymouth this season, both teams scored in 46% of games and 54% went over 2.5 goals. Reading's figures are 58% and 58%. Using expected goals, Plymouth create 1.49 per game and allow 1.45, while Reading sit at 1.90 and allow 1.12.
Our results include 2 meetings since August 2024. Plymouth won 0 of them, Reading won 1, and 1 finished level. The most recent meeting ended with Reading 2-2 Plymouth on Saturday 14 March 2026.
Expected goals are 1.63 for Plymouth and 1.49 for Reading. On that basis, the model gives a Plymouth win 41%, the draw 25% and Reading 34%. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers rate it at 41%, which is close to our number.
Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Reading is the score we predict. For exact scores, 1-1 ranks highest at 11.4%. Within the result we lean to, the likeliest score is 2-1.
Stats for Plymouth v Reading
| Per game |  Plymouth |  Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 7.8 | 5.6 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.34 / 1.53 | 1.73 / 1.27 |
| Per game | Plymouth | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.62 | 2.08 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.46 | 1.08 |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 6.2 | 5.4 / 4.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.49 / 1.45 | 1.90 / 1.12 |
| Per game | Plymouth | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.33 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.3 / 6.3 | 5.4 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.36 / 1.42 | 1.84 / 0.99 |
| Per game | Plymouth | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.5 | 2.0 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Plymouth win | 41% | 6/4 | 5/4 BetVictor | -6.5% |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | 11/4 Paddy Power | -5.1% | |
| Reading win | 34% | 15/8 | 15/8 bet365 | -3.0% | |
| Double chance | Plymouth or draw | 66% | 8/15 | ||
| Reading or draw | 59% | 4/6 | |||
| Draw no bet | Plymouth | 54% | 5/6 | ||
| Reading | 46% | 6/5 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 4/7 | ||
| No | 37% | 7/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | 2/9 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 4/6 | 8/15 bet365 | -7.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | 11/8 bet365 | -4.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Plymouth and yes | 23% | 10/3 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Reading and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Plymouth and over 2.5 | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| Reading and over 2.5 | 24% | 10/3 | |||
| Plymouth and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Reading and under 2.5 | 11% | 17/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Plymouth / Plymouth | 25% | 3/1 | ||
| Reading / Reading | 21% | 4/1 | |||
| Draw / Plymouth | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 56% | 4/5 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 45% | 5/4 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 52% | 10/11 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 36% | 15/8 |
To work out a fair price, divide 1 by our chance. We get bookmaker prices from football-data.co.uk. It has match odds plus over/under 2.5 only, so edge appears where both numbers are available.
The starting line-ups
Plymouth 3-4-3
- Storer, James.GK
- Edwards, Joe.MID
- Mackenzie, Jack.MID
- Harding, Wes.DEF
- Mitchell, Alex.DEF
- Pleguezuelo, Julio.DEF
- Bakinson, Tyreeq.MID
- White, Harvey.MID
- Pepple, Aribim.FWD
- Amaechi, Xavier.FWD
- Evans, Will.FWD
Reading 4-2-3-1
- Pereira, Joel.GK
- Godwin-Malife, Udoka.DEF
- Dorsett, Jeriel.DEF
- Rinomhota, Andy.MID
- Knight, Josh.DEF
- O'Conner, Paudie.DEF
- Lisbie, Kyreece.MID
- Wing, Lewis.MID
- Reid, Jamie.FWD
- Stokes, Joshua.MID
- Williams, Randell.MID
The starting elevens were read from ESPN on Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for the exact score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For Plymouth, 16 games; Reading, 17 games. ESPN match events from this season show the goals scored by minute.
Corner and card figures
- Corners expected sit at 10.3 (Plymouth 5.2, Reading 5.1), and the league figure is 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.9 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Form from recent matches
Plymouth Argyle
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Cambridge | 3-2 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Stevenage | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Huddersfield | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v AFC Wimbledon | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Leyton Orient | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Burton | 0-1 | L |
The scores show Plymouth first.
Reading
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Barnsley | 2-1 | W |
| Wed 21 Oct | v Leyton Orient | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Wigan | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Milton Keynes Dons | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Bradford | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Wycombe | 2-2 | D |
The scores show Reading first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Mar 2026 | League One | Reading 2-2 Plymouth | 2-1 | 6 |
| Fri 26 Dec 2025 | League One | Plymouth 1-4 Reading | 0-3 | 12 |
League One standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Luton Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 |  Oxford United | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 | Reading | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +12 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford City | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +0 | 21 |
The standings come from ESPN and are as of Wednesday 4 November.