Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion prediction
The analysis we provide
In League One, MK Dons sit 12th on 18 points from 13 games. Burton Albion sit 15th, 1 point behind, with 17 points from 14 games.
Across their last 6, MK Dons recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Across their last 6 matches, Burton Albion recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 9.
Both teams scored in 69% of MK Dons matches this season, and 54% of them finished above 2.5 goals; Burton Albion's numbers are 64% and 64%. MK Dons produce 1.66 expected goals per match and concede 1.45; Burton Albion's numbers are 0.88 created and 1.50 allowed.
The model gives the highest probability to an MK Dons win at 48%. A draw has 26%, and Burton Albion 26%. It uses 1.62 expected goals for MK Dons and 1.15 for Burton Albion.
Our prediction: Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Burton Albion. At 12.4%, 1-1 is the most likely exact score; 2-1 is the most likely score within the result we favor.
Stats: MK Dons v Burton Albion
| Per game |  MK Dons |  Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 5.0 | 6.8 / 6.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 2.10 / 0.83 | 1.00 / 1.29 |
| Per game | MK Dons | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.69 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.54 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 5.8 | 4.3 / 5.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.66 / 1.45 | 0.88 / 1.50 |
| Per game | MK Dons | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.14 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.43 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 6.1 | 4.9 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| xG for / against | 1.64 / 1.72 | 0.70 / 1.65 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | MK Dons win | 48% | 11/10 |
| Draw | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Burton Albion win | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Double chance | MK Dons or draw | 74% | 4/11 |
| Burton Albion or draw | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Draw no bet | MK Dons | 64% | 8/15 |
| Burton Albion | 36% | 15/8 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 4/5 |
| No | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 3/10 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 11/10 | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | MK Dons and yes | 23% | 10/3 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Burton Albion and yes | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Result and goals | MK Dons and over 2.5 | 30% | 9/4 |
| Burton Albion and over 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |
| MK Dons and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Burton Albion and under 2.5 | 11% | 17/2 | |
| Half time / full time | MK Dons / MK Dons | 29% | 5/2 |
| Draw / MK Dons | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Burton Albion / Burton Albion | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 50% | evens |
| Over 10.5 | 39% | 6/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 37% | 7/4 |
| Over 4.5 | 22% | 7/2 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't yet include prices from UK bookmakers for this match. They usually appear on football-data.co.uk two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Expected starting XIs
MK Dons 3-1-4-2
- Dennis, William.GK
- Silvera, Samuel.MID
- Campbell, Elijah.MID
- Goode, Charlie.DEF
- Ekpiteta, Marvin.DEF
- Sanders, Jack.DEF
- Crowley, Daniel.MID
- Wintle, Ryan.DEF
- Nombe, Sam.FWD
- Collins, Aaron.FWD
- Gilbey, Alex.MID
They began the match Sat 31 Oct v Doncaster.
Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
- Addai, Corey.GK
- Borges Rodrigues, Raphael.MID
- Armer, Jack.MID
- Sraha, Jason.DEF
- Tilt, Curtis.DEF
- Sibbick, Toby.DEF
- Krubally, Sulyman.MID
- Chauke, Kgagelo.MID
- O’Mahony, Mark.FWD
- Kingslyn Arubi, Gbemi.FWD
- Webster, Charlie.FWD
They started Sat 31 Oct at Wycombe.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who started their most recent match. Once they're named, ESPN's confirmed teams replace these, about an hour ahead of kick-off.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Games for MK Dons, 14; games for Burton Albion, 15. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 9.8 in total, with MK Dons 4.9 and Burton Albion 4.9; the league average is 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.1, with the league at 3.7.
Form from recent matches
Milton Keynes Dons
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Doncaster | 6-1 | W |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Bromley | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Stevenage | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Blackpool | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Luton | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Reading | 1-5 | L |
MK Dons scores come first.
Burton Albion
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Wycombe | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Leyton Orient | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Bradford | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Peterborough | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Doncaster | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Huddersfield | 1-3 | L |
Burton Albion scores come first.
Table for League One
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 |  Leicester City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Wycombe Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
ESPN provides the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.