Oxford United vs Reading prediction
With the margin removed, the market has Oxford Utd 36%, draw 26% and Reading 38% (average of 5 UK bookmakers).
What the model made of the game
In the League One, Oxford Utd sit 4th on 23 points from 12 games. Reading sit 6th with 22 from 13, 1 points behind.
Across their last 6, Oxford Utd recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 7 goals for and 4 against. Reading's last 6 include 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded.
For Oxford Utd this season, 67% of matches included goals from both teams, while 58% finished above 2.5 goals; Reading's matching figures are 54% and 54%. Expected goals per game put Oxford Utd at 1.50 created and 1.54 allowed. Reading had 1.83 created and 1.10 allowed.
The likeliest outcome in the model is an Oxford Utd win at 42%. A draw is 28% and Reading 30%, based on 1.40 expected goals for Oxford Utd and 1.14 for Reading. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers put it at 36%. We therefore rate it above the market.
The prediction is Oxford United 1-0 Reading. At 13.3%, 1-1 has the highest chance of any exact score. Within the result we favor, 1-0 is most likely.
Stats for Oxford Utd v Reading
| Per game |  Oxford Utd |  Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.8 / 6.2 | 5.2 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.80 / 1.79 | 1.81 / 1.25 |
| Per game | Oxford Utd | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 1.92 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 38% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 6.6 | 5.5 / 4.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.50 / 1.54 | 1.83 / 1.10 |
| Per game | Oxford Utd | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 6.3 | 5.7 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.48 / 1.27 | 1.71 / 0.96 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Oxford Utd win | 42% | 11/8 | 13/8 Paddy Power | +11.0% |
| Draw | 28% | 5/2 | 5/2 BetVictor | +0.7% | |
| Reading win | 30% | 9/4 | 6/4 BetVictor | -25.5% | |
| Double chance | Oxford Utd or draw | 70% | 4/9 | ||
| Reading or draw | 58% | 8/11 | |||
| Draw no bet | Oxford Utd | 59% | 8/11 | ||
| Reading | 41% | 11/8 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 10/11 | ||
| No | 48% | 11/10 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | 4/11 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | 8/11 bet365 | -20.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | 11/10 bet365 | +12.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Oxford Utd and yes | 19% | 9/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Reading and yes | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Oxford Utd and over 2.5 | 24% | 3/1 | ||
| Reading and over 2.5 | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Oxford Utd and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Reading and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Oxford Utd / Oxford Utd | 25% | 3/1 | ||
| Reading / Reading | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Oxford Utd | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 42% | 11/8 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 11/4 |
Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which lists match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. Our edge figure appears where we have both numbers.
Line-ups for the starting players
Oxford Utd 4-2-3-1
- Eastwood, Simon.GK
- Kioso, Peter.DEF
- Currie, Jack.DEF
- Brannagan, Cameron.MID
- Helik, Michal.DEF
- Brown, Ciaron.DEF
- Emakhu, Aidomo.MID
- Andrews, Kai.MID
- Harris, Mark.FWD
- Goodrham, Tyler.MID
- Dembele, Siriki.MID
Reading 4-4-1-1
- Pereira, Joel.GK
- Godwin-Malife, Udoka.DEF
- Roberts, Hayden.DEF
- Wing, Lewis.MID
- O'Conner, Paudie.DEF
- Dorsett, Jeriel.DEF
- Lisbie, Kyreece.MID
- Rinomhota, Andy.MID
- Marriott, Jack.FWD
- Stokes, Joshua.FWD
- Kyerewaa, Daniel.MID
ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Thursday 5 November, 04:57.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
The totals are Oxford Utd, 14 games, and Reading, 17 games. This season's goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corner and card figures
- 10.5corners expected (Oxford Utd 4.9, Reading 5.7; league 10.4)
- The referee adjusted estimate is 3.4 yellow cards, against 3.7 for the league.
Form from recent matches
Oxford United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Barnsley | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Stockport | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Bradford | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Wigan | 2-1 | W |
| Thu 15 Oct | at Mansfield | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Notts County | 2-1 | W |
Each score lists Oxford Utd first.
Reading
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Plymouth | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Barnsley | 2-1 | W |
| Wed 21 Oct | v Leyton Orient | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Wigan | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Milton Keynes Dons | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Bradford | 1-1 | D |
Each score lists Reading first.
League One standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +12 | 26 |
| 3 |  Luton Town | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 | Oxford United | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 |  Plymouth Argyle | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 |
| 6 | Reading | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +12 | 22 |
| 7 |  Bradford City | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +0 | 21 |
The standings came from ESPN and were current on Wednesday 4 November.