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Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction

Manchester City crestMan City
0-1full time, Sat 31 Oct
BrightonBrighton & Hove Albion crest
2-1predicted score (10%)
60%both teams score
60%over 2.5 goals
1.91-1.20expected goals

After removing the margin, Man City 58%, draw 22% and Brighton 20% reflect the average of 6 UK bookmakers

The model’s view

In the Premier League, Man City are 2nd with 21 points from 9 games Brighton sit 3rd with 19 points from 9 games, 2 points behind

Man City's last 6 matches brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 19 scored and 9 conceded Brighton scored 15 and conceded 6 across their last 6 matches, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss

So far this season, 62% of Man City games saw both teams score and 75% had more than 2.5 goals; for Brighton those figures are 25% and 62%. Man City's expected goals sit at 2.12 created and 1.30 allowed per game; Brighton's are 2.03 created and 1.42 allowed

Since August 2024, our results show 4 meetings, with 0 wins for Man City, 2 for Brighton and 2 draws Their most recent meeting, Wednesday 7 January 2026, ended Man City 1-1 Brighton

Semenyo, a regular starter this season, is expected to be absent for Man City.

The likeliest outcome the model gives is a Man City win at 53%; the draw stands at 24% and Brighton 23%. Expected goals behind it: 1.91 for Man City, 1.20 for Brighton. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers rate it at 58%, higher than our figure

Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion At 10.9%, 1-1 is the likeliest single exact score; 2-1 is the likeliest score within the result we favor.

Stats: Man City v Brighton

Per gameManchester City crestMan CityBrighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton
Games55
Goals scored a game2.802.40
Goals conceded a game1.800.80
Both teams scored80%20%
Over 2.5 goals100%60%
Clean sheets20%60%
Corners won / conceded5.2 / 4.25.0 / 5.5
Yellow cards a game1.82.5
xG for / against2.30 / 1.701.51 / 1.08

Best UK odds and fair prices

Match resultMan City win53%10/114/6 Betfred-10.9%
Draw24%10/37/2 bet365+5.8%
Brighton win23%10/34/1 bet365+10.0%
Double chanceMan City or draw77%3/10
Brighton or draw47%11/10
Draw no betMan City70%4/9
Brighton30%9/4
Both teams to scoreYes60%4/6
No40%6/4
GoalsOver 1.582%2/9
Over 2.560%4/62/5 bet365-16.1%
Under 2.540%6/42/1 bet365+20.1%
Over 3.538%13/8
Result and BTTSMan City and yes28%5/2
Draw and yes18%9/2
Brighton and yes13%13/2
Result and goalsMan City and over 2.537%7/4
Brighton and over 2.515%11/2
Man City and under 2.516%5/1
Brighton and under 2.58%12/1
Half time / full timeMan City / Man City34%2/1
Draw / Man City17%5/1
Brighton / Brighton13%13/2
Draw / Draw12%7/1
CornersOver 9.560%4/6
Over 10.549%21/20
CardsOver 3.547%11/10
Over 4.530%9/4

Fair price = 1 ÷ our chance football-data.co.uk supplies the bookmaker prices, but only for match odds and over/under 2.5. Edge appears when both values are available.

Chances for goalscorers and cards

Manchester City crestMan CityHaaland FWD96.649%21/200%
Manchester City crestMan CityFoden MID12.341%6/422%
Manchester City crestMan CityO'Reilly DEF01.225%3/122%
Manchester City crestMan CityCherki MID41.824%10/328%
Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrightonYalcouyé MID21.522%7/20%
Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrightonKostoulas FWD32.416%5/112%
Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrightonAyari MID32.014%6/112%
Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrightonGroß MID32.214%13/235%

The Fantasy Premier League feed supplies goals, xG, minutes and bookings for players. We combine these with our expected team goals and the referee's card rate to set chances. Players appear only when they're at least 75% likely to play

The starting elevens

Manchester City crestMan City 4-3-3

  1. Donnarumma, Gianluigi.GK
  2. Nunes, Matheus.DEF
  3. Gvardiol, Josko.DEF
  4. Anderson, Elliot.MID
  5. Khusanov, Abdukodir.DEF
  6. Dias, Rúben.DEF
  7. Bouaddi, Ayyoub.MID
  8. Fernández, Enzo.MID
  9. Haaland, Erling.FWD
  10. Ndiaye, Iliman.FWD
  11. Doku, Jérémy.FWD

Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton 4-2-3-1

  1. Verbruggen, Bart.GK
  2. CostinhaDEF
  3. Boscagli, Olivier.DEF
  4. Andrés, Chema.MID
  5. Vuskovic, Luka.DEF
  6. Dunk, Lewis.DEF
  7. Gómez, Diego.MID
  8. Gross, Pascal.MID
  9. Kostoulas, Charalambos.FWD
  10. Ayari, Yasin.MID
  11. De Cuyper, Maxim.MID

ESPN provides the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Chances for each exact score

Each score's chance in %, with Man City goals down the side and Brighton goals across
012345
05.14.83.21.30.40.1
17.910.96.12.40.70.2
28.29.85.82.30.70.2
35.26.23.71.50.40.1
42.53.01.80.70.20.1
50.91.10.70.30.10.0

Scoring times

151-155316-304531-457646-604561-756576-90

Man City, 11 games and Brighton, 11 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.

Cards and corners

Form guide

Manchester City crestManchester City

Man City's last 6
Result
Wed 28 Octv Brighton2-2D
Sat 24 Octat Aston Villa1-2L
Sat 17 Octv Ipswich3-2W
Sun 11 Octat Liverpool3-0W
Sun 20 Sepv Sunderland5-3W
Thu 17 Sepv Norwich5-0W

Man City scores come first.

Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton & Hove Albion

Brighton's last 6
Result
Wed 28 Octat Man City2-2D
Sun 25 Octat Liverpool0-2L
Sun 18 Octv Crystal Palace5-0W
Sat 10 Octat Sunderland2-0W
Sat 19 Sepv Arsenal3-0W
Wed 16 Sepat Man United3-2W

Brighton scores come first.

Head to head

Wed 7 Jan 2026Premier LeagueMan City 1-1 Brighton1-08
Sun 31 Aug 2025Premier LeagueBrighton 2-1 Man City0-15
Sat 15 Mar 2025Premier LeagueMan City 2-2 Brighton2-19
Sat 9 Nov 2024Premier LeagueBrighton 2-1 Man City0-14

Premier League standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal crestArsenal9801+924
2Manchester City crestManchester City9702+1021
3Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton & Hove Albion9612+1719
4Chelsea crestChelsea9513+416
5Liverpool crestLiverpool9432+215

The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.

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