Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United prediction
Our own analysis
This FA Cup tie puts a League Two side against a League One side, 1 division apart Both clubs are rated by the model on the same scale, which uses league games and earlier cup ties.
Across their last 6 matches, Bristol Rovers recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats, with 4 scored and 12 conceded. Cambridge's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 8 scored and 10 conceded.
This season, both sides scored in 43% of Bristol Rovers games, and 50% of matches went past 2.5 goals. Cambridge's figures are 86% and 64%. Bristol Rovers' expected goals show 1.65 created and 1.29 allowed a game; Cambridge show 1.30 created and 1.54 allowed.
Our results list 4 meetings since August 2024: Bristol Rovers took 3 wins, Cambridge 1 and 0 matches ended level. Their most recent meeting, on Saturday 14 February 2026, ended Cambridge 3-1 Bristol Rvs.
At 45%, a Cambridge win is the most likely result from the model, with Bristol Rovers 27% and the draw 28%. Its expected goals are 1.08 for Bristol Rovers and 1.47 for Cambridge.
Score prediction: Bristol Rovers 0-1 Cambridge United. At 13.1%, 1-1 is the single likeliest exact score. Within the result we lean to, 0-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Bristol Rovers v Cambridge
| Per game |  Bristol Rovers |  Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 4.0 | 10.8 / 6.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.29 / 1.63 | 1.61 / 1.75 |
| Per game | Bristol Rovers | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.21 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.64 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 7% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 3.7 | 8.4 / 5.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.65 / 1.29 | 1.30 / 1.54 |
| Per game | Bristol Rovers | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.7 / 3.0 | 7.4 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| xG for / against | 2.34 / 1.01 | 1.29 / 1.71 |
| Per game | Bristol Rovers | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.0 / 5.5 | 5.5 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 1.8 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Bristol Rovers win | 27% | 11/4 |
| Draw | 28% | 11/4 | |
| Cambridge win | 45% | 6/5 | |
| Double chance | Bristol Rovers or draw | 55% | 5/6 |
| Cambridge or draw | 73% | 4/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Bristol Rovers | 37% | 13/8 |
| Cambridge | 63% | 8/13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 10/11 |
| No | 48% | 21/20 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | 4/11 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Result and BTTS | Bristol Rovers and yes | 13% | 7/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Cambridge and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Result and goals | Bristol Rovers and over 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 |
| Cambridge and over 2.5 | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Bristol Rovers and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Cambridge and under 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Cambridge / Cambridge | 28% | 11/4 |
| Draw / Cambridge | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Bristol Rovers / Bristol Rovers | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 60% | 4/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 51% | evens |
| Over 4.5 | 34% | 2/1 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. For this match, UK bookmaker prices aren't in our feed; football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-ups we predict
Bristol Rovers 3-4-3
- Young, BradGK
- James, TomMID
- Sparkes, JackMID
- Kelly, CiaranDEF
- Kilgour, AlfieDEF
- Gough, KeenanDEF
- Smallwood, RichardMID
- Mola, ClintonMID
- Cavegn, FabrizioFWD
- Forde, ShaqaiFWD
- Appiah, ArvinFWD
They started Sat 31 Oct at Fleetwood Town
Cambridge 3-4-2-1
- Eastwood, JakeGK
- Bennett, LiamMID
- Bradshaw, ZakMID
- Perry, CallumDEF
- Watts, KellandDEF
- Heffernan, Cathal.DEF
- Hoddle, George.MID
- Ruddock Mpanzu, Pelly.MID
- Appere, Louis.FWD
- Knight, Ben.FWD
- Kaikai, Sullay.FWD
They started Sat 31 Oct at Leyton Orient.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven players who started their latest match. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, they replace these line-ups about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 13.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Bristol Rovers has 15 games; Cambridge, 16 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- 10.7corners are expected (league 9.9; Cambridge 5.9; Bristol Rovers 4.8)
- 3.8yellow cards are expected (league 3.7)
Form from recent matches
Bristol Rovers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Swindon | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Salford | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Shrewsbury | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Barnet | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Crewe | 1-3 | L |
Bristol Rovers comes first in the scores.
Cambridge United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Leyton Orient | 0-3 | L |
| Tue 27 Oct | at Sheffield Wednesday | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Plymouth | 2-3 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Wycombe | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Barnsley | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Blackpool | 1-0 | W |
The scores show Cambridge first.
Head to head
| Sat 14 Feb 2026 | League Two | Cambridge 3-1 Bristol Rvs | 1-1 | 8 |
| Sat 23 Aug 2025 | League Two | Bristol Rvs 1-0 Cambridge | 1-0 | 7 |
| Sat 4 Jan 2025 | League One | Cambridge 0-1 Bristol Rvs | 0-1 | 6 |
| Sat 31 Aug 2024 | League One | Bristol Rvs 2-0 Cambridge | 1-0 | 13 |